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078

Case 078Credit analysis and lendingCore

Two floating-rate, interest-only property loans of similar size: an office tower and a shopping mall. Compute LTV, debt yield and DSCR, stress for a 150 basis point rate rise, and say which you would rather hold.

PIMCOMunich · 2024

1The situation

A credit fund can buy one of two invented property loans. Both are floating rate, currently 7.5%, interest only, and have three years to run.

Tulsivan Towers is an office building valued at Rs 1,000 crore with net operating income (NOI, rent less property costs) of Rs 60.5 crore; the loan is Rs 550 crore. Rangmahal Mall is a shopping centre also valued at Rs 1,000 crore with NOI of Rs 55 crore; the loan is Rs 650 crore. The fund's view is that rates could rise 150 basis points over the next year, and that buyers would then demand roughly a point more of yield on property.

2Your task

Compute LTV, debt yield and DSCR for both loans today and after the rate rise, and say which loan you would rather hold.

Quick check

Which ratio does not change at all when the interest rate rises?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Hold Tulsivan Towers. It has an LTV of 55%, a debt yield of 11% and a DSCR of 1.47x, which falls to 1.22x after the shock. Rangmahal starts at 65% LTV, an 8.5% debt yield and 1.13x cover, and falls to 0.94x: its income no longer pays the interest. The debt yield is the interest rate at which each loan stops covering itself, so it ranks them before any stress is run.

Step 1What does each of the three ratios measure?

Think of lending to a landlord who owns one flat. You care how much of the flat's price you have lent (LTV), how big the rent is against your loan (debt yield), and whether this month's rent covers this month's interest (DSCR). LTV depends on a valuation, DSCR depends on the interest rate, and only debt yieldNet operating income divided by the loan amount. It ignores both the property value and the interest rate. depends on nothing but rent and loan size. For Tulsivan: 550 over 1,000 is 55% LTV, 60.5 over 550 is 11.0% debt yield, and 60.5 over interest of 41.25 is 1.47x. For Rangmahal: 65%, 8.46% and 1.13x.

Same rate shock, two loans: one bends, one breaksTulsivan Towers, officeLoan Rs 550 cr on Rs 1,000 cr valueLTV55%Debt yield, NOI / loan11.00%1.0x line:NOI = interest1.47xDSCR at 7.5%1.22xDSCR at 9.0%Bends: still covers interestRangmahal Mall, retailLoan Rs 650 cr on Rs 1,000 cr valueLTV65%Debt yield, NOI / loan8.46%1.0x line:NOI = interest1.13xDSCR at 7.5%0.94xDSCR at 9.0%Breaks: interest exceeds NOI
After a 150 basis point rise, Tulsivan Towers' DSCR falls from 1.47x to 1.22x and still covers interest, while Rangmahal Mall's falls from 1.13x to 0.94x, below the 1.0x line where NOI no longer pays the interest.
Step 2Why does debt yield predict the result of the stress?

On an interest-only loan, DSCR is NOI over loan times rate, which is debt yield divided by the rate. So DSCR hits exactly 1.0x when the interest rate equals the debt yield. Tulsivan can absorb rates up to 11.0% before its NOI stops covering interest; Rangmahal only up to 8.46%. A 9% rate sits comfortably under the first and above the second. This is why property lenders watch debt yield: it gives the breaking rate in one division.

The relationship
DSCR=NOIL×r=DYrRangmahal at 9%:8.46%9.0%=0.94×\text{DSCR} = \frac{\text{NOI}}{L \times r} = \frac{\text{DY}}{r} \qquad \text{Rangmahal at } 9\%: \frac{8.46\%}{9.0\%} = 0.94\times
NOInet operating income, rent less property costs
Lloan amount
rinterest rate on the floating loan
DYdebt yield, NOI divided by L
What it says in wordsOn an interest-only loan, cover is simply the debt yield divided by the rate, so the loan breaks when the rate climbs to the debt yield.
Step 3What happens to LTV when rates rise?

Higher rates usually push up the yield buyers demand from property, its cap rateNet operating income divided by property value; the yield a buyer earns on the price before financing.. Today Tulsivan is valued at a 6.05% cap rate and Rangmahal at 5.5%. Add one point to each and the values fall to about Rs 858 crore and Rs 846 crore, taking LTV to 64% and 77%. Both loans lose cushion, but Rangmahal's cushion falls to about 23% while its income no longer covers interest: if the borrower cannot inject cash, the lender is looking at a default with a quarter of value as the margin.

MetricTulsivan todayTulsivan stressedRangmahal todayRangmahal stressed
Interest rate7.5%9.0%7.5%9.0%
Interest, Rs crore41.2549.5048.7558.50
DSCR1.47x1.22x1.13x0.94x
Debt yield11.00%11.00%8.46%8.46%
Value, cap rate +1 point1,0008581,000846
LTV55%64%65%77%
Under the stress Tulsivan Towers keeps DSCR above 1.2x and LTV near 64%, while Rangmahal Mall falls below 1.0x cover with LTV near 77%, so only the office loan survives without fresh equity from its owner.
Step 4What would make you change your mind?

The numbers favour the office loan, but the asset types carry different risks the ratios miss. An office building's income depends on a few large tenants, so the lease expiry schedule matters more than today's NOI. If Tulsivan's two biggest tenants leave in year two, its NOI could fall a third and the comfort disappears. A mall's income is spread across many shops but tied to footfall and anchor tenants. Before buying, ask for the lease expiry profile of both, any rate hedge the borrowers hold, and whether the loans carry a cash sweep if DSCR falls below a trigger.

Where candidates lose it

Candidates compare LTV alone, see 55% against 65% and stop. LTV relies on a valuation that will itself fall when rates rise, so it is the least reliable of the three at exactly the moment you need it.

The other loss is forgetting the loans are floating. Running DSCR at today's 7.5% and calling both loans fine misses the point of the question, which is what happens to a borrower whose income is fixed by leases while its interest bill is not.

What the interviewer asks next

  • Rangmahal's borrower buys an interest rate cap at 8%. What is its DSCR in the stress now?
  • What debt yield would you require on a new office loan if you expect rates to peak at 10%?
  • How would a cash sweep triggered at 1.2x DSCR protect the lender?
  • Which loan would you rather hold if office vacancy in the city is rising fast?

Asked at PIMCO, Real Estate, Munich, 2024 (Wall Street Oasis): how would you assess the attractiveness of real estate backed debt in different emea subregions?

← Case 077A textile mill can keep an old loom or replace it with a new one. Using the running costs, both salvage values and an 11% discount rate, should it replace?Case 079 →A consumer company with surplus cash earning 7% pre-tax can pay a special dividend or buy back shares at 25x earnings. What happens to EPS under each, and how does tax shape the choice?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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