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006

Case 006Performance evaluation and manager selectionWarm up

A portfolio manager runs ten accounts in one strategy and advertises the best three, which averaged 24%. All ten averaged 13% against a 14% benchmark. What should a fair composite show, and why?

1The situation

Nakshatra PMS runs one mid cap strategy across ten client accounts. Last year its brochure showed the three best accounts, which returned 26%, 24% and 22%, an average of 24%. The other seven returned between 15% and 3%. All ten together averaged 13%, and the strategy's benchmark returned 14%.

The accounts differ in size. The three advertised accounts hold Rs 7 crore between them out of Rs 40 crore in the strategy; the largest account, Rs 8 crore, returned 12%.

2Your task

What return should a fair composite report, how should it be built, and what else should it disclose?

Quick check

Which figure should Nakshatra's composite report for the year?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

A fair composite shows about 12.0%, every account weighted by its assets, 2.0 points behind the 14% benchmark. The advertised 24% is three hand-picked accounts, and even the 13% simple average overstates the result, because the best accounts were among the smallest. The composite should also disclose the number of accounts and the spread of returns, 3% to 26%, which says the accounts were not really run alike.

Step 1Why is the best-three figure not performance?

Because the choice of which accounts to show was made after the results were known. Any manager with ten accounts has a best three; showing them measures luck in the spread, not skill in the strategy. A coaching class that advertises only its three toppers says nothing about what an average student gains. Performance is what the strategy did with all the money it ran, including the accounts that did badly and the ones that closed during the year.

Step 2How should the composite be built?

The rules come from the Global Investment Performance StandardsA voluntary global standard for how investment managers calculate and present performance, maintained by CFA Institute. Firms claim compliance for the whole firm, not for one strategy., the voluntary standard many managers follow, and they are simple to state. Every actual, fee-paying, discretionary account run to the strategy goes in, returns are weighted by each account's assets, and accounts that closed stay in the history for the periods they were open. For Nakshatra that gives 12.0%. Indian portfolio managers also report performance to a format set by SEBI; confirm the current circular before quoting any rule.

What was advertised, what the strategy actually earned0%10%20%benchmark 14%advertisedTen accounts, same strategy, best to worstAdvertised: best three24.0%All ten, equal weight13.0%All ten, asset weighted12.0%Benchmark14.0%Fair composite: 12.0%, 2.0 points behind
Nakshatra's advertised three accounts averaged 24%, but all ten averaged 13% and, weighted by the money in each, 12.0%, which is 2.0 points behind the 14% benchmark rather than 10 points ahead.
Step 3Why does asset weighting move the number further down?

Because the best accounts were small. The three advertised accounts hold Rs 7 crore of the Rs 40 crore, and the biggest account, Rs 8 crore, returned 12%. A simple average lets each Rs 2 crore account count as much as the Rs 8 crore one, so it tells you what a typical account did, not what the money did. Asset weighting multiplies each return by the account's share of assets and adds them up: 12.0%.

MeasureAccountsWeightingReturnAgainst benchmark
Brochure figure3equal24.0%+10.0
The other seven7equal8.3%-5.7
All ten, simple average10equal13.0%-1.0
Fair composite10by assets12.0%-2.0
The same year reads +10.0 points against the benchmark in the brochure and -2.0 points in a composite that includes every account and weights it by its assets.
Step 4What else should the composite disclose?

The number of accounts, the composite's assets, returns net and gross of fees, and a measure of dispersion. A range of 3% to 26% inside one strategy is itself a finding: accounts run to the same model should not differ by 23 points. It suggests client restrictions, different entry dates or discretion used unevenly, and a client choosing this manager is entitled to know which account they are likely to resemble. Say the limit too: one year of ten accounts is far too little to judge skill in either direction.

Where candidates lose it

Candidates spot the cherry-picking and then answer 13%, the simple average, as if fixing the selection fixed everything. It does not: the best accounts were small, and money-weighted by assets the strategy earned 12.0%.

The other miss is forgetting closed accounts. A manager can flatter a composite by dropping accounts that left after a bad year; the rule is that their history stays in.

What the interviewer asks next

  • An account with heavy client restrictions is excluded from the composite. When is that fair?
  • Why might a manager report both gross and net of fee returns, and which should a client compare with the benchmark?
  • How many years of composite history would you want before judging this manager?
← Case 005Rapid fire on a cement company: from its share price, share count, net debt, EBITDA, capacity and the cost of a new plant, give its enterprise value, EV to EBITDA, EV per tonne, and say whether it is cheaper to buy or to build.Case 007 →A 45-year-old surgeon has Rs 8 crore from selling his clinic stake and a Rs 1.2 crore home loan, and wants Rs 40 lakh a year in today's money from 55. Should he prepay the loan, what are his return and risk objectives, and what is a first allocation?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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