Case 089Stock pitch and thesis defenceCore
Pitch a listed jeweller as a quality-at-a-reasonable-price long. Tie it to your investment philosophy and explain how the gold price risk is handled.
1The situation
Sarangi Jewellers runs a chain of branded jewellery stores. Revenue is Rs 11,000 crore and net income Rs 440 crore, a return on equity of 22% on Rs 2,000 crore of equity. The shares trade at 30 times earnings, a market value of Rs 13,200 crore, and the store network is growing about 18% a year.
Of Rs 5,000 crore of assets, 60% is gold inventory. 70% of that inventory is funded by gold metal loansLoans made in gold rather than cash: the borrower receives gold and repays the same weight of gold later, paying a small interest rate. at about 3% interest; the rest is hedged with gold futures. A normal working capital loan would cost about 9%.
2Your task
Pitch it as a quality-at-a-reasonable-price long. What is the philosophy, what is the moat, and what happens to the thesis if gold falls 10%?
Quick check
Gold falls 10%. What happens to Sarangi's equity, on these facts?
Worked solution
Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.
30-second answerThe answer to give first
Sarangi is a quality business at a fair price whose real moat is cheap, gold-matched financing, not jewellery design. Metal loans at 3% instead of 9% save about Rs 94.5 crore a year after tax, 21% of profit, and because they are repaid in gold they cancel the price risk on 70% of the inventory; futures cover the rest. A 10% gold fall leaves equity untouched. At 30 times earnings for 22% returns and 18% growth, the price is full but defensible.
Step 1What philosophy does the pitch sit on?
Say it in one sentence before the stock. For example: buy businesses whose high returns come from a structural advantage, at a price that does not assume the advantage lasts forever. That is quality at a reasonable price, and it tells the interviewer what you will look for: where the 22% return on equity comes from, whether it is durable, and what the 30 times multiple already pays for. A pitch that fits no stated philosophy sounds like a tip.
Step 2Where does the 22% return on equity come from?
Break it apart. A net margin of 4% x asset turnover of 2.2 x leverage of 2.5 gives 22%. The margin is thin, as it is for any gold retailer, because most of the price is metal. The return comes from turning a large gold stock over quickly and funding it cheaply. Metal loans at 3% on Rs 2,100 crore, instead of 9% bank credit, save Rs 126 crore of interest a year, Rs 94.5 crore after tax, which is 21% of net income. A smaller rival paying 9% cannot match its prices and its returns at the same time.
Step 3How is the gold price risk handled?
Think of a baker who borrows flour from the mill and repays in flour: if flour prices fall, the flour in the shop is worth less, but so is the flour owed. A metal loan is owed in grams, not rupees, so when gold falls 10% the Rs 2,100 crore loan shrinks by Rs 210 crore as the inventory loses Rs 300 crore. Futures on the remaining Rs 900 crore gain Rs 90 crore. Unhedged, the same fall would cost Rs 300 crore before tax, about 51% of a year's profit. The company earns making charges and a retail margin, not a bet on the metal.
| Gold falls 10%, Rs crore | Hedged as Sarangi is | Unhedged |
|---|---|---|
| Inventory | -300 | -300 |
| Metal loan owed falls | +210 | 0 |
| Futures gain | +90 | 0 |
| Effect on equity, pre-tax | 0 | -300 |
Step 4Is 30 times a reasonable price?
It is full, and you should say so. An earnings yield of 3.3% growing about 18% a year, on a 22% return against a cost of equity near 13%, justifies a premium multiple while growth lasts. The reasonable-price test is that you are paying for store growth you can see, not for gold rising. The risks to name: a change in the rules on metal loans or import duties, which would remove the funding edge (confirm the current framework), and a sharp gold rally that cuts jewellery volumes even though the balance sheet is hedged.
Where candidates lose it
The common loss is pitching the brand and the store designs as the moat. Customers do switch jewellers; what a smaller rival cannot copy quickly is a funding cost six points lower on its largest asset.
The second is treating the stock as a gold price bet. A candidate who says it will do well if gold rises has not read the balance sheet, and the interviewer will ask what the metal loans are for.
What the interviewer asks next
- What happens to the thesis if metal loans are restricted tomorrow?
- How would you check that the reported hedge actually covers the inventory?
- Why might a jeweller's volumes fall when gold prices rise sharply?
- Pitch the same stock as a short in thirty seconds.
Asked at Franklin Templeton, Equity Research, San Mateo, 2024 (Wall Street Oasis): Prepare heavily on your investment philosophy and know current events along with broader economic implications. Also, keep a stock pitch ready, ideally long.
Company names and figures are illustrative.
