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071

Case 071Structured finance and securitisationHard

A microfinance lender securitises a loan pool through pass-through certificates. Size the credit enhancement from expected loss, split it between cash collateral and over-collateral, and name the risks specific to this asset class.

Moody'sNew York · 2024

1The situation

Ojasvara Microfinance wants to securitise Rs 300 crore of its small, unsecured loans to women borrowers in joint liability groups, with loans of about Rs 40,000 each repaid weekly or monthly over one to two years. The pool will fund pass-through certificates (PTCs) sold to banks and mutual funds.

The rating agency estimates expected loss on the pool at 4%, and for the rating Ojasvara wants it requires credit enhancement of three times expected loss. Ojasvara can provide enhancement as over-collateral, putting more loans in the pool than the certificates it issues, or as a cash collateral deposit held for the investors.

2Your task

How much enhancement is needed, how would you split it, what does it protect against, and what risks are specific to microfinance pools?

Quick check

With 12% enhancement, what happens to the certificates if pool losses reach 15%?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Enhancement is 3 x 4% = 12% of the pool, Rs 36 crore; one workable split is 5% over-collateral, Rs 15 crore, and 7% cash collateral, Rs 21 crore. The PTCs are then Rs 285 crore and untouched until pool losses exceed 12%. Microfinance pools add event risk: unsecured loans, geographic concentration, disasters, political interference in collections, and borrowers who hold loans from several lenders.

Step 1Why is enhancement a multiple of expected loss?

Think of a group of friends lending a small sum to one of them. They expect a little to go unpaid, so they keep a buffer; but they want to be safe even in a very bad year, so the buffer is a few times what they expect to lose. Credit enhancement is sized so the certificates survive a loss several times the expected one, and the multiple rises with the rating wanted. Here 4% expected loss times 3 is 12%, Rs 36 crore on a Rs 300 crore pool. A higher rating would need a bigger multiple, and a pool with more uncertain losses would need more even at the same rating.

Enhancement of three times expected loss sits beneath the certificatesPass-throughcertificatesRs 285 croreOC 15Loan pool, Rs 300 crore300Cash 21Cash collateraldeposit, outside poolSizing the enhancementExpected loss4% x 300 = 12Multiple for the rating3 xEnhancement needed12% = 36of which over-collateral5% = 15of which cash collateral7% = 21Losses hit over-collateral first,then cash, then the certificates.Illustrative split; the rating agencyand the structure decide the real one.
The Rs 300 crore pool backs Rs 285 crore of certificates, with Rs 15 crore of over-collateral inside the pool and a Rs 21 crore cash deposit outside it, together 12% enhancement, three times the 4% expected loss.
Step 2How do you split it between cash and over-collateral?

The two forms behave differently. Over-collateralLoans placed in the pool beyond the value of the certificates issued, so the first losses fall on the originator’s extra loans. costs Ojasvara loans it could otherwise fund elsewhere; cash collateralA deposit, often a fixed deposit, set aside for investors and drawn to cover shortfalls in collections. costs it cash that earns a deposit rate while its loans earn far more. Cash is also more certain: the rupees are there on day one, while over-collateral is worth only what the extra loans collect. A common approach is a split such as 5% over-collateral and 7% cash, with the cash held non-amortising, so as the pool repays, the Rs 21 crore becomes a larger share: when the pool has halved to Rs 150 crore, the same deposit is 14% of it.

ScenarioPool loss, Rs croreOver-collateralCash collateralCertificates
Expected, 4%121200 (0.0%)
Designed stress, 12%3615210 (0.0%)
Severe event, 15%4515219 (3.2%)
At the expected 4% loss the over-collateral absorbs everything; at the designed 12% stress the whole Rs 36 crore of enhancement is used and the certificates are untouched; at 15% the certificates lose Rs 9 crore, 3.2%.
Losses eat the enhancement first, then the certificatesExpected, 4%loss Rs 12 croreOC 12Certificates untouchedDesigned stress, 12%loss Rs 36 croreOC 15Cash 21Certificates untouchedSevere event, 15%loss Rs 45 croreOC 15Cash 21PTC 9Certificates lose 3.2%36: enhancement used upRs crore of pool losses, absorbed in order: over-collateral, then cash collateral, then the certificates.
Pool losses fall first on the Rs 15 crore of over-collateral and then on the Rs 21 crore cash deposit, so the certificates are untouched up to a 12% loss and lose 3.2% of their value at a 15% loss.
Step 3What risks are specific to microfinance pools?

Name the risks that make a 4% expected loss unreliable. Microfinance losses are low in normal times and jump in events, so the tail, not the average, drives the rating. The loans are unsecured and rely on group pressure and regular field collection; anything that stops collections, a flood, a pandemic lockdown or a political call not to repay, can move losses from 2% to 20% in months. Pools are often concentrated in a few districts or states, so one event hits many loans. Borrowers may hold loans from several lenders, which hides over-indebtedness. The servicer collects cash from borrowers, so if Ojasvara itself is in trouble, collections and commingled cash are at risk. Say what you would ask for: geographic limits in the pool, a back-up servicer, and the originator's retained share. Retention and other securitisation rules should be confirmed against the current regulations rather than quoted from memory.

Where candidates lose it

Candidates often size enhancement at 4%, the expected loss, and call the certificates safe. Enhancement at expected loss protects against an average year only; the rating is about a bad one.

The other miss is treating cash and over-collateral as identical. Cash is certain and costly; over-collateral is cheaper but only as good as the extra loans, and in a microfinance event those loans fail at the same time as the rest.

What the interviewer asks next

  • How would excess interest spread on the pool add to the enhancement?
  • The pool is 40% concentrated in one state. How would you change the enhancement?
  • Should the cash collateral amortise as the pool pays down? Who wants which answer?
  • How would a back-up servicer arrangement change your view of the certificates?

Asked at Moody's, Credit Risk, New York, 2024 (Wall Street Oasis): What is structured finance, how would you evaluate it, and what are the credit risks?

← Case 070A hydro project suffers a 20% cost overrun and a one-year delay. Compute the extra interest during construction, the funding gap and who funds it, and the effect on debt service cover.Case 072 →Overnight case study: an aviation services company offers a second lien loan behind a larger first lien. Build base and downside cases, compute value cover at 6x and 4x EBITDA, and give an invest or pass view.

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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