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016

Case 016Interest rate derivativesCore

Build a DV01-neutral two-year versus ten-year swap steepener with Rs 100 crore of ten-year, given DV01s of Rs 190 and Rs 700 per crore. Size the two-year leg and find the P&L if two-year rates fall 20 bp and ten-year rates rise 5 bp.

1The situation

The rates desk at Vashishti Capital expects the central bank to cut the policy rate over the next few months while heavy government borrowing keeps long-dated yields under pressure. The view is that the gap between two-year and ten-year swap rates will widen, whatever happens to the general level of rates. The two-year swap is at 6.60% and the ten-year at 7.10%.

The desk wants Rs 100 crore of ten-year swaps in the trade. A two-year swap has a DV01 of Rs 190 per basis point per Rs 1 crore of notional; a ten-year swap has Rs 700. Ignore carry, roll-down and bid-offer for the sizing.

2Your task

Which side of each swap does the desk take, how much two-year notional makes the trade neutral to a parallel move, what does it make if two-year rates fall 20 bp and ten-year rates rise 5 bp, and what risks are left?

Quick check

Before sizing: to be neutral to a parallel move, is the two-year notional larger or smaller than the Rs 100 crore of ten-year, and by roughly how much?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Receive fixed on about Rs 368.4 crore of two-year swaps and pay fixed on Rs 100 crore of ten-year: each leg then carries Rs 70,000 per basis point. The two-year leg makes 20 times Rs 70,000, Rs 14.0 lakh, and the ten-year leg 5 times Rs 70,000, Rs 3.5 lakh, so the trade makes Rs 17.5 lakh on 25 bp of steepening. A parallel move makes nothing, because the legs offset. What is left is a bet on the spread, with curve beta, carry and drift in the DV01s as the risks.

Step 1Which side of each swap makes a steepener?

Picture a plank resting on two bricks, one short and one tall. If you are paid on how steep the plank is, you do not care whether someone raises the whole floor; you care whether the short brick sinks or the tall one grows. A steepener is paid when the long rate rises relative to the short rate, so the desk receives fixed on the two-year, which gains when two-year rates fall, and pays fixed on the ten-year, which gains when ten-year rates rise. Each leg's sensitivity is measured by its DV01The change in the value of a position for a one basis point move in rates, in rupees. For a swap it grows roughly with the tenor and the notional., and the trick of the trade is to make the two DV01s equal so that a parallel move in both rates cancels out.

Step 2How big must the two-year leg be?
The relationship
N2y=N10y×DV0110yDV012y=100×700190=368.42 croreN_{2y} = N_{10y} \times \frac{DV01_{10y}}{DV01_{2y}} = 100 \times \frac{700}{190} = 368.42\text{ crore}
N_{2y}, N_{10y}the notionals of the two legs, in Rs crore
DV01_{10y}, DV01_{2y}rupees per basis point per Rs 1 crore of notional, 700 and 190
What it says in wordsMake the rupees per basis point on the two legs equal: Rs 100 crore of ten-year at Rs 700 per crore needs Rs 368.42 crore of two-year at Rs 190 per crore, Rs 70,000 a basis point each way.

The ten-year leg carries 100 times Rs 700, Rs 70,000 for every basis point. To carry the same Rs 70,000 on the two-year leg at Rs 190 a crore the desk needs Rs 368.42 crore of notional, which rounds in practice to Rs 368 crore or Rs 370 crore depending on the ticket size. The gross notional is about Rs 468 crore, which is what the desk's counterparty lines and margin will see, even though the net rate risk to a parallel move is close to zero.

A DV01-neutral steepener: paid on the gap between 2 and 10 years, not on the level6.4%6.6%6.8%7.0%7.2%1y2y3y5y7y10yswap tenorbefore (dashed)after (solid)2y: -20 bp, receive fixed+Rs 14.0 lakh10y: +5 bp, pay fixed+Rs 3.5 lakhThe DV01 balance2y leg368.4 crore x Rs 19010y leg100 crore x Rs 700each = Rs 70,000 per bpParallel move: the legs cancelSpread widens 25 bp:25 x 70,000 = Rs 17.5 lakhCurve levels are illustrative
With Rs 368.4 crore of two-year received and Rs 100 crore of ten-year paid, both legs carry Rs 70,000 per basis point, so a parallel move cancels and the 20 bp fall at two years plus the 5 bp rise at ten years earns 25 times Rs 70,000, Rs 17.5 lakh.
Step 3What does the trade make, and on which moves?

Each leg's P&L is its DV01 times the move, with the sign set by the side. The two-year rate falls 20 bp and the desk receives fixed, so that leg gains 20 times Rs 70,000, Rs 14.0 lakh; the ten-year rate rises 5 bp and the desk pays fixed, so that leg gains 5 times Rs 70,000, Rs 3.5 lakh; together Rs 17.5 lakh. The cleaner way to say it: the trade earns Rs 70,000 for every basis point the two-to-ten spread widens, and the spread went from 50 bp to 75 bp. The table checks the claim against moves the desk does not want to bet on.

Scenario2y move, bp10y move, bpSpread change, bpP&L, Rs lakh
Steepener: 2y -20, 10y +5-20+5+25+17.5
Parallel up 10+10+10+00.0
Parallel down 10-10-10+00.0
Bear flattener: 2y +15, 10y +5+15+5-10-7.0
The trade earns Rs 70,000 per basis point of change in the two-to-ten spread: Rs 17.5 lakh when it widens 25 bp, nothing on a parallel move either way, and a loss of Rs 7.0 lakh when it narrows 10 bp.
Step 4What would you flag before putting it on?

Three things, each with a reason. DV01-neutral is not move-neutral: when rates reprice on a policy surprise, two-year rates usually move more than ten-year rates, so a sharp rise in all rates often flattens the curve and costs this trade money even though each basis point is balanced. Desks that worry about this weight the legs by the historical ratio of moves, a beta weighting, rather than one for one. Second, carry and roll-down are not zero: the desk receives one fixed rate and pays another on very different notionals, against floating legs that also differ, and the net running cost or income should be computed before the trade, because a view that takes six months to arrive can be eaten by negative carry. Third, the DV01s drift: in three months the two-year swap is a 1.75-year swap with a smaller DV01, so the hedge ratio has to be reset.

Say the limits of the working. The DV01s are given per crore and treated as constant, which is fine for moves of a few tens of basis points but ignores convexity; the curve in the figure is illustrative; and the P&L is the immediate mark, before any carry. The judgement for the desk is that the trade expresses the view it holds, the spread, and not the one it does not hold, the level, which is the point of sizing it this way.

Where candidates lose it

Candidates put on equal notionals, Rs 100 crore each side. That trade is dominated by the ten-year leg: a parallel 10 bp rise makes about Rs 5.1 lakh, so the desk owns a large bet that rates rise and only a small bet on the curve.

The second loss is getting the sides backwards. Paying fixed on the two-year and receiving on the ten-year is a flattener, and the candidate who sizes it perfectly but on the wrong sides loses Rs 17.5 lakh on exactly the move the desk predicted.

What the interviewer asks next

  • Over the last two years the ten-year rate has moved 0.6 bp for every 1 bp in the two-year. Re-size the trade on that beta and say what it now bets on.
  • Compute the net carry of the trade if the floating rate on both swaps is 6.50%.
  • How would you express the same view with government bond futures instead of swaps?
  • Three months pass and nothing moves. What has happened to the DV01 balance?
← Case 015A fund bought Rs 25 crore of CDS protection at 200 bp running. The reference company defaults 40 days after the last coupon date and the auction sets recovery at 35%. What does the seller pay, and what accrued premium does the buyer owe?Case 017 →A sugar mill sells futures at Rs 38,000 a tonne to hedge a sale in four months. At delivery spot is Rs 35,500 and the future Rs 36,300. What price does it effectively get, and what if the basis had widened to minus Rs 1,500 with the future unchanged?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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