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016

Case 016Strategic and tactical allocationHard

A Rs 2,000 crore pension fund holds 50% listed equity, 35% bonds and 15% private assets, with Rs 180 crore of unfunded commitments. Equities fall 30% and private assets are marked down 10%. What is the new private weight, can it meet its capital calls, and what should it do?

1The situation

Baitarani Port Workers Pension Fund has Rs 2,000 crore: Rs 1,000 crore in listed equities, Rs 700 crore in bonds and Rs 300 crore in private equity and infrastructure funds. Its policy targets 15% in private assets with a cap of 20%. It has also committed Rs 180 crore more to private funds that has not yet been called, and expects those calls over about three years.

In a bad year listed equities fall 30%, bonds are flat, and the private funds report a 10% markdown. Pension payments exceed contributions by about Rs 60 crore a year.

2Your task

What is the private weight now, can the fund meet its calls and pensions, and what should the investment committee do?

Quick check

What is the private assets weight after the fall?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

The private weight rises to about 16.2% without a rupee being bought, and the fund can meet its calls. Private assets are Rs 270 crore of Rs 1,670 crore. If all Rs 180 crore is called from bonds, the weight reaches 26.9%, above the 20% cap, yet bonds of Rs 700 crore cover calls and pensions for years. The committee should not sell private stakes at a discount: rebalance listed assets, slow new commitments and treat the stale marks with caution.

Step 1Why did the private weight rise when nothing was bought?

Because a weight is a fraction, and the bottom of the fraction fell faster than the top. Private assets fell 10% to Rs 270 crore, but the whole fund fell 16.5% to Rs 1,670 crore, so private rose from 15.0% to 16.2%. This is the denominator effectWhen the rest of a portfolio falls in value, an asset whose value falls less becomes a larger share, even though nothing was bought.. A family whose savings shrink while the house holds its value finds the house is suddenly a bigger share of its wealth, without buying another room.

The private weight rises because everything else fellEquity 50.0%Bonds 35.0%Private 15.0%BeforeRs 2,000 crEquity 41.9%Bonds 41.9%Private 16.2%After the fallRs 1,670 crEquity 41.9%Bonds 31.1%Private 26.9%If all Rs 180 cris called from bondsRs 1,670 crdenominatoreffectcallscap 20%
Baitarani's private assets move from 15.0% of the fund to 16.2% because equities fell 30% and private assets were marked down only 10%, and to 26.9% once the Rs 180 crore of commitments is called and paid from bonds.
Step 2What do the unfunded commitments add?

They are money the fund has promised and must pay when asked. If all Rs 180 crore is called and paid from bonds, private assets become Rs 450 crore of the same Rs 1,670 crore, 26.9%, well above the 20% cap, and bonds shrink to Rs 520 crore. This is why committees watch exposure, invested plus unfunded, and not just the invested weight.

Step 3Can the fund meet its calls and pensions?

Yes, comfortably. Calls of about Rs 60 crore a year for three years plus Rs 60 crore of net pension payments is Rs 120 crore a year. Even after rebalancing, the bond sleeve of about Rs 576 crore covers about 4.8 years of that without touching equities or private assets. Distributions from older private funds, which slow in a downturn but rarely stop, add to the cushion. The problem is the weight, not the cash.

Step 4Are the marks telling the truth?

Probably not yet. Private funds value their holdings quarterly and with a lag, so a 10% markdown in a year listed equity fell 30% is likely to grow. If private values had really fallen 20%, the weight would be 14.6%; if they fell like listed equity, 13.0%, below target. Part of the overweight is an artefact of stale prices, which is a strong reason not to sell into it.

How far the private weight is really over target depends on stale marks10%15%20%target 15%reported mark: 16.2%if private fell like listed equity: 13.0%0%-10%-20%-30%True fall in private asset values in the same year
Baitarani's reported private weight of 16.2% rests on a 10% markdown; if private values have really fallen 20% the weight is 14.6%, and if they fell as far as listed equity it is 13.0%, below the 15% target.
Rs croreBeforeAfter the fallAfter rebalancing listed assets
Listed equity1,000700823.5
Bonds700700576.5
Private assets300270270
Total2,0001,6701,670
Private weight15.0%16.2%16.2%
Unfunded commitments180180180
Rebalancing only the listed assets back to a 50 to 35 ratio means buying about Rs 123.5 crore of equities with bonds, and leaves the private weight at 16.2%, inside the 20% cap.
Step 5What should the committee do?

Four things. Do not sell private stakes to fix the weight: selling the Rs 19.5 crore overweight on the secondary market at a 20% discount would lock in a Rs 3.9 crore loss to correct a number that stale marks may soon correct on their own. Rebalance the listed assets, buying about Rs 124 crore of equity with bonds, which buys after the fall rather than before. Slow or pause new commitments for a year, so future calls do not push exposure further. And widen the policy to allow temporary drift above target caused by market moves, reviewed quarterly, so the committee is not forced into a sale by arithmetic.

Where candidates lose it

Most candidates see the weight above target and recommend selling private assets. That is exactly the costly mistake the denominator effect invites: secondary buyers pay a discount in a downturn, and the overweight may disappear as marks catch up.

The second miss is ignoring the unfunded commitments. The invested weight looks tolerable at 16.2%; the exposure once the calls arrive is almost 27%, and that is the number that decides how much to commit next year.

What the interviewer asks next

  • The fund's bonds also fell 10% in the same year. Does the answer change?
  • How would you set a commitment pacing plan for the next three years?
  • Why might a secondary sale still make sense for part of the portfolio?
  • How would you present the stale mark problem to trustees who are not investment specialists?
← Case 015A Rs 1,500 crore credit fund holds 9% in bonds of one issuer, which is downgraded from AA to BB and falls 25%. What happens to NAV, why do early redeemers gain at the expense of those who stay, and how does side-pocketing work?Case 017 →From a universe of 12 stocks with book to price, market value and a month's return, build a value factor long the top third and short the bottom third, show that it is mostly a small cap bet, then rebuild it as a size-neutral two by three sort.

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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