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019

Case 019Credit analysis and lendingWarm up

Place an apparel retailer on a rating grid using debt to EBITDA and FFO to debt, first as reported and then with store leases treated as debt.

S&P GlobalChicago · 2022TSTruist SecuritiesAtlanta · 2024

1The situation

Paridhan Apparel runs a chain of clothing stores. EBITDA is Rs 600 crore, stated after Rs 150 crore a year of store rent. Gross debt is Rs 1,500 crore and cash Rs 300 crore. Interest is Rs 120 crore, funds from operations (FFO, cash profit after interest and tax) are Rs 450 crore and capex is Rs 200 crore. The present value of its remaining store lease payments is Rs 900 crore, at an implied rate of about 8%.

Use an illustrative grid. Debt to EBITDA: below 1.5x AA, 1.5x to 2.5x A, 2.5x to 3.5x BBB. FFO to debt: above 45% AA, 30% to 45% A, 20% to 30% BBB.

2Your task

Place Paridhan on the grid as reported, then with leases treated as debt, and say what the adjustment changes.

Quick check

If you add Rs 900 crore of leases to debt, what must you also adjust?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

As reported Paridhan sits in the A band: net debt is 2.0x EBITDA and FFO is 37.5% of net debt. Treat Rs 900 crore of leases as debt and add Rs 150 crore of rent back to EBITDA, and leverage rises to 2.8x and FFO to debt falls to 25.1%, both BBB. For a retailer, leases are the adjustment that decides the rating.

Step 1Where does Paridhan sit as reported?

Net debt is Rs 1,500 crore less Rs 300 crore of cash, Rs 1,200 crore. Net debt to EBITDA is 2.0x and FFO to net debt is 37.5%, both inside the A band. On gross debt the picture is tighter: 2.5x and 30%, exactly on the boundary between A and BBB. Agencies differ on how much cash they net, so say which basis you used. Interest cover, EBITDA over interest, is a comfortable 5.0x.

Step 2Why are store leases treated like debt?

A retailer that signs a ten-year lease has promised fixed payments it cannot walk away from, just as if it had borrowed to buy the shop. A family renting a flat on a long contract is committed to the rent much as a family with a home loan is committed to the EMI. Rating analysts therefore add the present value of lease payments to debt, here Rs 900 crore, and treat the rent as debt service rather than an operating cost. Accounting standards now put most leases on the balance sheet, but how EBITDA treats rent still varies, so check the basis before comparing companies.

Step 3What do the adjusted ratios show?

Adjust both sides consistently. Debt becomes Rs 1,200 crore plus Rs 900 crore, Rs 2,100 crore. EBITDA before rent becomes Rs 750 crore. Leverage is 2.8x and FFO, adding back the Rs 78 crore of rent that repays lease principal, is Rs 528 crore, 25.1% of adjusted debt: both in the BBB band. Rent-adjusted cover, EBITDA before rent over interest plus rent, falls from 5.0x to 2.78x.

MeasureAs reportedBandLeases as debtBand
Debt, Rs crore1,2002,100
EBITDA, Rs crore600750
Debt / EBITDA2.0xA2.8xBBB
FFO, Rs crore450528
FFO / debt37.5%A25.1%BBB
EBITDA / (interest + rent)5.0x2.78x
On net debt Paridhan sits in the A band on both ratios; treating Rs 900 crore of leases as debt and adding rent back takes it to 2.8x and 25.1%, both in the BBB band.
Paridhan on an illustrative grid: leases move it down one bandAAABBB0x1x1.5x2x2.5x3x3.5x4x10%20%30%45%60%Debt / EBITDAFFO / debtbefore leases: 2.0x, 37.5%with leases: 2.8x, 25.1%gross debt: on the boundary
Paridhan moves from 2.0x debt to EBITDA and 37.5% FFO to debt, inside the illustrative A band, to 2.8x and 25.1%, inside BBB, once leases are treated as debt; on gross debt before leases it already sits on the A to BBB boundary.

Two cautions finish the answer. First, consistency: adding leases to debt without adding rent back to EBITDA gives 3.5x, a double count that overstates risk. Second, a grid is a starting point: agencies also weigh business risk, such as brand strength, store productivity and how quickly unprofitable stores can be closed, and can rate above or below where the ratios point. The grid here is illustrative; each agency publishes its own thresholds, which change, so confirm the current ones.

Where candidates lose it

Candidates compute leverage on reported debt, place the retailer comfortably in A, and stop. For retailers, airlines and anyone with large lease books, the adjusted figure is the one that decides the rating.

The other mistake is adjusting only half the ratio: adding leases to debt while leaving rent above EBITDA, which counts the same obligation twice.

What the interviewer asks next

  • How would you rate Paridhan if it could close a third of its stores with three months' notice?
  • Why might an agency not net all of the Rs 300 crore of cash?
  • What would you look at beyond the two ratios?

Asked at S&P Global, Debt Capital Markets, Chicago, 2022 (Wall Street Oasis): you will get a case study consisting of basic credit analysis in a made up scenario
Asked at Truist Securities, Leveraged Finance, Atlanta, 2024 (Wall Street Oasis): What credit metrics would you look at when analyzing a company like Nike

← Case 018Pitch a pair trade between two listed retailers: which do you buy, which do you short, and what would make you wrong?Case 020 →A home care company buys a personal care brand with cheap debt. The deal lifts EPS 6.6%. Does it create value?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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