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064

Case 064Compliance, risk limits and conductHard

The equity savings fund of Sunandini Mutual Fund hedges part of its equity with index futures. A missed rollover left 8% of NAV unhedged on a day the market fell 4%. What did the lapse cost, why did the controls fail, and what should change?

SCSchrodersNew York · 2021

1The situation

Sunandini Mutual Fund runs an equity savings fund of Rs 3,000 crore. It holds 70% of NAV in shares, but sells index and stock futures against 40% of NAV, so its net equity exposure is 30%. The scheme document states that net equity will stay within a stated range whose upper end, for this case, is 35%.

Futures covering 8% of NAV expired at 3.30 pm on a Thursday. The dealer who normally rolls them into the next month's contract was on leave, and nobody else rolled them. On Friday the market fell 4%. The end-of-day risk report flagged net equity at 38%, and the hedge was restored at Monday's open. The chief risk officer asks you for the cost, the cause and the fix.

2Your task

What did the lapse cost the fund, why did three layers of control miss it, and what should the AMC change, including who bears the loss?

Quick check

How much did the missed roll cost the fund on Friday, as a share of NAV?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

The lapse cost 0.32% of NAV, about Rs 9.6 crore: 8% of NAV left unhedged through a 4% fall. Three controls failed together: the roll depended on one person, the order system checked gross rather than net equity, and the net exposure report ran after the market closed. The fix is to roll before expiry with a second person, put a live net equity limit in the order system, and have the AMC make investors whole for a loss caused by its own breach.

Step 1How do you measure the cost of the lapse?

Think of a monthly train pass that expires on Thursday. If you forget to renew it and ride on Friday, the fine is for Friday only; the trips you had paid for were never the problem. The fund was meant to carry 30% net equity, so its loss on that 30% was the planned risk; the error is only the extra 8% left exposed. 8% of NAV times a 4% fall is 0.32% of NAV. On Rs 3,000 crore that is Rs 9.6 crore, and an investor with Rs 10 lakh lost Rs 3,200 they should not have.

Put it beside the planned loss. With net equity at 30%, a 4% fall should have cost 1.20% of NAV; with 38%, it cost 1.52%. The fund lost about a quarter more than its design allowed on a single day. And the cost would have been the same size if the market had risen 4%: an unintended gain is still a failure, because the fund took a risk its investors had not agreed to. A strong answer says this before anyone asks.

A hedge has dates: the four days in which the gap opened and closedMon to WedNo expiry alert;roll left for ThursdayThu 3.30 pm8% of NAV of futuresexpire, not replacedFridayMarket falls 4%:loss 0.32% of NAVFri eveningRisk report flagsnet equity 38% vs 35%Mon openHedge restored8% of NAV unhedged: an open position nobody chose8% x 4% = 0.32% of a Rs 3,000 crore NAV: Rs 9.6 crore
Futures covering 8% of NAV expired on Thursday and were not rolled, so when the market fell 4% on Friday the fund lost 0.32% of NAV, Rs 9.6 crore, before the risk report flagged the breach that evening and the hedge was restored on Monday.
Step 2Why did three separate controls all miss it?

Each control had a hole, and on this day the holes lined up, the pattern risk teams call the Swiss cheese modelA way of describing failures in which several imperfect controls each have gaps, and an accident happens only when the gaps line up.. The expiry calendar lived with one dealer and had no backup while he was on leave. The order management system checked the fund's gross equity against its limit, and gross equity did not change when futures expired. The one control that measured the right thing, net exposure, ran at the end of the day, which is after the loss rather than before it.

Three controls, three holes, lined up on the same day1. Expiry calendarKept by one dealer;no backup while on leave2. Order system limitChecked gross equity,which did not change3. Risk reportNet exposure checkedat end of day, too latemissed rollFix: roll two days before expiry, automated alerts with a second person,and a live net-equity limit in the order system that blocks or warns
The missed roll passed through three controls because each had a gap: the expiry calendar depended on one absent dealer, the order system watched gross rather than net equity, and the net exposure report ran only after the market closed.
Step 3What should change, and who pays for the loss?

The fixes follow the holes. Roll futures two or three days before expiry as a standing rule, so a missed roll is caught while the old contract is still alive. Send automated expiry alerts to the dealer, a named backup and the risk team. Put a live net equity check in the order system that warns, or blocks trades, when net exposure approaches the scheme's limit. Reconcile hedges against positions at expiry on expiry day, not the next evening. And add a desk procedure for leave, so no process depends on one person.

On the loss: the net equity went outside the range stated in the scheme document because of the AMC's own operational failure, not a market judgement. Under SEBI's framework and most AMCs' error policies, the AMC is expected to make good investors' losses from such a breach, report it to the trustees and record it; confirm the current requirements. The investors did not choose the extra risk, so they should not bear its cost. The incident also belongs in the board's risk report, with the fix and a date by which it will be tested.

HoleFixOwner
Roll left to expiry day, one dealerRoll two to three days early; named backupDealing desk head
Order system checks gross equity onlyLive net equity limit with warning and blockRisk and technology
Net exposure checked after the closeExpiry-day hedge reconciliation before 3.30 pmRisk team
Loss falls on investorsAMC compensates; trustees informedCompliance and CEO
Each of the three control gaps that let the missed roll through has a specific fix and an owner, and the loss itself is borne by the AMC rather than the investors because it came from the AMC's own breach of the scheme's stated range.

Where candidates lose it

Candidates apply the 4% fall to the whole portfolio, or to all of the fund's net equity, and report a loss of several per cent. The planned exposure was always going to move with the market; the error is only the unhedged 8% slice, 0.32% of NAV.

The other miss is blaming the dealer. A process that fails when one person takes leave is a design failure, and the interviewer wants the controls fixed, not a name.

What the interviewer asks next

  • Had the market risen 4% that Friday, would you still report the incident? What would you tell the trustees?
  • How would you design the net equity limit so that it does not block legitimate trades near expiry?
  • What other dated processes in a fund carry the same risk as a futures roll?

Asked at Schroders, Risk, New York, 2021 (Wall Street Oasis): Case study - reading about a failure to hedge risk and analyze

← Case 063In two lines and two minutes: Garudastra Aero makes aircraft components, has an order backlog of Rs 6,000 crore against Rs 1,500 crore of revenue, a 21% EBITDA margin and trades at 55 times earnings. Give the thesis and the one risk that breaks it.Case 065 →Samudrika Logistics has EBITDA of Rs 400 crore, net debt of Rs 1,600 crore (4.0x), interest of Rs 170 crore and trades at 9x EV/EBITDA. A hybrid fund can buy its 3-year bond at 9.6% or its equity. If EBITDA falls 20%, equity loses about 36% while the bond stays covered. Which instrument, and what would flip your answer?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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