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008

Case 008Performance review and attributionHard

A hybrid fund benchmarked to a 65/35 equity-debt index runs only 45% net equity by hedging with arbitrage positions. It lagged by 3% in a year the equity market rose 25%. Is that underperformance or benchmark misfit, and what benchmark would be fair?

1The situation

Samyukta Mutual Fund's hybrid fund is benchmarked to an index holding 65% equity and 35% debt. On paper the fund holds 70% in shares, but 25% of the portfolio is in arbitrage positionsBuying a share in the cash market and selling the same quantity in the futures market. The two legs cancel the market move and the position earns roughly a money market return., so its net exposure to the equity market is only 45%. The other 30% is in debt.

Last year equity returned 25%, debt 7% and arbitrage positions 6.5%. The benchmark returned 18.7% and the fund returned 15.7%, a lag of 3 points. A distributor has asked your research team whether to drop the fund from its list.

2Your task

Is the 3 point lag the manager's fault, what benchmark would be fair, and what do you tell the distributor?

Quick check

Before any maths: what is the first thing to check about the 3 point lag?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

It is benchmark misfit, not underperformance. Holding 45% net equity instead of 65% explains about 3.7 points of lag in a year equity rose 25%. Against a fair benchmark matching its real exposure, about 15.0%, the fund's 15.7% is about 0.7 points ahead. The fair benchmark is a hybrid index with roughly 45% equity, which is how a dynamic asset allocation fund behaves.

Step 1Why can a benchmark make a good fund look bad?

Imagine a cautious driver judged against a racing driver's lap times. He will always look slow on a clear track and brilliant in the rain, and neither result says much about his driving. A benchmark is only a fair judge if it takes roughly the same risks as the fund; otherwise it measures the difference in risk, not the manager. Samyukta's fund is labelled against a 65/35 index but behaves like a fund with 45% equity. In a year the equity market rose 25%, the label alone guaranteed a lag.

How much equity the fund really held, against the benchmark it is judged byGross equity held70%70% on paper, 25% of it hedgedNet equity exposure45%earns 11.25 pts when equity rises 25%Benchmark equity65%earns 16.25 pts when equity rises 25%20 points less equity: about 3.7 pts of the gap
The fund holds 70% equity on paper but only 45% net of its arbitrage hedges, against 65% in the benchmark, so in a 25% equity rally the fund earned 11.25 points from equity while the benchmark earned 16.25.
Step 2How much of the lag does the exposure explain?

Build a benchmark that holds what the fund holds: 45% equity at 25%, 25% arbitrage at 6.5% and 30% debt at 7%. That fair benchmark returns 15.0%, so the exposure gap explains 3.7 points of lag, more than the whole 3 points. The fund's 15.7% is about 0.7 points ahead of what its own exposure would have earned passively, so the manager's stock and bond choices added value. One year is a small sample; the point is the method, not a verdict on skill.

The relationship
0.45(25)+0.25(6.5)+0.30(7)=14.97%18.7−15.0≈3.7 pts of misfit0.45(25) + 0.25(6.5) + 0.30(7) = 14.97\% \qquad 18.7 - 15.0 \approx 3.7 \text{ pts of misfit}
0.45net equity weight
0.25arbitrage weight, earning a money market return
0.30debt weight
18.7return of the 65/35 benchmark
What it says in wordsA benchmark built from the fund's real weights returns far less than the label benchmark, and that difference is the misfit.
Splitting the 3 point lag: benchmark misfit against manager skill, per cent18.7%65/35 benchmark-3.7Less equity held+0.7Manager's picks15.7%Fund returnfair benchmark 15.0%Most of the lag came from the benchmark, not the manager
Of the 3 point lag against the 65/35 benchmark, holding less equity cost 3.7 points and the manager's choices added back 0.7 points, so against a fair benchmark of 15.0% the fund was ahead.
Step 3Would the label flatter the fund in a bad year?

Run the same fund through a year when equity falls 20%. The 65/35 benchmark returns -10.55%, while the fair benchmark returns -5.28%. With the same manager skill, the fund returns about -4.6% and beats its label benchmark by 6.0 points, praise it has not earned any more than it earned this year's blame. A misfit benchmark cuts both ways, so distributors who drop the fund now would be the same ones adding it after the next fall, at the wrong moment each time.

Year type65/35 benchmarkFair benchmarkFundFund minus label
Equity +25%18.70%14.97%15.70%-3.00
Equity -20%-10.55%-5.28%-4.55%+6.00
With identical manager skill, the fund trails its 65/35 label by 3 points in a strong year and beats it by 6.0 points in a falling year, while it beats the fair benchmark by 0.7 points in both.
Step 4What benchmark is fair, and what do you tell the distributor?

Why would a fund hold 70% gross equity but hedge a third of it? Often to stay inside a category's equity floor, which also affects how the fund is taxed, while running a cautious portfolio. Check the scheme information document and the current category and tax rules rather than assuming them. The fair yardstick is a hybrid index with roughly 45% to 50% equity, which is how dynamic asset allocation funds are usually benchmarked. Tell the distributor the fund is doing what its holdings imply and doing it slightly better than passive; the problem is that it is shelved next to aggressive hybrids. Keep it, but present it to clients as a moderate-risk fund, and ask the AMC whether the stated benchmark should change.

Where candidates lose it

The usual loss is taking the stated benchmark at face value and blaming the manager for the 3 points. Interviewers plant the arbitrage detail to see whether you convert gross equity into net exposure before judging anyone.

The second is calling the fund a winner and stopping. The fair answer also says the mislabelled benchmark is a problem for investors, who chose the fund expecting 65% equity behaviour.

What the interviewer asks next

  • The fund raises net equity to 60% after a market fall. How does that change your attribution next year?
  • How would you build the fair benchmark if the fund's net equity moved between 30% and 80% during the year?
  • Why might an AMC prefer to keep the 65/35 benchmark?
← Case 007Value a listed AMC with Rs 1.2 lakh crore of AUM, a 0.52% revenue yield falling 3 basis points a year, 12% AUM growth and costs growing 8%. Build three years of profit, state every assumption, and show which one drives the P/E you would pay.Case 009 →A parent needs Rs 10 lakh a year for four years of college fees starting next year. Compare a ladder of four target maturity funds maturing in years 1 to 4 with a single short duration fund, on rate risk and certainty.

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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