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051

Case 051Fixed income, credit and LDIWarm up

A client needs Rs 20 lakh a year for the next five years. Using a zero-coupon yield curve, what does a bond ladder that meets the need cost today, and which risks does it remove?

1The situation

Shobha Nair, 58, has sold a stake in a family business and wants to fund her daughter's overseas studies and her own living costs over the next five years. She needs exactly Rs 20 lakh at the end of each year for five years, and she does not want to depend on markets to get it.

Zero-coupon government yields for one to five years are 6.8%, 7.0%, 7.1%, 7.2%, 7.3%. Assume she can buy a government zero-coupon bond for each maturity at these yields, and ignore tax and dealing costs for now.

2Your task

How much must she set aside today for the ladder, what does it protect her from, and what does it leave exposed?

Quick check

Roughly what does the five-year ladder cost today?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

The ladder costs about Rs 81.7 lakh today. Each year's Rs 20 lakh is bought with its own zero-coupon bond, priced at its own yield: Rs 18.73 lakh for year one down to Rs 14.06 lakh for year five. The ladder removes the need to sell anything at a bad price and fixes the reinvestment rate. It leaves inflation, early withdrawal and, off government paper, credit risk.

Step 1Why price each year separately instead of using one rate?

Because each payment is a different product with its own price. Think of booking five train tickets for five different dates: each fare is set for its own day, and the total is the sum of five fares, not one fare times five. A zero-coupon bondA bond that pays no interest along the way and returns one fixed amount at maturity; you buy it below that amount and the gap is your return. for year t costs the payment divided by (1 + yt) to the power t, and the ladder is five such purchases. Using a single average yield of about 7.1% gets close here because the curve is fairly flat, but on a steep curve it misprices the far rungs.

Five rungs, five known payments: what each Rs 20 lakh costs today18.73+1.27Year 16.8%17.47+2.53Year 27.0%16.28+3.72Year 37.1%15.14+4.86Year 47.2%14.06+5.94Year 57.3%Each bar pays Rs 20 lakh at maturity; figures above are interest earnedcost todayinterest earnedLadder costsRs 81.7 lakhfor Rs 100 lakh of payouts
Each rung of Shobha Nair's ladder pays Rs 20 lakh; the year one bond costs Rs 18.73 lakh today and the year five bond Rs 14.06 lakh, so the ladder costs Rs 81.7 lakh and interest supplies the other Rs 18.3 lakh.
RungYieldPays at maturity, Rs lakhCost today, Rs lakhInterest earned, Rs lakh
Year 16.8%20.0018.731.27
Year 27.0%20.0017.472.53
Year 37.1%20.0016.283.72
Year 47.2%20.0015.144.86
Year 57.3%20.0014.065.94
Ladder100.0081.6818.32
The later the rung, the less it costs today: the year five bond is bought for Rs 14.06 lakh and earns Rs 5.94 lakh of interest before it pays Rs 20 lakh.
Step 2Which risks has the ladder actually removed?

Three, and it helps to name them in order. First, she never has to sell: each bond matures exactly when the money is needed, so a rise in yields cannot force a sale at a loss. Compare holding one five-year bond and selling a slice each year. If yields rose one point in year one, the bond with four years left would fall roughly 3.7% in price, about Rs 2.3 lakh on what is still invested, and she would sell into that loss. Second, the return is locked at purchase: with zero coupons there is nothing to reinvest, so a fall in rates cannot shrink the payments. Third, the payments do not depend on equity markets, so a crash in year two changes nothing about year two's Rs 20 lakh.

Step 3What does the ladder leave exposed, and what would you tell her?

Inflation first. The ladder fixes rupees, not what the rupees buy: at 5% inflation, year five's Rs 20 lakh buys about what Rs 15.7 lakh buys today. If her daughter's fees rise with inflation, the later rungs need to be larger, or a small growth sleeve should sit alongside the ladder. Second, early withdrawal: if she needs money before a rung matures, that bond is sold at the market price of the day, which brings price risk back. Third, credit: on government paper it is negligible, but a ladder built from corporate bonds or deposits adds default risk to each rung, and a higher yield there is a payment for that risk, not free money.

Tax is a separate question worth raising, not settling on the spot. How the gain on a zero-coupon bond is taxed, and when, depends on the instrument and her circumstances; confirm the current treatment before comparing the ladder with, say, a deposit or a debt fund. A clean answer to the interviewer is the number, the three risks removed, the three left, and one sentence on tax to confirm.

Where candidates lose it

The first loss is answering Rs 100 lakh, five times Rs 20 lakh, as if money waiting five years earns nothing. The second is discounting all five payments at the five-year yield of 7.3%, which slightly understates the cost of the near rungs and shows the interviewer you did not use the curve you were given.

The subtler miss is claiming the ladder removes all risk. It removes market timing and reinvestment risk; it does not protect against inflation, and it brings price risk back the moment she needs money early.

What the interviewer asks next

  • Her daughter's fees rise 8% a year. How would you resize the rungs?
  • Only coupon-paying bonds are available. How does that change the reinvestment risk?
  • Would you build the ladder from corporate bonds yielding 1 point more? What would you check first?
  • How would you use a liquid fund alongside the ladder?
← Case 050Your stock pitch on a restaurant chain says margins rise from 12% to 17% as input costs fall 10%. The interviewer asks: what if costs don't fall? Show earnings per share under both cases and what the current price implies.Case 052 →A client's 70/30 portfolio has just lost ground after a 22% fall in equities, and he calls to sell everything. What are his weights now, what does his policy say to do, and what would selling lock in?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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