Case 060Performance review and attributionCore
From a data pack on Himalika Mutual Fund's flexi cap fund: it lagged its benchmark by 1.6% last year; sector allocation added 0.8%, stock selection cost 2.1% and cash drag 0.3%. Write the three-minute review for the investment committee and say what you would ask the manager.
1The situation
You work in the fund research team of a distributor that has Himalika Mutual Fund's flexi cap fund on its recommended list. The fund manages about Rs 6,000 crore. Last year the benchmark returned 14.0% and the fund 12.4%, a lag of 1.6 points.
The data pack carries a Brinson attributionA method that splits a fund’s return gap into the effect of choosing different sector weights (allocation) and the effect of choosing different stocks within each sector (selection). for the year: sector allocation added 0.8 points, stock selection cost 2.1 points and cash drag cost 0.3 points. Within selection, financials cost 1.4, consumer 0.6 and others 0.4, while industrials added 0.3. The fund held about 4% in cash on average. Its tracking error is about 4%. The committee meets tomorrow and gives you three minutes.
2Your task
What do you say in the three minutes, what would you ask the manager, and what would you recommend the committee does with the fund?
Quick check
Where should the three-minute review spend most of its time?
Worked solution
Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.
30-second answerThe answer to give first
The fund lagged by 1.6 points because stock selection cost 2.1; good sector calls and a little cash drag only partly offset it. Most of the selection loss sits in financials, 1.4 points. One year is within the fund's normal range, at a tracking error of about 4%, so the committee should not act yet. Ask the manager what went wrong in financials, whether the thesis still holds, and why cash averaged 4%, then review again in two quarters.
Step 1How do you structure three minutes on an attribution?
A doctor reading a blood report does not read every line aloud; they go straight to the result outside the normal range. An attribution review should do the same: state the result, go to the largest negative line, explain it, and say what you want to know. The arithmetic first: 14.0% plus 0.8 minus 2.1 minus 0.3 gives 12.4%, a 1.6 point lag, about Rs 96 crore of return on a Rs 6,000 crore fund.
Step 2What does each line actually say about the manager?
Allocation of +0.8 means the manager's sector bets were right: overweighting the sectors that did well. Selection of -2.1 means the stocks chosen inside sectors did worse than the sectors themselves. For a flexi cap manager, selection is the core skill being paid for, so a selection loss larger than the whole lag is the headline. The breakdown narrows it further: financials cost 1.4 of the 2.1 points, two thirds of the loss in one sector.
| Stock selection by sector | Effect, points | What to ask |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | -1.4 | Which names, and is it one stock or the whole book? |
| Consumer | -0.6 | Was the miss in staples or discretionary? |
| Industrials | +0.3 | What worked, and is it repeatable? |
| Others | -0.4 | Any single large loss hidden here? |
| Total selection | -2.1 |
Cash of about 4% in a year when the market rose 14% would cost 4% of 14%, about 0.56 points, if the cash earned nothing; earning about 6.5% on it brings the cost to 4% of 7.5, which is 0.30 points, the figure reported. So the cash drag is a choice the manager made, not an accident, and it deserves one question. Was the cash a market call, or did inflows arrive faster than the manager could invest them?
Step 3Should the committee act on one bad year?
Not on this evidence alone. With a tracking error of about 4%, a lag of 1.6 points is about 0.4 of a normal year's deviation: unwelcome, well within the range of a fund that is genuinely active. Acting on one year of attribution punishes managers for the variation that comes with being different from the index. What would change the view: the same selection losses for a second year, a change in the manager's stated process, or evidence that the financials loss came from one large position outside the fund's usual limits.
The three questions for the manager, in order. Which stocks in financials cost 1.4 points, and has the thesis behind them changed or only the price? Was the 4% cash a deliberate call, and what is the rule for deploying it? And is the allocation gain repeatable, or did one sector call carry the year? Close the review with a recommendation the committee can act on: keep the fund on the list, ask for the manager's written answers, and review in two quarters.
Where candidates lose it
Candidates read the attribution line by line in the order the data pack gives it and run out of time before reaching the point. The committee wants the largest negative line first and the judgement last.
The other miss is recommending removal after one year. A 1.6 point lag inside a 4% tracking error is normal variation for an active fund, and a good review says what further evidence would justify acting.
What the interviewer asks next
- The attribution shows an interaction effect of -0.4 points. What is it, and how would you explain it?
- How would you tell whether the financials loss was bad luck or a bad process?
- The same lag appears for a second year. What do you recommend now?
Company names and figures are illustrative.
