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010

Case 010Liquidity, redemptions and stressCore

A Rs 9,000 crore small cap fund receives Rs 1,800 crore in a month. Its 60 stocks have a median daily turnover of Rs 18 crore and it can buy 15% of volume without moving prices. How long does deployment take, and should it limit lump-sum inflows?

1The situation

Dharanika Mutual Fund's small cap fund manages Rs 9,000 crore across 60 stocks, roughly Rs 150 crore in each. After a strong year it received Rs 1,800 crore of new money in a month, a fifth of its size. The manager wants to keep the portfolio as it is and add to every holding in proportion.

The median holding trades Rs 18 crore a day. The dealing desk's rule is to buy no more than 15% of a stock's daily turnover, beyond which its own buying starts pushing the price up. The 60 stocks are not alike: the most liquid 20 trade about Rs 40 crore a day, the middle 20 about Rs 18 crore and the least liquid 20 about Rs 6 crore.

2Your task

How long does it take to invest the inflow without moving prices, and should the fund restrict lump-sum investments?

Quick check

The median-stock maths says about 11 trading days. How long does the least liquid third of the portfolio take?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

The quick answer is about 11 trading days, but the least liquid third of the portfolio takes about 33. By day 11 only about Rs 1,400 crore is invested. Money arriving faster than its stocks can absorb either sits in cash or pushes up the prices the fund pays. Limiting lump-sum inflows while keeping monthly investment plans open protects existing investors and is a reasonable step.

Step 1What does the median-stock answer say?

Start with the version most candidates give. At 15% of Rs 18 crore, the fund can buy Rs 2.7 crore a day of a median stock, and across 60 stocks that is Rs 162 crore a day. Rs 1,800 crore divided by Rs 162 crore a day is about 11 trading days, and that is the floor, not the answer. It assumes every stock is as liquid as the median one. Small cap portfolios are rarely like that; liquidity falls off sharply in the smallest names.

Step 2Why does the tail of the portfolio set the timetable?

Think of filling sixty glasses from taps of different speeds. The fast taps finish early, but you are not done until the slowest glass is full. Adding Rs 30 crore to each stock takes about 5 days in the liquid third, 11 days in the middle third and 33 days in the least liquid third. On day 11, when the median answer says the job is done, about Rs 400 crore is still waiting. The manager then has three bad choices: hold cash and lag in a rising market, buy faster and pay up, or put the money into the liquid stocks and let the portfolio drift away from its design.

Rs 1,800 crore going in at 15% of each stock's daily volume, Rs crore deployed5001,0001,500Inflow Rs 1,800 croreMedian-stock answer: 11 daysDay 11: only Rs 1,400 crore inFully invested: day 330102030Trading days
Buying 15% of each stock's daily turnover, Dharanika invests only about Rs 1,400 crore of its Rs 1,800 crore inflow by day 11, when the median-stock estimate says it should be finished, and is fully invested only by about day 33.
Group of 20 stocksDaily turnover, Rs croreCan buy a day, Rs croreDays to add Rs 30 crore
20 most liquid406.05.0
20 middle182.711.1
20 least liquid60.933.3
Each stock needs Rs 30 crore of the inflow; at 15% of daily turnover the liquid third absorbs it in about 5 days and the least liquid third needs about 33.
Step 3Who pays if the fund buys faster anyway?

The investors already in the fund. When a fund buys more than the market can absorb, it raises the price of shares it already owns and is still buying, so new money is invested at inflated prices and the gain on paper reverses once the buying stops. The inflow also adds about 20% to every holding at once, and other traders who notice persistent buying in thin stocks can step in ahead of it. This is why the size of a small cap fund matters more than the size of a large cap fund: the same rupee inflow is a much bigger share of what its stocks trade.

Step 4Should the fund limit lump sums?

Yes: a fund whose stocks need more than a month to absorb a month's inflow is taking money faster than it can invest it well. The usual tool is a cap on lump-sum purchases while monthly investment plans continue, because steady small flows are easy to deploy and abrupt large ones are not. A fund can also widen its universe or accept some cash for longer, and both have costs. Check the scheme documents and current regulatory guidance on how a fund may restrict subscriptions. The limit of this analysis is that 15% of volume is a desk rule of thumb; in a falling market turnover dries up and the same portfolio becomes harder to sell, which is the stress case the risk team should run next.

Where candidates lose it

The common loss is answering with the median stock alone, 11 days, and stopping. The interviewer has built in a liquidity spread to see whether you look past the average to the stocks that take longest.

The second is treating a big inflow as simply good news. For a small cap fund it is a cost borne by existing investors unless it can be invested without moving prices.

What the interviewer asks next

  • The same fund faces Rs 1,800 crore of redemptions instead. How long does selling take, and why might it be worse?
  • How would you set a lump-sum cap: a rupee amount per investor or a total per day?
  • What would you disclose to investors when the cap is introduced?
← Case 009A parent needs Rs 10 lakh a year for four years of college fees starting next year. Compare a ladder of four target maturity funds maturing in years 1 to 4 with a single short duration fund, on rate risk and certainty.Case 011 →A mid-sized AMC must choose its next launch: a defence theme NFO that distributors are asking for, or a multi-asset fund. It already runs two thematic funds and has no multi-asset fund. Which launch, and how do you justify it to the board?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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