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082

Case 082Unit economicsCore

If you were to open a restaurant, what are the key concerns? Quantify them for Chulhavik Dining's Rs 1.5 crore, 80-seat outlet at 1.5 and at 2.5 table turns a day, and say which risk matters most.

General AtlanticBeijing · 2014

1The situation

Chulhavik Dining runs casual dining restaurants and wants growth money to open more. Your fund asks you to work out the economics of one new outlet before looking at the chain. A new 80-seat outlet costs Rs 1.5 crore to fit out and equip. Rent is Rs 4 lakh a month. The average bill is Rs 700 per diner, food and beverage cost is 33% of revenue, and staff, power and other running costs come to Rs 6 lakh a month.

The founder's plan assumes 2.5 table turns a day, meaning every seat is filled two and a half times a day. The landlord's broker says 1.5 turns is normal for the area. Assume 30 trading days a month and ignore tax and delivery for now.

2Your task

Work out monthly profit and payback at 1.5 and 2.5 turns, find the break-even, and name the risk that decides whether the outlet works.

Quick check

Which change hurts payback more: dropping from 2.5 to 1.5 turns a day, or rent rising 50%?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Footfall is the risk that decides it: payback is about 22 months at 1.5 turns and about 8 months at 2.5. Each diner leaves Rs 469 after food cost, against Rs 10 lakh of fixed cost a month, so the outlet breaks even at 0.89 turns. Monthly profit is Rs 6.88 lakh at 1.5 turns and Rs 18.14 lakh at 2.5. Rent matters far less: 50% more rent costs Rs 2 lakh a month.

Step 1How should you organise the concerns before doing any maths?

A restaurant has the same shape as a cinema or a gym: a big cost to open, a fixed bill every month, and a margin on every customer who walks in. So the concerns sort into three numbers: what it costs to open, what it costs to keep the doors open, and how many people come through them. Everything else on the usual list, the chef, the menu, the location, the licences, matters because it moves one of those three numbers. An interviewer who asks about key concerns is checking whether you can turn a list into that structure and then rank it.

Step 2What does each diner contribute, and what has to be covered?

Each diner pays Rs 700 and food costs 33% of that, so each cover leaves Rs 469 to pay for rent, staff and everything else. The fixed bill is Rs 4 lakh of rent plus Rs 6 lakh of staff and running costs, Rs 10 lakh a month. Dividing Rs 10 lakh by Rs 469 gives 2,132 covers a month, or 71 a day. With 80 seats that is 0.89 turns a day just to break even.

The relationship
Profit=80×t×30×700×(1−0.33)−10,00,000\text{Profit} = 80 \times t \times 30 \times 700 \times (1 - 0.33) - 10{,}00{,}000
ttable turns a day
80 x t x 30covers a month
700 x (1 - 0.33)Rs 469 left from each cover after food cost
10,00,000rent plus staff and running costs, Rs 10 lakh a month
What it says in wordsMonthly profit is covers times what each cover leaves, minus the fixed Rs 10 lakh.
Step 3What are profit and payback at 1.5 and at 2.5 turns?

At 1.5 turns the outlet serves 3,600 covers a month, Rs 25.2 lakh of revenue. Food costs Rs 8.32 lakh and the fixed bill Rs 10 lakh, leaving Rs 6.88 lakh a month, so the Rs 1.5 crore fit-out pays back in about 22 months. At 2.5 turns it serves 6,000 covers, Rs 42 lakh of revenue, and keeps Rs 18.14 lakh: payback in about 8 months. The same outlet, same rent and same menu is either a two-year bet or an eight-month one.

Table turns move payback far more than rent doesRs 6.88 lakhpayback 22 months1.5 turns a dayrevenue Rs 25.2 lakhRs 18.14 lakhpayback 8 months2.5 turns a dayrevenue Rs 42.0 lakhRs 4.88 lakhpayback 31 months1.5 turns, rent +50%revenue Rs 25.2 lakhMonthly profit before taxOne extra turn a day adds Rs 11.3 lakh a month; 50% more rent takes away Rs 2 lakh
Moving from 1.5 to 2.5 table turns lifts monthly profit from Rs 6.88 lakh to Rs 18.14 lakh and cuts payback from about 22 to about 8 months, while a 50% rent rise only stretches the 1.5-turn payback to 31 months.
Rs lakh a month1.5 turns2.5 turns1.5 turns, rent +50%
Covers3,6006,0003,600
Revenue25.2042.0025.20
Food and beverage, 33%8.3213.868.32
Rent4.004.006.00
Staff and running costs6.006.006.00
Profit before tax6.8818.144.88
Payback on Rs 150 lakh, months21.88.330.7
Payback runs from 8.3 months at 2.5 turns to 21.8 months at 1.5 turns, and a 50% rent rise at 1.5 turns pushes it to 30.7 months.
Step 4Which risk matters most, and why is it not rent?

Rent feels like the big risk because it is fixed and signed for years. But a 50% rent rise costs Rs 2 lakh a month. One table turn a day is 2,400 covers a month at Rs 469 each, about Rs 11.3 lakh, so footfall moves profit more than five times as much as a large rent shock. That is the operating-leverage point: once the fixed bill is covered at 0.89 turns, nearly half of every extra rupee of revenue falls to profit. The flip side is just as steep. At 1 turn a day the outlet makes only Rs 1.26 lakh a month and needs 10 years to pay back.

Every cover adds Rs 469; the fixed Rs 10 lakh a month is covered at 0.89 turns-100+10+200.511.522.53table turns a dayRs lakh a monthbreak-even 0.89 turns1.5 turns: Rs 6.9 lakh2.5 turns: Rs 18.1 lakh
Profit rises in a straight line with table turns, from a Rs 10 lakh monthly loss with no diners to break-even at 0.89 turns, so the gap between the broker's 1.5 turns and the founder's 2.5 is worth Rs 11.3 lakh a month.
Step 5What would you check before funding more outlets?

Ask for turns by outlet, by weekday and weekend, and by outlet age, not the founder's chain average. A new outlet that sits at 1.5 turns for its first six months burns most of a year of the payback clock before it reaches plan. Then check the second-order costs this sketch leaves out: delivery aggregator commissions if delivery is part of the plan, wage inflation, and the deposit and rent-free period on the lease. The limit of the exercise is that it treats 1.5 and 2.5 as given. The real diligence is finding out which one this location will deliver, from the chain's existing outlets in similar streets.

Where candidates lose it

Candidates list twenty concerns, from licences to the chef, without ranking them. The interviewer wants the list turned into opening cost, fixed cost and footfall, and then wants to hear which one decides the outcome.

The second miss is calling rent the biggest risk because it is the biggest fixed line. A turn of footfall is worth more than five times a 50% rent rise here, so the answer has to rank by sensitivity, not by size of the line.

What the interviewer asks next

  • Half of covers come through a delivery app that charges 25% commission. Redo the 1.5-turn case.
  • The landlord offers six months rent-free for a 15% higher rent after that. Take it?
  • How would you estimate table turns for a location before the outlet opens?
  • What would make you back the chain even if one outlet sits at 1.5 turns?

Asked at General Atlantic, Generalist, Beijing, 2014 (Wall Street Oasis): If you were to open a restaurant, what are some key concerns?

← Case 081Price Bimavik Insurtech's Series A from comparable rounds. Three recent rounds were done at 25x, 18x and 12x ARR for companies growing 200%, 120% and 70%. Bimavik has Rs 6 crore of ARR growing 150%. Fit the multiple to growth and name a price range.Case 083 →Size the market bottom-up for Vidyavik School Cloud, fee and attendance software for private schools: 3.5 lakh private schools, 40% with more than 300 students, 700 students on average in those, Rs 60 per student a year. What is the serviceable market, and why is a top-down figure useless here?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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