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002

Case 002Budgeting, variance and reportingWarm up

A beverage company missed budgeted EBITDA by Rs 22 crore. Build the bridge from budget to actual and write the three sentences for the board.

1The situation

Jalatarang Beverages budgeted EBITDA of Rs 150 crore for the year and delivered Rs 128 crore. The finance team has already split the gap by driver. A price increase added Rs 30 crore. Lower volumes cost Rs 28 crore. A shift in mix toward small, low-margin packs cost Rs 8 crore. PET resin and sugar prices took Rs 12 crore. Overheads ran Rs 4 crore over budget.

The CFO wants a one-page bridge and three sentences for the board pack tomorrow.

2Your task

Build the EBITDA bridge, order it so the board reads it correctly, and write the three sentences.

Quick check

Which single statement best describes Jalatarang's year?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

EBITDA was Rs 22 crore, or 14.7%, below budget, and the bridge shows two stories. The price rise added Rs 30 crore but volume fell enough to give back Rs 28 crore, and a drift to small packs cost Rs 8 crore, so commercial levers net to minus Rs 6 crore. PET and sugar inflation and an overhead overrun take the other Rs 16 crore.

Step 1Why build a bridge at all, when the gap is one number?

Rs 22 crore short tells a board nothing it can act on. A household that overspent by Rs 20,000 in a month needs to know whether it was school fees, a family wedding or groceries before it can decide anything. A bridge turns one variance into a list of causes, each owned by someone, in order of size. The board can then ask the sales head about volume and the procurement head about resin, rather than asking finance why the number is wrong. The format is the EBITDA bridgeA chart that starts at one EBITDA figure, adds and subtracts each cause of change as a floating bar, and ends at the other figure., read left to right.

From budget to actual EBITDA, Rs crore, grouped by who controls each cause150BudgetEBITDA+30Price-28Volume-8Pack mix-12PET, sugar-4Overheads128ActualEBITDACommercial levers net to -6; cost lines take -16; total gap -22, or 14.7% of budget
Jalatarang's EBITDA moves from a Rs 150 crore budget to a Rs 128 crore actual: price adds Rs 30 crore, volume takes Rs 28 crore, pack mix Rs 8 crore, PET and sugar Rs 12 crore and overheads Rs 4 crore.
Step 2In what order should the bars go?

Group the bars by who controls them, then order within each group. Put the commercial levers first, price, volume and mix, because they are linked: the price rise is the most likely reason volume fell. Showing them next to each other lets the board see that the price rise was nearly cancelled by volume, which a bridge sorted purely by size would split apart. Cost lines come next, input costs before overheads, because one is largely external and the other is fully controllable.

DriverRs crore% of budgetWho owns it
Price+30+20.0%Sales and marketing
Volume-28-18.7%Sales and marketing
Pack mix-8-5.3%Sales and marketing
Commercial, net-6-4.0%
PET and sugar-12-8.0%Procurement, partly external
Overheads-4-2.7%Every function
Costs, net-16-10.7%
Total gap-22-14.7%
Commercial levers net to minus Rs 6 crore, 4.0% of budget, while cost lines take Rs 16 crore, 10.7%; together they explain the full Rs 22 crore, 14.7% shortfall.
Step 3What are the three sentences?

Each sentence carries one idea, with the number in it. One: EBITDA was Rs 128 crore against a Rs 150 crore budget, Rs 22 crore or 14.7% short. Two: the price rise added Rs 30 crore but lower volume and a drift to small packs took back Rs 36 crore, so commercial levers cost a net Rs 6 crore. Three: PET and sugar inflation of Rs 12 crore and a Rs 4 crore overhead overrun account for the remaining Rs 16 crore. A fourth line, if the board allows it, says what management is doing about each.

Say the limit too. A driver split depends on the order in which effects are calculated: price measured on budgeted volume gives a slightly different split from price measured on actual volume, and the difference lands in volume. State the convention in a footnote. The bridge also cannot tell you whether the price rise was a good decision; that needs the volume the company would have lost anyway, which only a test market or an elasticity estimate can supply.

Where candidates lose it

The usual loss is sorting bars by size and calling the largest one the cause. Price at plus Rs 30 crore and volume at minus Rs 28 crore are the two biggest bars, yet together they are almost nothing; the real damage is in cost lines that look small on their own.

The second is writing board sentences without numbers. A board cannot weigh a cause it cannot size.

What the interviewer asks next

  • How would you test whether the price rise caused the volume fall?
  • PET prices are expected to fall next year. How would you show that in the forecast bridge?
  • How would you split the volume variance between market decline and share loss?
← Case 001A resort developer needs Rs 300 crore, earns nothing for two years and then earns three quarters of its cash in one season. Propose the loan structure.Case 003 →You get three years of partly blank statements for a machine tool maker. Fill them in, forecast free cash flow, and value the business.

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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