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030

Case 030Credit derivatives and counterparty riskCore

A fund buys five-year protection on Rs 50 crore of Jharsa Minerals bonds. The market spread is 350 bp, the standard running coupon 100 bp and the risky annuity 4.2. What is paid upfront, what is paid each quarter, and who pays whom?

1The situation

A credit fund holds Rs 50 crore of Jharsa Minerals bonds and wants five years of default protection. A dealer quotes the five-year CDS at a market spread of 350 basis points. Contracts on this name trade with a standard running coupon of 100 basis points a year, paid quarterly, and the dealer's model gives a risky annuity of 4.2 for five years.

The fund's analyst needs the cash flows for the trade ticket: what changes hands today, what changes hands each quarter, and in which direction.

2Your task

Compute the upfront payment and the quarterly coupon, say who pays each, and explain why the contract is quoted at 350 bp but pays 100 bp.

Quick check

The market spread is 350 bp and the contract pays a fixed 100 bp coupon. Who pays the upfront amount at inception?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

The buyer pays Rs 5.25 crore upfront to the seller, then Rs 12.5 lakh every quarter. The upfront is the market spread less the coupon, 250 bp, times the risky annuity of 4.2, which is 10.5% of Rs 50 crore. The quarterly coupon is 100 bp a year on Rs 50 crore divided by four. Both flows run from buyer to seller; the seller pays only if Jharsa defaults.

Step 1Why is the contract quoted at one number and paid at another?

Think of a rented flat with a fixed rent set years ago. If the market rent today is higher, a new tenant taking over the lease pays the landlord a lump sum for the right to keep paying the old rent. A standard CDS works the same way: every contract on Jharsa pays the same 100 bp coupon so that contracts are interchangeable and can be netted, and the difference between that coupon and the 350 bp the risk is actually worth is settled as a lump sum at the start. The market still talks in spread, 350 bp, because that is the price of the risk; the coupon is a plumbing convention, and the upfront is what reconciles the two.

Step 2How big is the upfront, and which way does it go?

The shortfall is 350 less 100, 250 bp a year for five years, but only while Jharsa has not defaulted. The risky annuityThe present value of receiving one unit a year for the life of the contract, counting only the years the name survives and discounting them. Here 4.2 for five years. of 4.2 turns that stream into a present value: 250 bp times 4.2 is 1050 bp, 10.5% of notional, Rs 5.25 crore on Rs 50 crore. The buyer pays it to the seller, because the buyer is the one who will underpay for five years. Note that the annuity is 4.2, not 5: a year of coupon is worth less than one both because it is discounted and because the name may have defaulted before it is due.

The relationship
Upfront=(s−c)×A×N=(0.0350−0.0100)×4.2×50=5.25 crore\text{Upfront} = (s - c)\times A \times N = (0.0350 - 0.0100)\times 4.2 \times 50 = 5.25 \text{ crore}
smarket spread, 350 bp
cfixed running coupon, 100 bp
Arisky annuity, 4.2
Nnotional, Rs 50 crore
What it says in wordsThe buyer pays today the present value of every basis point of coupon it will underpay over the life of the contract.
What the protection buyer pays, and whentodayyear 1year 2year 3year 4year 5upfront Rs 5.25 crorebuyer pays seller, todayRs 12.5 lakh every quarter, buyer pays seller20 running coupons at 100 bp a yearBars are drawn to show timing, not to a common scaleUpfront worked out350 bp market spreadless 100 bp coupon= 250 bp a yearx risky annuity 4.2= 10.5% of notional= Rs 5.25 croreon Rs 50 crore
The protection buyer pays Rs 5.25 crore to the seller at inception, 250 bp of spread shortfall times the risky annuity of 4.2 on Rs 50 crore, and then pays Rs 12.5 lakh at the end of each quarter for five years, twenty coupons in all.
Step 3What runs each quarter, and what does the seller owe?

The running coupon is 100 bp a year on Rs 50 crore, Rs 50 lakh a year, paid quarterly, so Rs 12.5 lakh at the end of each quarter from buyer to seller. In return the seller owes nothing unless Jharsa suffers a credit event, at which point the seller pays Rs 50 crore less the recovery value of the bonds, and the coupons stop. Over a full five years with no default the buyer will have paid Rs 5.25 crore plus twenty coupons totalling Rs 2 crore, about Rs 7.75 crore in all, undiscounted, for the protection. That is close to 350 bp a year on Rs 50 crore, Rs 1.75 crore a year, which is the sense check: the plumbing changes the timing of the payments, not their value.

State the limits. The risky annuity of 4.2 is a model output that depends on the assumed recovery and the hazard rate implied by the spread itself, so a different recovery assumption gives a slightly different upfront. The convention also includes an accrued-coupon adjustment on the trade date and the exact day count on each quarter; confirm both on the ticket rather than from memory. And the fund now has counterparty exposure to the dealer equal to the value of the protection, which rises exactly when Jharsa deteriorates, so the trade belongs under a collateral agreement.

Where candidates lose it

The common loss is multiplying the full 350 bp by the annuity and calling that the upfront, Rs 7.35 crore. That is the value of the whole protection, not what is paid today; the 100 bp coupon already pays for part of it, and only the 250 bp gap is settled upfront.

The second is getting the direction wrong, or hedging on it. The party that will underpay the running coupon relative to the market spread pays upfront. Here that is the buyer; on a name trading at 60 bp with a 100 bp coupon, it would be the seller.

What the interviewer asks next

  • The spread tightens to 250 bp a year later and the risky annuity is now 3.5. What is the fund's protection worth, and what does it receive if it unwinds?
  • Jharsa trades at 60 bp instead. Recompute the upfront and say who pays it.
  • Why does the risky annuity fall as the spread widens, and what does that do to the upfront on a distressed name?
  • The fund's dealer is itself a weak credit. What happens to the protection's value, and how is that managed?
← Case 029A clearing member defaults and closing out its book loses Rs 70 crore. Its initial margin is Rs 40 crore and its default fund contribution Rs 10 crore; the clearing corporation holds Rs 5 crore of its own capital in the waterfall and the other members' default fund is Rs 100 crore. Who bears what?Case 031 →A desk with a Rs 5 crore one-day VaR limit sits at Rs 4.6 crore, and a client trade would take it to Rs 5.6 crore. It can reject the trade, hedge with index futures to cut VaR by Rs 0.8 crore for Rs 3 lakh, or ask for a temporary limit. What do you do?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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