Case 008Performance review and attributionHard
A hybrid fund benchmarked to a 65/35 equity-debt index runs only 45% net equity by hedging with arbitrage positions. It lagged by 3% in a year the equity market rose 25%. Is that underperformance or benchmark misfit, and what benchmark would be fair?
1The situation
Samyukta Mutual Fund's hybrid fund is benchmarked to an index holding 65% equity and 35% debt. On paper the fund holds 70% in shares, but 25% of the portfolio is in arbitrage positionsBuying a share in the cash market and selling the same quantity in the futures market. The two legs cancel the market move and the position earns roughly a money market return., so its net exposure to the equity market is only 45%. The other 30% is in debt.
Last year equity returned 25%, debt 7% and arbitrage positions 6.5%. The benchmark returned 18.7% and the fund returned 15.7%, a lag of 3 points. A distributor has asked your research team whether to drop the fund from its list.
2Your task
Is the 3 point lag the manager's fault, what benchmark would be fair, and what do you tell the distributor?
Quick check
Before any maths: what is the first thing to check about the 3 point lag?
Worked solution
Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.
30-second answerThe answer to give first
It is benchmark misfit, not underperformance. Holding 45% net equity instead of 65% explains about 3.7 points of lag in a year equity rose 25%. Against a fair benchmark matching its real exposure, about 15.0%, the fund's 15.7% is about 0.7 points ahead. The fair benchmark is a hybrid index with roughly 45% equity, which is how a dynamic asset allocation fund behaves.
Step 1Why can a benchmark make a good fund look bad?
Imagine a cautious driver judged against a racing driver's lap times. He will always look slow on a clear track and brilliant in the rain, and neither result says much about his driving. A benchmark is only a fair judge if it takes roughly the same risks as the fund; otherwise it measures the difference in risk, not the manager. Samyukta's fund is labelled against a 65/35 index but behaves like a fund with 45% equity. In a year the equity market rose 25%, the label alone guaranteed a lag.
Step 2How much of the lag does the exposure explain?
Build a benchmark that holds what the fund holds: 45% equity at 25%, 25% arbitrage at 6.5% and 30% debt at 7%. That fair benchmark returns 15.0%, so the exposure gap explains 3.7 points of lag, more than the whole 3 points. The fund's 15.7% is about 0.7 points ahead of what its own exposure would have earned passively, so the manager's stock and bond choices added value. One year is a small sample; the point is the method, not a verdict on skill.
| 0.45 | net equity weight |
| 0.25 | arbitrage weight, earning a money market return |
| 0.30 | debt weight |
| 18.7 | return of the 65/35 benchmark |
Step 3Would the label flatter the fund in a bad year?
Run the same fund through a year when equity falls 20%. The 65/35 benchmark returns -10.55%, while the fair benchmark returns -5.28%. With the same manager skill, the fund returns about -4.6% and beats its label benchmark by 6.0 points, praise it has not earned any more than it earned this year's blame. A misfit benchmark cuts both ways, so distributors who drop the fund now would be the same ones adding it after the next fall, at the wrong moment each time.
| Year type | 65/35 benchmark | Fair benchmark | Fund | Fund minus label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity +25% | 18.70% | 14.97% | 15.70% | -3.00 |
| Equity -20% | -10.55% | -5.28% | -4.55% | +6.00 |
Step 4What benchmark is fair, and what do you tell the distributor?
Why would a fund hold 70% gross equity but hedge a third of it? Often to stay inside a category's equity floor, which also affects how the fund is taxed, while running a cautious portfolio. Check the scheme information document and the current category and tax rules rather than assuming them. The fair yardstick is a hybrid index with roughly 45% to 50% equity, which is how dynamic asset allocation funds are usually benchmarked. Tell the distributor the fund is doing what its holdings imply and doing it slightly better than passive; the problem is that it is shelved next to aggressive hybrids. Keep it, but present it to clients as a moderate-risk fund, and ask the AMC whether the stated benchmark should change.
Where candidates lose it
The usual loss is taking the stated benchmark at face value and blaming the manager for the 3 points. Interviewers plant the arbitrage detail to see whether you convert gross equity into net exposure before judging anyone.
The second is calling the fund a winner and stopping. The fair answer also says the mislabelled benchmark is a problem for investors, who chose the fund expecting 65% equity behaviour.
What the interviewer asks next
- The fund raises net equity to 60% after a market fall. How does that change your attribution next year?
- How would you build the fair benchmark if the fund's net equity moved between 30% and 80% during the year?
- Why might an AMC prefer to keep the 65/35 benchmark?
Company names and figures are illustrative.
