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035

Case 035Real assets and private marketsCore

Present a data centre development to the investment committee: cost Rs 900 crore, stabilised net operating income Rs 108 crore, a 12% yield on cost against an 8% market cap rate. Show the downside of a delay, a cost overrun and a slow lease-up, and what would make the committee comfortable.

NUNuveenNew York · 2021

1The situation

Your team wants to develop Kaivalya Data Campus, a data centre on the edge of a large Indian city. Total development cost is Rs 900 crore. Once fully leased and running, the campus is expected to earn net operating income of Rs 108 crore a year, a 12% yield on cost. Completed, leased data centres of this kind change hands at an 8% cap rate, meaning buyers pay Rs 100 for every Rs 8 of stabilised income.

You have conviction. The committee has three worries: a 12-month delay, which costs a year of carry at the fund's 9% cost of capital on the money spent; a 15% construction cost overrun; and lease-up stalling at 70% occupancy.

2Your task

Show the yield on cost and the value created in the base case and in each downside, then say what you would put in place to make the committee comfortable.

Quick check

If all three downsides happen together, roughly what is the yield on cost?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

The base case creates about Rs 450 crore of value, and each downside alone still clears the 8% cap rate, but all three together fall to 6.7% and lose about Rs 183 crore. The committee gets comfortable when the combined downside still clears 8%. A fixed-price build contract and an anchor tenant signed before construction do that: mitigated, the combined downside yields about 8.9% and still creates value.

Step 1What is the one comparison that makes a development worth doing?

Someone who builds a house to rent out asks one thing: will the rent, as a share of what I spent, beat the rent-to-price ratio at which finished houses sell? If yes, the house is worth more than it cost the day it is let. A development creates value when its yield on costStabilised net operating income divided by the total cost of developing the asset, including land, construction and financing during the build. exceeds the market cap rateNet operating income divided by the price buyers pay for a completed, income-producing property. An 8% cap rate means a price of 12.5 times income. for finished assets. Kaivalya earns 12% on cost against 8%, so on completion it is worth Rs 1,350 crore, Rs 450 crore more than it cost.

Step 2What does each downside do to the yield on cost?

Take them one at a time, then together. A 12-month delay adds a year of carry, 9% of Rs 900 crore, taking cost to Rs 981 crore and yield to 11.0%. A 15% overrun takes cost to Rs 1,035 crore and yield to 10.4%. Stalling at 70% leased cuts income to Rs 75.6 crore and yield to 8.4%, the most damaging single risk. Each alone still clears 8%, but together they compound to 6.7%, and the campus would be worth about Rs 945 crore against a cost of Rs 1,128 crore.

Yield on cost in each case, against the 8% at which value equals costBuild forRs 900 croreBase casecost 900, income 108.012.0%12-month delaycost 981, income 108.011.0%15% cost overruncost 1,035, income 108.010.4%70% lease-upcost 900, income 75.68.4%All three togethercost 1,128, income 75.66.7%All three, mitigatedcost 1,030, income 91.88.9%8% cap rate: value equals cost
Kaivalya's yield on cost is 12.0% in the base case and stays above the 8% cap rate under any single downside, but falls to 6.7% if delay, overrun and slow lease-up all happen; with a fixed-price contract and an anchor tenant the combined downside recovers to 8.9%.
CaseCost, Rs croreIncome, Rs croreYield on costValue at 8%Value created
Base case900108.012.0%1,350+450
12-month delay981108.011.0%1,350+369
15% cost overrun1,035108.010.4%1,350+315
70% lease-up90075.68.4%945+45
All three together1,12875.66.7%945-183
All three, mitigated1,03091.88.9%1,148+117
Value created ranges from Rs 450 crore in the base case to a loss of Rs 183 crore if every downside arrives unmitigated, and back to a gain of Rs 117 crore once contract and leasing protections are in place.
Step 3What would you put in place to make the committee comfortable?

Answer each worry with a contract, not with conviction. Committee comfort comes from showing that the realistic combined downside still clears the cost of capital, and that the protections are signed rather than hoped for. First, an anchor tenant: a large customer pre-committing to part of the capacity before construction, so occupancy has a floor; here assume that lifts the downside to 85%. Second, a fixed-price construction contract with a capped contingency, so the overrun cannot exceed 5%. Third, delay penalties payable by the contractor and a power supply agreement signed before ground-breaking, since power is often the true bottleneck for data centres. With the first two in place, the combined downside yields 8.9% and still creates about Rs 117 crore.

Say the limits yourself before the committee does. The 8% cap rate is today's market, and if it rises to 9% by completion the base-case value falls by about a ninth; an anchor tenant usually negotiates a lower rent, which trims the base case; and one tenant on a large share of the campus is a concentration risk of its own. Offering these points first is part of what earns trust.

Where candidates lose it

Candidates run each downside on its own, see every one clear 8%, and declare the project safe. The risks are linked: delays and overruns often come together, and a late campus loses tenants to rivals, so the combined case is the one the committee cares about.

The second loss is answering the comfort question with more conviction. Committees are persuaded by contracts that move the downside, such as pre-leasing and fixed-price building, not by a stronger belief in the base case.

What the interviewer asks next

  • The market cap rate rises from 8% to 9% during construction. What happens to the value created in the base case?
  • How would you structure the anchor tenant deal so it does not give away most of the upside?
  • Would you finance the build with more debt to lift equity returns, and what does that do to the downside?

Asked at Nuveen, Real Estate, New York, 2021 (Wall Street Oasis): What are the measures you would take to get an investment or credit committee more comfortable with a potential deal

← Case 034Choose one of three large-cap funds from five years of data: returns of 14.2%, 13.1% and 15.0% against a benchmark's 12.5%, tracking errors of 3%, 1.5% and 7%, and fees of 1.6%, 0.9% and 2.1%. Which manager would you pick?Case 036 →You can overweight one of two sectors by 3 points: private banks with 16% loan growth, 16% return on equity and 2.6 times book, or specialty chemicals with 22% earnings growth, 18% return on equity, 38 times earnings and 15% of downgrades over three years. Which, and what would change your mind?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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