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074

Case 074Forensic accountingWarm up

Zorvan Holdings reports cash of Rs 3,000 crore earning 4% alongside debt of Rs 2,500 crore costing 11%. Why is that a red flag, and what would you check?

1The situation

Zorvan Holdings, a diversified industrial group, reports consolidated cash and bank deposits of Rs 3,000 crore, on which it earned Rs 120 crore of interest last year, about 4%. It also carries Rs 2,500 crore of borrowings at about 11%, Rs 275 crore of interest. EBITDA is Rs 900 crore and profit after tax Rs 450 crore. The investor presentation calls the company net cash.

Two notes to the accounts, near the back: fixed deposits of Rs 1,000 crore are lien-marked with banks as security for guarantees given on loans to a promoter group company; and Rs 500 crore of the cash is held by an overseas subsidiary.

2Your task

Explain why the combination needs explaining, what it costs, what you would check, and what the two notes change.

Quick check

What does holding both cost Zorvan each year, before tax?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Nobody sensible pays 11% to borrow while earning 4% on their own cash, so either the cash is not free to use or capital is being misallocated. The overlap costs Zorvan Rs 175 crore a year before tax, about 29% of profit after tax. Check where the cash sits and whether it is pledged. Here Rs 1,000 crore is lien-marked for a group company, so the net cash company is really carrying net debt.

Step 1Why does cheap cash beside costly debt need an explanation?

Imagine a neighbour with Rs 10 lakh in a savings account at 4% who is also paying 11% on a Rs 8 lakh personal loan. You would ask why he does not repay the loan. He might have a reason: the money is promised to someone, it is locked in a deposit he cannot break, or it is not really his. A company that holds costly debt and cheap cash together is in the same position: the arrangement loses money every year, so the cash is either not free or the management is not minding the shareholders' money.

Size it. If Zorvan used Rs 2,500 crore of its cash to repay all the debt, it would save Rs 275 crore of interest and give up Rs 100 crore of income: Rs 175 crore a year before tax, Rs 131 crore after, about 29% of the Rs 450 crore profit. That is a large cost to carry without a reason.

Cash at 4% beside debt at 11%: the overlap costs money every year, Rs croreCash 3,000earns 4%+120 a yearDebt 2,500costs 11%-275 a yearoverlap: 2,5002,500 x (11% - 4%)Rs 175 crore a yearRs 131 crore after tax,29% of profit
Zorvan's Rs 3,000 crore of cash earns Rs 120 crore a year while its Rs 2,500 crore of debt costs Rs 275 crore, so the overlap costs Rs 175 crore a year before tax, about 29% of profit after tax.
Step 2What would you check, in what order?

First, where the cash sits: parent or subsidiary, India or abroad, and whether a listed subsidiary with minority holders owns it. Second, whether it is free: notes on restricted cash, lien-marked deposits, margin money and escrow. Third, whether it is real: does the interest income match the balance through the year, and do operating cash flows over several years add up to a pile this size? Fourth, the debt: prepayment penalties, covenants, or a seasonal working-capital need. A low yield on reported cash is itself a warning, because cash that earns less than a plain bank deposit should makes you ask whether it was there all year. Compare the yield with what term deposits paid over the period, and confirm current rates rather than relying on memory.

Step 3What do Zorvan's two notes change?
Where is the Rs 3,000 crore, and can the company use it?Cash Rs 3,000 croreLien-marked forgroup guaranteesRs 1,000 croreNot the company's to use:treat as tied up, and theguarantee as a liabilityIn an overseassubsidiaryRs 500 croreUsable, at a cost:tax and approvals tobring it homeFree, in Indianbank depositsRs 1,500 croreThen why keep debt?Check prepayment terms,seasonal working capitalReported: net cash Rs 500 crore. Excluding the lien-marked deposits: net debt Rs 500 crore.Free Indian cash only: net debt Rs 1,000 crore (1.1x EBITDA), plus a Rs 1,000 crore guarantee
Of Zorvan's Rs 3,000 crore, Rs 1,000 crore is lien-marked for a group company's loans and Rs 500 crore sits abroad, so the reported net cash of Rs 500 crore becomes net debt of Rs 500 crore, or Rs 1,000 crore counting only free Indian cash.

The Rs 1,000 crore of lien-marked deposits explains part of the puzzle, and badly. That money backs a promoter group company's loans: if that company defaults, the banks take Zorvan's deposits. Treat it as tied up, and the reported net cash of Rs 500 crore becomes net debt of Rs 500 crore, with a Rs 1,000 crore guarantee to a related party sitting off the balance sheet. The Rs 500 crore abroad is a milder issue: usable, but bringing it home costs tax and time. Counting only free Indian cash, net debt is Rs 1,000 crore, 1.1x EBITDA.

MeasureRs croreWhat it counts
Net debt as presented-500All cash against all debt
Net debt, lien-marked cash excluded500Cash the company can use
Net debt, free Indian cash only1,000Cash usable without tax or approvals
Guarantee to group company1,000Off balance sheet, related party
Zorvan's net debt moves from a net cash Rs 500 crore as presented to Rs 500 crore once the lien-marked deposits are excluded, before counting the Rs 1,000 crore guarantee to a promoter group company.

The conclusion: the red flag was right to raise. The cash is partly not Zorvan's to use, and the reason is a related-party guarantee, a governance question as much as a balance sheet one. A benign answer, such as cash trapped abroad, would have cost Zorvan only tax; this answer puts minority shareholders behind a group company's lenders.

Where candidates lose it

Candidates add cash and debt and call the company net cash, which is what the presentation wants. The interviewer is testing whether you ask why the two coexist, and whether you read the notes where the answer usually sits.

The second loss is jumping straight to fraud. Some explanations are benign, such as cash trapped abroad or debt that is expensive to prepay. Size the cost, list the explanations, then let the notes decide.

What the interviewer asks next

  • How would you adjust Zorvan's valuation for the Rs 1,000 crore guarantee?
  • What would you look for in the cash flow statement to test whether the cash is real?
  • Zorvan says the debt carries a 3% prepayment penalty. Does that explain the arrangement?
← Case 073How would you analyse a stock? Walk the data sheet of Drishvan Cables, from the business to the numbers to the valuation, and end with a view.Case 075 →On the spot, give a two-line thesis on Aeronvik Aerospace after a quality grounding cut deliveries from 400 to 280 aircraft, and name the one number that would change your view.

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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