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015

Case 015Credit derivatives and counterparty riskWarm up

A fund bought Rs 25 crore of CDS protection at 200 bp running. The reference company defaults 40 days after the last coupon date and the auction sets recovery at 35%. What does the seller pay, and what accrued premium does the buyer owe?

1The situation

A credit fund bought protection on Pratapgad Housing Finance through a credit default swap with Rs 25 crore of notional, paying a running spread of 200 basis points a year in quarterly instalments. Forty days after the most recent coupon date the company misses a bond payment and a credit event is confirmed. The auction that follows sets the recovery value of the deliverable bonds at 35% of face.

The contract settles in cash and accrues premium on a 360-day year. Ignore any upfront payment made when the trade was struck.

2Your task

How much does the protection seller pay, how much accrued premium does the buyer owe for the 40 days, and what is the net settlement?

Quick check

Before computing: on a 35% recovery, does the protection seller pay 35% or 65% of the notional?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

The seller pays Rs 16.25 crore, 65% of Rs 25 crore, and the buyer owes about Rs 5.56 lakh of accrued premium, so the net cash to the buyer is about Rs 16.19 crore. Protection covers face less recovery, and the auction fixed recovery at 35%. The premium accrues from the last coupon date to the credit event: Rs 25 crore times 2% times 40 over 360. The contract then ends; no further premium is due.

Step 1What does the seller pay, and why that number?

Think of fire insurance on a house: the insurer pays what was lost, not what the house was worth, and if the walls are still standing the payout is smaller. A credit default swap pays face less recovery, so with the auction at 35% the seller owes 65% of Rs 25 crore, Rs 16.25 crore. The auctionThe market-wide process that sets a single recovery price for the deliverable bonds of a defaulted company, used to cash-settle every CDS on that name. matters because it fixes one recovery for every contract on the name, so the buyer does not need to own or find bonds to deliver. Under physical settlement the buyer would hand over Rs 25 crore face of bonds and receive Rs 25 crore, which is the same economics once the bonds' 35% value is counted.

Step 2What does the buyer owe for the 40 days?
The relationship
accrued=25 crore×2%×40360=555,556payout=25 crore×(1−0.35)=16.25 crore\text{accrued} = 25\text{ crore} \times 2\% \times \frac{40}{360} = 555,556 \qquad \text{payout} = 25\text{ crore} \times (1 - 0.35) = 16.25\text{ crore}
2%the running spread of 200 basis points a year
40/360days from the last coupon date to the credit event, on a 360-day year
1 - 0.35the loss given the 35% auction recovery
What it says in wordsThe buyer pays the premium earned up to the day of the credit event; the seller pays the loss on the notional. The two settle together.

Premium accrues daily from the last coupon date and stops at the credit event. At 200 basis points on Rs 25 crore the annual premium is Rs 50 lakh, so 40 days on a 360-day year is Rs 5.56 lakh. That is paid by the buyer at settlement, usually netted, so the buyer receives Rs 16.25 crore less Rs 5.56 lakh, about Rs 16.19 crore. The contract terminates on the credit event, so the remaining coupons that would have been paid over the swap's life are simply never due; the buyer stops paying and the seller stops being paid.

From the last coupon to the auction: what each side owes and whenLast coupon datequarterly premium paid up to hereCredit event, day 40payment default confirmedAuctionrecovery set at 35%Settlement40 days of premium accruingProtection buyer owesRs 5.56 lakh25 crore x 2% x 40 / 360accrued premium to the credit eventProtection seller paysRs 16.25 crore25 crore x (1 - 35%)net of accrual: Rs 16.19 crore to the buyerPanels are not to scale: the accrual is about one three-hundredth of the payout.
Forty days of premium accrue between the last coupon date and the credit event, Rs 5.56 lakh owed by the buyer, and the auction's 35% recovery fixes the seller's payment at 65% of Rs 25 crore, Rs 16.25 crore, so the buyer receives about Rs 16.19 crore net and the contract ends.
Settlement lineFormulaRs
Seller pays: loss on notional25 crore x (1 - 35%)162,500,000
Buyer pays: accrued premium25 crore x 2% x 40/360555,556
Net to the buyer161,944,444
The seller's Rs 16.25 crore less the buyer's Rs 5.56 lakh of accrued premium nets to Rs 161,944,444 paid to the buyer at settlement.
Step 3What would you add if the interviewer pushes?

Three things that separate a candidate who has seen a settlement from one who has read about it. The contract pays on the auction price even if the fund's own bonds trade differently, so a fund hedging a specific bond carries basis risk between that bond and the auction's cheapest deliverable. The day count and the exact accrual start, the last coupon date rather than the trade date, are contract terms and should be checked rather than assumed. And the seller's ability to pay Rs 16.25 crore is itself a credit risk; that is why these contracts are collateralised or cleared, and why the buyer's margin calls on the seller would have been rising as the spread widened in the weeks before the default.

Where candidates lose it

Candidates pay the recovery rather than the loss, quoting Rs 8.75 crore, 35% of notional. The seller pays what the bonds lost, 65%.

The second loss is accruing premium to the auction or settlement date rather than to the credit event, or forgetting it altogether. The 40 days is the number in the question for exactly that reason, and the accrued premium is about Rs 5.56 lakh, small but always asked.

What the interviewer asks next

  • The fund also owns Rs 25 crore face of a Pratapgad bond that trades at 30 after the auction. What is its net position?
  • The trade was struck with an upfront payment plus a 100 bp coupon instead of 200 bp running. What changes at settlement?
  • What does the seller do with its hedge, if any, once the auction price is set?
  • Why might the auction recovery differ from where the bonds traded the day before default?
← Case 014USD/INR spot is 83.00, one-year rupee rates 7% and dollar rates 5%, and the one-year forward is quoted at 85.50. Is that consistent with covered interest parity, and if not, build the arbitrage for USD 10 million.Case 016 →Build a DV01-neutral two-year versus ten-year swap steepener with Rs 100 crore of ten-year, given DV01s of Rs 190 and Rs 700 per crore. Size the two-year leg and find the P&L if two-year rates fall 20 bp and ten-year rates rise 5 bp.

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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