Case 011Capital structure decisionsCore
Aniketa Biotech can issue a Rs 500 crore five-year convertible at 3% with a 30% conversion premium, or straight debt at 9%. The share price is Rs 400. Compare the interest saving with the dilution if the stock doubles.
1The situation
Aniketa Biotech has 10 crore shares trading at Rs 400, a market value of Rs 4,000 crore. It needs Rs 500 crore for five years to fund late-stage trials. It can issue straight bonds at 9%, or a convertible bond at 3% that holders can swap into shares at Rs 520, a 30% premium to today's price. The tax rate is 25%.
The CFO likes the 3% coupon. A board member asks what happens if the trials succeed and the share price doubles to Rs 800 before the bonds mature.
2Your task
Work out the yearly saving, the shares issued on conversion, and what the convertible costs existing shareholders if the stock doubles. Say when the convertible is the better choice.
Quick check
If the stock doubles to Rs 800, how much more than Rs 500 crore are the converting holders' shares worth?
Worked solution
Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.
30-second answerThe answer to give first
The convertible saves Rs 30 crore a year before tax, Rs 112.5 crore after tax over five years, but if the stock doubles it hands holders shares worth about Rs 269 crore more than the debt. Conversion issues 96.2 lakh shares, 8.8% of the company, still less than the 11.1% a share sale today would cost. Straight debt is cheaper in hindsight if the price ends above about Rs 637.
Step 1Why is the coupon so low?
Because the investor is paid partly in something other than cash. A landlord who lets you rent at a low price in exchange for the right to buy the flat later at a fixed price is not being generous; he is holding an option on the flat. A convertible bondA bond that the holder can exchange for a fixed number of shares of the issuer, usually at a price above the current share price. pays a low coupon because the holder also owns the right to swap into shares at Rs 520, and that right is worth money. The 6 point gap to straight debt is the price of the option, paid in coupon rather than in cash up front.
Step 2What does Aniketa save, and what does it give up?
The saving is easy: 6% of Rs 500 crore is Rs 30 crore a year before tax, Rs 22.5 crore after tax, Rs 112.5 crore over five years. The cost appears only if the shares do well: conversion at Rs 520 issues 96.2 lakh new shares, and every rupee the price climbs above Rs 520 is value that goes to the new holders instead of existing shareholders. At Rs 800 the 96.2 lakh shares are worth Rs 769 crore, Rs 269 crore more than the debt they replace.
Step 3At what share price was straight debt the better deal?
Set the value handed over against the interest saved. Holders gain more than the Rs 112.5 crore of after-tax savings once the share price at maturity is above about Rs 637, roughly 59% above today. Below Rs 520 nobody converts and the convertible was simply cheap debt. Between Rs 520 and about Rs 637 it was still cheaper overall. Above that, the company would have been better off paying 9%. This ignores discounting, which would move the crossover slightly lower.
Step 4So which should Aniketa choose?
Frame it against the alternatives, not against zero. Compared with selling shares today, the convertible dilutes less, 8.8% against 11.1%, and only if the trials work; compared with straight debt, it saves cash now and gives value away only in the good outcome. For a biotech whose cash burn matters and whose share price could double or halve on one trial, that trade usually suits: pay little while the result is uncertain, and share the upside if it comes. The board should hear the Rs 269 crore figure clearly, because it is the price of the cheap coupon.
Where candidates lose it
The usual miss is calling the convertible cheap because the coupon is 3%. The coupon is cheap because the holder owns an option on the shares, and that option has a cost that appears only when things go well.
The other is computing dilution at today's price of Rs 400 instead of the Rs 520 conversion price, which overstates the new shares by 30%.
What the interviewer asks next
- What if the trials fail and the share price halves? What does the convertible look like then?
- How would a call option for Aniketa after year three change the analysis?
- Why do hedge funds buy convertibles and short the shares?
Company names and figures are illustrative.
