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014

Case 014Fund selection and due diligenceHard

A large cap fund beat its peers by 2.4% a year for three years, but its quarterly holdings show 26% to 31% in stocks ranked outside the top 100 by market value. Is the outperformance skill, and what do you do about a fund whose label no longer describes it?

1The situation

Meghavan Asset Management's large cap fund has beaten the average large cap fund by 2.4 percentage points a year over three years, and sales teams are promoting it. Your fund research team pulls its twelve quarterly portfolios and finds that stocks ranked outside the top 100 companies by market value made up between 26% and 31% of the fund every quarter, an average of 28.5%. The average peer held about 9% outside the top 100.

Over the same three years, mid and small cap stocks beat large caps by about 10 percentage points a year. Large cap funds are required by the category rules to hold a minimum share in the top 100 companies, 80% under the rules as we understand them; confirm the current figure and the rebalancing windows.

2Your task

How much of the 2.4 points is skill, and what should a fund research team or distributor do about it?

Quick check

Holding about 19.5 points more than peers in stocks that beat large caps by 10 points a year explains how much of the 2.4 point lead?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Most of the outperformance is not skill but a different fund: about 2.0 of the 2.4 points came from holding mid and small caps in years they beat large caps. The remaining 0.45 points is too small to tell apart from luck over three years. Investors bought a large cap fund and got a large and mid cap fund. Move it off any large cap recommendation, raise the breach with the AMC, and judge it against the right benchmark.

Step 1What does the holdings data actually show?

Suppose a vegetarian restaurant wins a taste award, and you then discover a third of its dishes contained meat. The food may still be good, but the award says nothing about vegetarian cooking. A fund's return only tells you about the manager's skill within its category if the fund actually stayed in that category. Meghavan held 28.5% outside the top 100 on average, every quarter above the 20% the rules leave for such stocks. This is style driftWhen a fund’s holdings move away from the style or market segment its category and name describe, so it no longer behaves like the fund investors chose., and it ran for three years.

Twelve quarters of holdings: how much sat outside the top 100 companies26%Q127%Q229%Q331%Q430%Q528%Q627%Q729%Q831%Q930%Q1028%Q1126%Q12category minimum: 80% in the top 100, so red above the line is a breach0%50%100%outside top 100top 100 companiesAverage outside the top 100: 28.5%
In every one of twelve quarters Meghavan's large cap fund held between 26% and 31% outside the top 100 companies, an average of 28.5%, above the share its category leaves for such stocks.
Step 2How much of the 2.4 points does the tilt explain?

Compare it with the peers, since that is the claim being made. The fund held about 19.5 points more than peers outside the top 100. Those stocks beat large caps by about 10 points a year. 19.5% of the portfolio earning 10 points more adds about 1.95 points a year, so the tilt alone explains about four fifths of the lead. This is a simple attribution; a fuller one would compare each segment's holdings with its own index. The direction would not change.

The relationship
(28.5%−9%)×10 pts≈1.95 pts2.4−1.95=0.45 pts left(28.5\% - 9\%) \times 10 \text{ pts} \approx 1.95 \text{ pts} \qquad 2.4 - 1.95 = 0.45 \text{ pts left}
28.5%fund's average weight outside the top 100
9%peers' average weight outside the top 100
10 ptsyearly return of mid and small caps over large caps
What it says in wordsThe extra weight in smaller stocks times how much they beat large caps gives the part of the lead that came from the tilt.
Where the 2.4 points a year over peers came from2.4Total lead over peers1.95Owning mid and small caps0.45Left for stock pickingt-stat about 0.2:noise, not proofPercentage points a year over three years
Of the fund's 2.4 point yearly lead over peers, about 1.95 points came from owning more mid and small caps in years they beat large caps, leaving about 0.45 points that three years of data cannot distinguish from luck.
Step 3Is the leftover 0.45 points skill?

Not provably. Suppose the fund's returns differ from peers' by about 4 points a year in a typical year. Over three years the uncertainty around its average lead is about 4 divided by the square root of 3, roughly 2.3 points. A 0.45 point residual against 2.3 points of noise is a t-statistic of about 0.2, nowhere near evidence of skill. The tilt also cuts the other way. In a year when mid and small caps lag large caps by 15 points, the same positioning would cost about 2.9 points, and investors who bought it as their large cap core would get a fall they did not sign up for.

Step 4What do you do about it?

Three steps. First, check the innocent explanation: stocks move in and out of the top 100 when the official ranking list is updated, and funds get a window to rebalance. A breach that persists across twelve quarters is not that. Second, take the fund off any large cap recommendation and judge it against a large and mid cap benchmark, which describes what investors actually own. Third, raise it with the AMC in writing and, if you are a distributor, tell clients who hold it as their large cap fund that it carries more mid cap risk than its label suggests. Reporting suspected category breaches to the regulator is the AMC's and trustees' job in the first instance, but a research house that sees a persistent one should not stay silent.

Where candidates lose it

The common loss is praising the 2.4 points and the manager's stock picking without opening the holdings. The interviewer has given you the quarterly data precisely to see whether you decompose the return before crediting skill.

The second is calling it fraud on sight. Index reclassification and rebalancing windows exist, and the answer should check them before accusing anyone.

What the interviewer asks next

  • The fund's holdings outside the top 100 were all ranked 101 to 120. Does that change your view?
  • How would you build a benchmark that fairly judges this fund's last three years?
  • Mid caps fall 25% next year. What do you expect from this fund against its peers, and what do you tell clients now?
← Case 013A school chain is coming to IPO at a price band implying 62 times trailing earnings. 80% of the issue is an offer for sale by a private equity investor, and enrolments grew 9% last year. Should an equity fund apply, and what would it need to believe?Case 015 →A dealer keyed an order for Rs 48 crore instead of Rs 4.8 crore in a mid cap stock that trades Rs 30 crore a day, and the price rose 6% during execution. What does unwinding cost, who bears it, and which controls failed?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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