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019

Case 019Performance evaluation and manager selectionHard

A private equity fund called Rs 30, 30 and 25 crore in years 0 to 2, distributed Rs 40, 60 and 70 crore in years 4 to 6, and holds Rs 20 crore of NAV at year 6. Compute TVPI, DPI, IRR and a public market equivalent, and judge the fund.

Neuberger BermanLondon · 2022

1The situation

Pushkarini Growth Partners Fund II took Rs 100 crore of commitments from investors. It called Rs 30 crore in year 0, Rs 30 crore in year 1 and Rs 25 crore in year 2, Rs 85 crore in all. It distributed Rs 40 crore in year 4, Rs 60 crore in year 5 and Rs 70 crore in year 6, and at the end of year 6 still reports Rs 20 crore of NAV. All figures are net of fees and carried interest.

A broad equity index stood at 100, 112, 105, 125, 140, 150 and 165 at the end of years 0 to 6.

2Your task

Compute TVPI, DPI, IRR and the Kaplan-Schoar public market equivalent, and say whether this was a good fund.

Quick check

What is the fund's TVPI?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

A strong fund on every measure: TVPI 2.24x, DPI 2.00x, IRR about 20.5% and a public market equivalent of 1.53. Investors paid in Rs 85 crore and have Rs 170 crore back in cash plus Rs 20 crore of NAV. Most of the value is already realised, so the result does not rest on the manager's own marks, and it returned about 1.53 times what the same cash flows would have earned in the index.

Step 1What do the multiples say?

Always divide by money actually paid in, Rs 85 crore, not the Rs 100 crore committed. TVPITotal value to paid-in: distributions plus remaining NAV, divided by capital called. is (170 + 20) / 85, 2.24 times; DPIDistributions to paid-in: cash returned divided by capital called. The realised part of TVPI. is 170 / 85, 2.00 times; the residual, NAV over paid-in, is only 0.24 times. That last number matters: a fund whose value is mostly cash in hand has proved its result, while one whose value is mostly NAV is still asking you to trust its marks.

Step 2What does the IRR add, and what is the J-curve?

The multiples ignore time; the IRR does not. Solving for the rate that sets the net cash flows, minus 30, minus 30, minus 25, zero, plus 40, plus 60 and plus 90 including NAV, to zero gives an IRR of about 20.5% a year. The cash pattern draws the familiar J-curveThe shape of cumulative cash flows in a private fund: negative in the early years as capital is called and fees paid, rising as investments are sold.: investors are Rs 85 crore down by year 2 and do not break even until year 5. It is like planting a mango orchard: years of spending before the first harvest.

Pushkarini Fund II: cumulative cash to and from investors, Rs crore-80-400+40+80Yr 0Yr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6deepest point -85+85 in cash, plus 20 NAVcallsdistributionsNAV still heldline: cumulative net cash
Pushkarini Fund II's investors are Rs 85 crore out of pocket by year 2 and break even in year 5; by year 6 they are Rs 85 crore ahead in cash with Rs 20 crore of NAV still held, an IRR of about 20.5%.
Step 3Did it beat the public market?

A plain comparison of the fund's IRR with the index's return is unfair, because the fund's money went in and out on its own dates. The public market equivalentA comparison that invests and withdraws the fund cash flows in a public index on the same dates, so timing is matched. fixes that. Kaplan and Schoar's version, published in 2005, divides every call and every distribution by the index level on its date, and compares the totals. Distributions plus final NAV, index-adjusted, are 1.53 times the index-adjusted calls: investors got 53% more than the same timing in the index would have given. The index itself rose from 100 to 165, about 8.7% a year.

The relationship
PME=∑tDt/It+NAV6/I6∑tCt/It=40/140+60/150+90/16530/100+30/112+25/105≈1.53\text{PME} = \frac{\sum_t D_t / I_t + \text{NAV}_6 / I_6}{\sum_t C_t / I_t} = \frac{40/140 + 60/150 + 90/165}{30/100 + 30/112 + 25/105} \approx 1.53
D_t, C_tdistributions and calls in year t
I_tindex level in year t
NAV_6value still held at year 6
What it says in wordsEach rupee in or out is converted into index units on its date; above 1 means the fund beat the index on a like-for-like timing basis.
Each measure answers a different questionTVPI2.24xHow many rupees back, cash plus NAV, per rupee paid in?DPI2.00xHow much of that is already cash in hand?IRR20.5%How fast did the money grow, given the timing?PME1.53Did it beat the index, investing on the same dates?
Pushkarini Fund II returned 2.24 rupees per rupee paid in, 2.00 of it already in cash, at an IRR of about 20.5%, and a public market equivalent of 1.53 shows it beat the index on the same timing.
Step 4So was it a good fund?

Yes, and for three reasons that support each other. The money multiple is high, most of it is already cash, and it beat the index with timing matched. Say the limits: one fund is a small sample, the comparison should also be made against funds of the same vintage year, which a database would provide, and the Rs 15 crore never called was committed capital that investors had to keep ready, earning little, which the IRR does not see.

Where candidates lose it

Candidates divide by commitments instead of paid-in capital and report a TVPI of 1.90x. The multiple measures what the money that was actually invested earned.

The second loss is judging on IRR alone. IRR can be lifted by early distributions or by a subscription credit line that delays calls; interviewers want to hear that a fair judgement uses the multiple, the IRR and a public market comparison together.

What the interviewer asks next

  • The fund used a credit line to delay the year 0 call by a year. What happens to IRR and TVPI?
  • How would you judge a fund with a 25% IRR but a DPI of 0.3x after six years?
  • Why might a public market equivalent against a small cap index be the fairer test for a growth fund?

Asked at Neuberger Berman, Private Equity, London, 2022 (Wall Street Oasis): How would you assess a funds performance, especially a PE funds performance?

← Case 018A payroll software company has earned a 28% return on capital against a 12% cost of capital for ten years, with 4% annual customer churn. What are its competitive advantages and barriers to entry, can it sustain 18% revenue growth, and how much is the excess return worth?Case 020 →A retiree of 60 has Rs 3 crore, spends Rs 15 lakh a year rising with 6% inflation, and expects his portfolio to earn 9%. How many years does the money last, and what starting spending would last 30 years?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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