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023

Case 023Credit analysis and ratingsWarm up

Timed written test: from Kanvika Cement's income statement and balance sheet, compute interest cover, debt service cover, fixed charge cover, net leverage and the current ratio, and say which one breaches the lender's policy.

1The situation

Kanvika Cement's latest year: revenue Rs 2,400 crore, EBITDA Rs 480 crore, depreciation Rs 120 crore, interest Rs 110 crore and tax at 25% of profit before tax. Maintenance capex is Rs 150 crore, and Rs 150 crore of debt principal falls due in the coming year.

The balance sheet shows total debt of Rs 1,650 crore, cash of Rs 160 crore, current assets of Rs 700 crore and current liabilities of Rs 640 crore. The lender's policy asks for interest cover of at least 3.0x, debt service cover of at least 1.3x, fixed charge cover of at least 1.1x, net leverage of at most 3.5x and a current ratio of at least 1.0x. Use the definitions on the ratio sheet.

2Your task

Compute the five ratios and name the breach, within the time a written test allows.

Quick check

Which ratio breaches policy?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Fixed charge cover breaches: 1.03x against a 1.10x floor. Interest cover is 4.36x, debt service cover 1.61x, net leverage 3.10x and the current ratio 1.09x, all inside policy. Kanvika earns its interest comfortably, but once Rs 150 crore of maintenance capex is paid, the cash left barely covers interest and principal. The shortfall to policy is about Rs 18 crore a year.

Step 1How do you work fast without making mistakes?

Derive the few numbers every ratio shares, once, before any ratio. Profit before tax is EBITDA 480 less depreciation 120 less interest 110, Rs 250 crore, so tax is Rs 62.5 crore, and debt service is interest plus principal, Rs 260 crore. With those three written down, each ratio is a single division. Under time pressure, candidates lose marks by recomputing tax three times and getting it different twice.

Step 2What are the five ratios?

Interest cover is 480 over 110, 4.36x. Debt service cover is 480 less 62.5 of tax, over 260: 1.61x. Fixed charge cover also takes out Rs 150 crore of maintenance capex, the spending a cement plant cannot skip, leaving Rs 267.5 crore against Rs 260 crore: 1.03x. Net leverage is 1,650 less 160 of cash, over 480: 3.10x. The current ratio is 700 over 640: 1.09x.

Compute every ratio once, then flag the one exceptionRatioDefinition usedResultPolicyInterest coverEBITDA / interest4.36x>= 3.00xpassDebt service cover(EBITDA - tax) / (interest + principal)1.61x>= 1.30xpassFixed charge cover(EBITDA - capex - tax) / (interest + principal)1.03x>= 1.10xbreachNet leverage(debt - cash) / EBITDA3.10x<= 3.50xpassCurrent ratiocurrent assets / current liabilities1.09x>= 1.00xpassRs crore: EBITDA 480, interest 110, principal due 150, maintenance capex 150, tax 62.5
Of Kanvika's five ratios, interest cover of 4.36x, debt service cover of 1.61x, net leverage of 3.10x and a current ratio of 1.09x all pass, while fixed charge cover of 1.03x breaches the 1.10x floor.
Step 3Why does only one ratio breach?

Because it is the only one that counts the capex. A family earning well above its loan instalments can still be short each month once it pays the school fees it cannot skip. Kanvika's EBITDA covers interest easily, but cement plants eat cash to stay running, and after Rs 150 crore of maintenance capexSpending needed to keep existing plants working at their current capacity, as opposed to spending that adds new capacity. there is almost nothing to spare. That is why lenders to heavy industry care more about fixed charge cover than interest cover.

Step 4How do you write it up in the last two minutes?

One line per ratio, then one paragraph on the exception. State the breach, its size and its cause: fixed charge cover of 1.03x against 1.10x, a shortfall of about Rs 18 crore of cash a year, driven by maintenance capex rather than weak earnings. Then say what you would ask: whether Rs 150 crore is truly maintenance or includes growth spending, and whether principal could be reprofiled. Also note that interest cover on EBIT rather than EBITDA would be 3.27x, still a pass, because definitions vary and a written test rewards stating yours.

Where candidates lose it

The usual loss is running out of time because each ratio was computed from scratch. Tax and debt service appear in several ratios; work them out once.

The second is stopping at interest cover of 4.36x and concluding the credit is fine. The test is built so that the comfortable-looking ratios pass and the one that includes capex fails.

What the interviewer asks next

  • Kanvika says Rs 50 crore of the capex is expansion. Recompute the fixed charge cover.
  • How much principal would need to be deferred to restore 1.1x?
  • Which of these ratios would a rating analyst weight most for a cement company, and why?
← Case 022Panchalika Traders wants a Rs 5 crore loan against property valued at Rs 9 crore. Business cash flow is Rs 1.1 crore a year and the loan is for 10 years at 10.5%. Check loan to value and debt service cover and give a decision.Case 024 →Sponsor-owned Palveda Auto Parts has a Rs 450 crore unitranche at 5.0x EBITDA of Rs 90 crore. It wants to buy a rival with EBITDA of Rs 20 crore at 8x, funded by Rs 160 crore of extra debt. Compute pro forma leverage with and without Rs 5 crore of synergies, and set your terms for the add-on.

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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