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041

Case 041Accretion and dilutionCore

Two tile makers propose a merger of equals with a 55/45 ownership split. Run a contribution analysis and say whether the split is fair to the smaller company.

1The situation

Pelvora Tiles has revenue of Rs 1,200 crore, EBITDA of Rs 240 crore, net income of Rs 120 crore and a market value of Rs 2,400 crore. Kesaran Ceramics has revenue of Rs 800 crore, EBITDA of Rs 200 crore, net income of Rs 90 crore and a market value of Rs 1,600 crore.

The boards propose an all-share merger of equals in which Pelvora's shareholders would own 55% of the combined company and Kesaran's 45%. You advise Kesaran's board. Net debt figures have not yet been shared.

2Your task

What does each company contribute, and is 45% fair to Kesaran's shareholders?

Quick check

On which line does Kesaran contribute more than 45%?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

The 45% is fair to Kesaran, and generous on most measures. Kesaran brings 40% of revenue, 45.5% of EBITDA, 42.9% of net income and 40% of market value. Only EBITDA supports more than 45%. At 45% of a combined Rs 4,000 crore, Kesaran's holders get Rs 1,800 crore of value for Rs 1,600 crore, a 12.5% premium, before the net debt check.

Step 1What is a contribution analysis asking?

Two friends opening a shop together split it by what each brings: cash, customers, the lease. A contribution analysis lines up what each company brings on each measure, revenue, EBITDA, net income and market value, and compares those shares with the proposed ownership. No single line is the answer. Revenue ignores margins, EBITDA ignores debt and tax, net income is distorted by one-offs and financing, and market value is what investors already think. The range across them is where a fair split should sit.

Rs crorePelvoraKesaranPelvora shareKesaran share
Revenue1,20080060.0%40.0%
EBITDA24020054.5%45.5%
Net income1209057.1%42.9%
Market value2,4001,60060.0%40.0%
Proposed ownership55.0%45.0%
Kesaran contributes between 40.0% and 45.5% depending on the measure; the proposed 45% sits at the top of that range, above its share of revenue, net income and market value.
Who brings what, against the proposed 55/45 splitRevenuePelvora 60.0%Kesaran 40.0%EBITDAPelvora 54.5%Kesaran 45.5%Net incomePelvora 57.1%Kesaran 42.9%Market valuePelvora 60.0%Kesaran 40.0%Proposed split: 55% Pelvora / 45% KesaranWhere the dark Pelvora bar runs past the dashed line, Kesaran gets more than it brings.
Pelvora contributes 60% of revenue, 54.5% of EBITDA, 57.1% of net income and 60% of market value, yet would own only 55%, so Kesaran's 45% exceeds its contribution on every line except EBITDA.
Step 2Why is Kesaran's EBITDA share higher than its other shares?

Because it is the more profitable business. Kesaran earns a 25% EBITDA margin against Pelvora's 20%, so its share of EBITDA, 45.5%, is well above its 40% share of revenue; but it keeps less of that EBITDA as net income, so by the time you reach the bottom line its share falls to 42.9%. Something between EBITDA and net income, interest, depreciation or tax, costs Kesaran proportionally more. The likeliest candidate is debt, which is why the missing net debt figure matters: EBITDA contribution should be compared on enterprise value, and if Kesaran carries more debt, its equity contributionThe share of the combined equity value each side brings, after deducting each company own net debt from its enterprise value. is lower than its EBITDA share suggests.

Step 3What do you tell Kesaran's board?

Give the number, then the condition. At 45%, Kesaran's shareholders receive Rs 1,800 crore of the combined Rs 4,000 crore market value for a company worth Rs 1,600 crore today, a 12.5% premium, while Pelvora's holders give up 8.3%; that is a good outcome for Kesaran in a deal called a merger of equals. The board should accept the split in principle, subject to the net debt check: if Kesaran's net debt is much higher than Pelvora's, the EBITDA argument weakens further and 45% becomes even more favourable; if it is lower, Kesaran could argue for a point or two more. Advising Pelvora, you would argue the opposite: 55% undervalues a business that brings 57% to 60% on three of four lines.

Close on the limits. Contribution analysis ignores synergies, which belong to both sides, and growth, which may differ: if Kesaran grows faster, its future contribution is larger than its current one. It is a sense check on a negotiated split, not a valuation, and a fairness opinion would sit it alongside a DCF and trading comparables for each side.

Where candidates lose it

The common loss is reading only the EBITDA line, seeing Kesaran at 45.5%, and declaring 45% unfair to Kesaran. Every other line says the opposite, and an interviewer wants the full range before a verdict.

The second is forgetting net debt. EBITDA and revenue are enterprise level measures, ownership is equity, and without net debt you cannot turn an EBITDA share into a fair equity split.

What the interviewer asks next

  • Kesaran has net debt of Rs 400 crore and Pelvora none. What is each side's equity contribution on an 8x EBITDA basis?
  • How would expected synergies of Rs 40 crore a year change the negotiation?
  • Why do boards call a deal a merger of equals when the split is not 50/50?
← Case 040A chemicals company needs Rs 2,000 crore for an acquisition. Compare all debt, all equity and a 50/50 mix on EPS and on leverage against the rating threshold, and recommend one.Case 042 →Two cement credits: one has stronger metrics and a tighter spread, the other weaker metrics, more diversification and a wider spread. Which offers better value for the risk?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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