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044

Case 044Performance review and attributionWarm up

A fund research house must rate three funds on people, process, parent, performance and price: one cheap with an average record, one with the best 5-year return and a new manager, one with a long-serving manager and high fees. Score them with stated weights and explain the ranking.

1The situation

Kasauti Research publishes forward-looking ratings on Indian equity funds. An analyst must rate three large cap funds using the five-pillar method common among fund research houses: people, process, parent (the AMC's culture and stewardship), performance and price.

Fund P charges 0.9% a year, has a stable but ordinary team and a ten-year record about half a point a year behind its benchmark after fees. Fund Q has the best five-year return in the category, 3.2 points a year ahead of its benchmark, but the manager who earned it left eight months ago and his replacement has run only a mid cap fund. Fund R has had the same manager for fourteen years, a team of five analysts and a documented process; it is 1.1 points a year ahead of its benchmark after fees of 2.1%.

2Your task

Score the three funds with stated weights, rank them, and explain why the ranking is not the same as the performance table.

Quick check

Which fund should a forward-looking rating mark down most on people?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Fund R ranks first (3.75 out of 5), Fund P second (3.50) and Fund Q last (3.05), despite Q's best five-year return. With people, process and price weighted at 25% each, R's long-serving manager and process outweigh its fees, P's low cost lifts an ordinary team, and Q's record belongs to a manager who left. Weight past performance at 60% and Q would come first, which is why the weights must be stated.

Step 1Why does a forward-looking rating not simply follow returns?

When a restaurant's famous chef leaves, last year's reviews tell you about a kitchen that no longer exists. A forward-looking rating asks how likely a fund is to do well from here, so it weighs who runs it and what it costs more heavily than what it did in the past. Past performance enters, but as evidence that the people and process work, not as the score itself. Price earns a heavy weight because it is the one thing known in advance: every year, the fee is subtracted for certain.

Set the weights before scoring, and say them out loud: people 25%, process 25%, parent 10%, performance 15% and price 25%. Then score each pillar 1 to 5 from the facts. Fund Q gets 2 on people, because its record belongs to someone else, but 5 on performance; Fund R gets 5 on people and 2 on price; Fund P gets 5 on price and 3 on everything else.

A forward-looking rating weighs people and price, not just past returnFund (score 1 to 5)Peopleweight 25%Processweight 25%Parentweight 10%Performanceweight 15%Priceweight 25%WeightedFund P333353.50Fund Q233533.05Fund R544423.75P: cheapest, average record, solid but ordinary teamQ: best 5-year return, but the manager who earned it left 8 months agoR: same manager 14 years, five analysts, but fees of 2.1% a yearWeight past performance at 60% instead and the order flips: Q 4.10, R 3.90, P 3.20
With people, process and price at 25% each, Fund R scores 3.75, Fund P 3.50 and Fund Q 3.05, so the fund with the best past return ranks last, while weighting past performance at 60% would put Q first.
Step 2How do you defend each fund's place?

Fund R first: fourteen years of the same manager and a documented process make it likely that the 1.1 points of past outperformance after fees came from skill that is still in the building. Its 2.1% fee is the real drag; it needs to beat a cheaper rival by more than a point a year before fees just to keep pace. Fund P second: nothing distinctive, but at 0.9% an investor keeps more of whatever the market gives. Fund Q last for now: the five-year record cannot be credited to the new manager, so the rating should be held at a provisional level and revisited after he has a record of at least two to three years.

Step 3What are the limits of a scored rating?

The weights decide a lot. Weighted 60% on performance and 10% on everything else, the order flips to Q 4.10, R 3.90, P 3.20. That does not make one set of weights right; it shows the rating is a judgement, and the published method should say which judgement it makes. The scores for people and process are themselves opinions formed in meetings, so record the evidence behind each one, and check the ratings later against what happened, which is the only test of whether the method works.

Where candidates lose it

The common loss is ranking by the five-year return table and calling it a rating. Interviewers in fund research want to hear that a record follows the manager, not the fund name, and that fees are the one certain part of future return.

The second miss is scoring without stating the weights first. A ranking whose weights are chosen after seeing the scores can justify any answer.

What the interviewer asks next

  • Fund R cuts its fee to 1.4%. How does its score change?
  • How long a record would you want from Q's new manager before restoring a full rating, and why?
  • What evidence would you collect to score parent fairly?
← Case 043A client asks why a credit risk fund yields 9.1% while a corporate bond fund from the same AMC yields 7.6%. Break the 150 basis point gap into its parts and say what it means for the client.Case 045 →A dynamic bond fund expects rate cuts and must choose between a 10-year callable bond with modified duration 7.1 and effective duration 4.2, and a 7-year bullet with duration 5.6, at similar yields. Which gains more from a 100 basis point fall, and what allocation would you run today?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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