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088

Case 088Market making and trading scenariosCore

A client buys Rs 25 crore notional of three-month 105% calls on a stock at 400. Mid volatility is 28% and the desk charges 1.5 points. Price the charge, set up the hedge, and work the P&L if realised volatility turns out to be 32%.

1The situation

An institutional client asks your desk for three-month calls on Bhairavgad Cement, at Rs 400, struck at 105% of spot, Rs 420, on Rs 25 crore of notional: 625,000 shares. The stock pays no dividend in the period and the rate is 6.5%.

The desk's mid volatility for this strike and expiry is 28%, and it quotes the client 1.5 volatility points over mid. The desk will sell the calls and hedge the delta in the stock, rebalancing daily. Your head of desk wants the charge in rupees, the hedge, and what happens if the stock then realises 32% volatility over the three months.

2Your task

What does the 1.5 point charge earn, what hedge do you put on, and what is the desk's P&L if realised volatility is 32%?

Quick check

The desk sells at 29.5% and the stock realises 32% while the desk delta-hedges daily. What happens?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

The charge is worth about Rs 7.4 lakh, the hedge is about 272,177 shares bought, and at 32% realised the desk loses about Rs 12.4 lakh. At 28% the call is worth Rs 16.69 a share; at 29.5% the client pays Rs 17.87, Rs 1.12 crore in all. The delta at mid is 0.44, so the desk buys that share of the notional. Realising 32% means the stock moved more than the volatility sold, and the hedging losses exceed the premium collected.

Step 1What is the charge worth in rupees?

Price the call twice. At the 28% mid it is worth Rs 16.69 a share; at 29.5% it is Rs 17.87. The difference, Rs 1.18 a share, times 625,000 shares, is the desk's charge of about Rs 7.39 lakh, and it is roughly the option's vegaHow much an option price changes for a one point change in implied volatility. of Rs 0.79 a share times 1.5 points. It works like a dealer's margin on a used car: the screen price is the mid, the client pays a little above it, and the gap is what pays the dealer for holding the car until it is sold on. On the desk, the car is the risk of hedging the option for three months.

From the screen mid to a hedged client trade1. Mid at 28%Rs 16.69a share, the fair value2. Charge 1.5 vol pts+Rs 1.18= Rs 7.39 lakh in all3. Client pays 29.5%Rs 17.87Rs 1.12 crore premium4. Delta hedgebuy 2.72 lakh shdelta 0.44, Rs 10.9 crore625,000 shares of Bhairavgad Cement: Rs 25 crore notional at Rs 400.Vega: about Rs 4.92 lakh per volatility point on the whole trade.
The call is worth Rs 16.69 a share at mid, the 1.5 point charge adds Rs 1.18, the client pays Rs 1.12 crore, and the desk buys about 272,177 shares, delta 0.44, to hedge.
Step 2Why is the hedge about 0.44 of the notional, not 1?

A 105% call, three months out, moves about 44 paise for each rupee of the stock at today's price: the delta from the mid model is 0.44. The desk is short the call, so it is short that delta, and it buys 0.44 times 625,000, about 272,177 shares, roughly Rs 10.9 crore of stock. The hedge is right only at today's price: as the stock rises the delta rises and the desk must buy more, and as it falls the desk sells. That buy-high, sell-low rebalancing is the cost of being short gamma, and the premium is what pays for it.

Step 3What happens if realised volatility is 32%?

The hedging cost depends on how much the stock actually moves. If it moves exactly as 29.5% volatility implies, rebalancing losses use up the whole premium and the desk breaks even. If it realises 32%, the rebalancing losses are as if the desk had sold the option for its value at 32%, Rs 19.84 a share, so the desk is down Rs 1.98 a share, about Rs 12.4 lakh on the trade. Against mid the volatility miss is 4 points; the 1.5 point charge absorbs part of it and leaves 2.5 points of loss. The approximation assumes smooth daily moves and constant volatility; a single gap day would make the loss larger.

The desk keeps the charge only if realised volatility stays below what it sold0-20-10+10+20+17.226%+7.428%0.029.5%-12.432%-22.334%Realised volatility over the three months (Rs lakh on the trade)mid: desk keeps the chargethe case: 32% realised
The desk keeps Rs 7.4 lakh if the stock realises the 28% mid, breaks even at the 29.5% it sold, and loses about Rs 12.4 lakh at 32% and Rs 22.3 lakh at 34%.
Realised volatilityOption worth at that vol, Rs a shareDesk P&L, Rs a shareDesk P&L, Rs lakh
26.0%15.11+2.75+17.22
28.0%16.69+1.18+7.39
29.5%17.87+0.00+0.00
32.0%19.84-1.98-12.35
34.0%21.43-3.56-22.26
The desk sold at Rs 17.87 a share; its hedged result is that price less the option's value at the volatility the stock actually delivers, from plus Rs 17.2 lakh at 26% to minus Rs 22.3 lakh at 34%.

Close with what the desk does about it. It does not have to wait three months to find out: it can buy back some of the volatility in the listed market, or offset the gamma with another client's trade on the other side. A charge is a cushion against being wrong on volatility, not a profit, until the option has expired.

Where candidates lose it

The common loss is saying the desk is hedged and therefore safe. A delta hedge removes direction; it leaves the desk short gamma and short volatility, and that is the risk the 1.5 points are meant to pay for.

The second is mixing up the volatility charged and the delta. The client price uses 29.5%, but the desk hedges with the mid model's delta of 0.44; hedging at the client's volatility would skew the hedge slightly and is a common source of small, persistent losses.

What the interviewer asks next

  • How much realised volatility can the stock deliver before the desk's whole charge is gone?
  • The client wants to close the trade after a month with the stock at 430. What do you need to know to quote?
  • Why might the desk charge more than 1.5 points for a 120% strike?
← Case 087A stock reports results in five trading days. The one-week option trades at 60% implied volatility against 30% on a normal day. What move is priced for results day, and would you sell the one-week straddle or a calendar against the one-month at 38%?Case 089 →A bank's five-year swap with a mid-sized client has expected positive exposure of Rs 8, 12, 14, 11 and 5 crore by year. Default probability is 2% a year, loss given default 60%. Compute the CVA and say how collateral would change it.

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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