Case 025Stock pitchWarm up
Pitch Mirelia Foods, a packaged snacks maker with revenue of Rs 1,500 crore growing 11%, a 16% EBITDA margin and a P/E of 38x. Then answer the three follow-ups: why now, what is priced in, and what would make you wrong.
1The situation
Mirelia Foods sells chips, namkeen and baked snacks through general trade and modern retail. Revenue is Rs 1,500 crore, growing 11% a year for five years. The EBITDA margin is 16%, depreciation is 3% of revenue, there is no debt and Rs 10 crore of other income, so profit after 25% tax is about Rs 154 crore. The stock trades at 38x earnings, a market value of about Rs 5,842 crore. A national brand has just launched a cheaper range in Mirelia's strongest region.
Use a 12% required return and assume a mature snacks company trades at about 25x earnings in ten years.
2Your task
Give a one-line pitch, then answer: why now, what is priced in, and what would make you wrong.
Quick check
At 38x, what annual earnings growth for ten years does the price need to deliver a 12% return, with a 25x exit?
Worked solution
Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.
30-second answerThe answer to give first
The pitch: Mirelia is a good business priced as a great one. At 38x, a 12% return with a 25x exit needs earnings to grow about 17% a year for ten years, which on 11% revenue growth means the EBITDA margin rising from 16% to about 26%. With the margin flat, the return is about 6.4% a year. Why now: a national rival is attacking its core region. I would be wrong if a premium range could lift the margin into the mid-20s.
Step 1What makes a pitch complete?
Buying a house because it is a lovely house is not an investment case; buying it because it is lovely and priced like an ordinary one is. A pitch has three parts: what the business is, what the price already assumes, and what would prove you wrong. Most candidates deliver the first and stop. The interviewer's follow-ups are designed to find the missing two, so build them in before you speak.
Step 2What is priced in?
Work backwards from the price, as a reverse DCFStarting from the current price and solving for the growth or margins it implies, instead of forecasting them and solving for value. does. Rs 5,842 crore compounding at 12% for ten years is about Rs 18,146 crore; at 25x that needs profit of about Rs 726 crore in year ten, against Rs 154 crore today. That is earnings growth of about 16.8% a year, while revenue grows 11%, so the profit margin must rise from 10.2% to about 17.0%, an EBITDA margin of about 26%. If the margin stays at 16%, profit grows with revenue and the return is about 6.4% a year.
| Today | Year 10, price needs | Year 10, margin flat | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, Rs crore | 1,500 | 4,259 | 4,259 |
| Profit after tax, Rs crore | 154 | 726 | 437 |
| EBITDA margin | 16.0% | 25.7% | 16.0% |
| Return a year at 25x exit | 12.0% | 6.4% |
Step 3Why now, and what would make you wrong?
Why now: a national brand launching a cheaper range in Mirelia's strongest region threatens exactly the margin expansion the price needs, because the usual response is more promotion and dealer margin. What would make you wrong is evidence that the margin can reach the mid-20s, and you should name the test before the interviewer asks. A premium range at a 25% margin reaching 40% of sales, with the rest at 14%, lifts the blend only to about 18.4%. If management can show a path beyond that, through direct distribution or price increases that stick, the pitch fails and you say so.
Deliver it in that order when an interviewer asks you to pitch a stock: one line of thesis, one number for what is priced in, one catalyst, one test that would change your mind. Thirty seconds, and every follow-up already has an answer.
Where candidates lose it
Candidates pitch a quality company on its quality: strong brand, good growth, clean balance sheet. The interviewer then asks what is priced in, and the pitch has no answer, because quality is already in a 38x multiple.
The second miss is saying nothing could make you wrong. An analyst who cannot name the evidence that would change the view has an opinion, not a thesis.
What the interviewer asks next
- If you had to pitch Mirelia as a long, what would you need to believe?
- How would you check whether the rival's launch is hurting Mirelia before results?
- What multiple would make you comfortable with a 16% margin forever?
Asked at Point72, Equity Research, central, 2025 (Wall Street Oasis): then pitch a stock. HR will ask several questions about your stock pitch.
Company names and figures are illustrative.
