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040

Case 040Working capital and cash flowCore

A woollens maker sells 70% of its year in four winter months but produces evenly. Find its peak working capital need and size a seasonal credit line.

1The situation

Ushnika Woollens has annual revenue of Rs 400 crore. 70% is sold from October to January, spread evenly over those four months, and the remaining 30% is spread evenly over the other eight. To keep its looms and workers busy, it produces evenly all year; cost of goods is 65% of revenue, all of it bought-in material and job-work paid for in 30 days.

Customers pay in 60 days. Inventory falls to a minimum of Rs 10 crore at the end of January. The year runs April to March.

2Your task

Build month-end working capital, find the peak and the low, and size a seasonal credit line.

Quick check

In which month is Ushnika's working capital need highest?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Working capital peaks at about Rs 176 crore at the end of November and falls to about Rs 42 crore at the end of March. Even production builds stock from April to September; then sales jump and 60-day credit turns the stock into receivables. Fund the Rs 42 crore that never goes away with long-term money, and the Rs 134 crore swing with a seasonal line drawn from April and repaid from collections by March.

Step 1Why does an even production plan create a cash problem?

Think of a mango seller who buys from the orchard every week but sells mostly in May. All year the stock piles up and has to be paid for; the cash only comes back in the season. Ushnika makes Rs 21.7 crore of goods every month but sells only Rs 9.75 crore worth, at cost, in each off-season month, so stock grows by about Rs 11.9 crore a month from April to September. Suppliers wait only 30 days, so almost all of that stock is funded by Ushnika.

Step 2How do you build month-end working capital?

Three lines, each from one rule. Inventory: last month plus production less the cost of what was sold, anchored at Rs 10 crore at the end of January. Receivables: 60 days means this month's and last month's sales are unpaid. Payables: 30 days of production, Rs 21.7 crore every month. Net working capital is inventory plus receivables less payables, and the seasonal peakThe highest point of a working capital cycle that rises and falls within the year, as opposed to the permanent level that never goes away. comes when stock is still high and receivables have already jumped.

Month endSalesInventoryReceivablesPayablesNet working capital
Apr15.045.730.021.754.1
May15.057.730.021.766.0
Jun15.069.630.021.777.9
Jul15.081.530.021.789.8
Aug15.093.430.021.7101.7
Sep15.0105.330.021.7113.7
Oct70.081.585.021.7144.8
Nov70.057.7140.021.7176.0
Dec70.033.8140.021.7152.2
Jan70.010.0140.021.7128.3
Feb15.021.985.021.785.2
Mar15.033.830.021.742.2
Rs crore. Inventory peaks at Rs 105.3 crore in September, receivables reach Rs 140 crore from November to January, and net working capital peaks at Rs 176.0 crore at the end of November before falling to Rs 42.2 crore in March.
Ushnika's working capital through the year, Rs crore at each month endselling season050100150200AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarpeak 176low 42net working capitalinventoryreceivablespayablesInventory is anchored at Rs 10 crore at the end of January, the seasonal low.
Ushnika's inventory builds from April to September and receivables jump in the selling season, so net working capital climbs from Rs 42 crore in March to a peak of Rs 176 crore at the end of November.
Step 3How big should the credit line be, and how is it repaid?

Split the need into two parts. About Rs 42 crore is needed even at the year's low, so it is permanent and belongs to long-term funding; the remaining Rs 134 crore comes and goes each year and is what a seasonal line is for. A bank would add headroom for a late season or slow payers, say 10 to 15%, taking the line towards Rs 150 crore. It is drawn as stock builds from April, peaks in November, and is repaid from December to March as January's and February's collections arrive.

Two checks keep the answer honest. Sizing to the average need of about Rs 103 crore would leave Ushnika short for the four months that matter most. And the whole plan relies on the season arriving: a warm winter leaves stock unsold, the line cannot be repaid in March, and seasonal debt quietly becomes permanent. A lender would ask for a clean-down period each year, when the line must be repaid in full, to test exactly that.

Where candidates lose it

The common mistake is taking the peak of inventory, September, as the peak need. Working capital peaks later, when stock has turned into receivables that customers have not yet paid.

The second is sizing the facility to the annual average. A seasonal business needs funding at its peak, not on average, and the gap shows up exactly when sales are highest.

What the interviewer asks next

  • If Ushnika produced in line with sales instead, how would the peak change, and what would it cost?
  • Customers in the season negotiate 90 days. Where does the peak go?
  • What covenant or clean-down clause would you put on the seasonal line?
← Case 039A dairy business is for sale at 10x the seller's adjusted EBITDA. Build the buyer's quality of earnings view of the add-backs.Case 041 →Anantya Credit gives you default counts for three loan vintages of different ages. Estimate the lifetime default rate and expected loss on the youngest vintage, and judge the provision held against it.

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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