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Portfolio Management puzzles, solved step by step

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  1. 007A company trades at 20 times earnings. It uses cash that was earning 3% after tax to buy back 10% of its shares at the market price. Is the buyback accretive to earnings per share, and by how much?Valuation riddlesCoreFundamental asset managementAsset management

    Try it first

    Which comparison decides whether the buyback lifts earnings per share?

    Show the worked solution

    Yes, it is accretive, by about 4.4%. Take Rs 50 crore of earnings on 10 crore shares at Rs 100, so EPS is Rs 5.00. The buyback spends Rs 100 crore, which was earning Rs 3 crore, so earnings fall to Rs 47 crore while the share count falls to 9 crore. EPS becomes Rs 5.22. It is accretive because the 5% earnings yield beats the 3% return on cash.

    What is the company actually swapping?

    Suppose you hold a fixed deposit paying 3% after tax and use it to buy out a partner's share of a shop that earns 5% on its price. Your income goes up, because you replaced a 3% asset with a 5% one. A buyback is the same trade. The company gives up the after-tax return on its cash and gets back a slice of its own earnings, priced at the earnings yield, which is one over the P/E. At 20 times earnings that yield is 5%, so the swap raises earnings per share. At 33.3 times earnings the yield would be 3% and the buyback would leave EPS unchanged.

    Accretive because the shares earn more than the cash they replaceCash earns, after tax3.0% (what you give up)Shares earn: 1 / P/E of 205.0% (what you buy)Break-even P/E = 1 / 3% = 33.3x. Below it the buyback adds to EPS.Rs 5.00Before: 50 / 10Rs 5.22After: 47 / 9+4.4% EPSAccretion is arithmetic, not value:value is created only if the shareswere bought below what they areworth, whatever EPS does
    The buyback gives up cash earning 3% after tax and buys shares carrying 5% of earnings, so earnings fall from Rs 50 crore to Rs 47 crore while shares fall from 10 crore to 9 crore, and EPS rises from Rs 5.00 to Rs 5.22.

    How do you get the exact number quickly?

    Pick round figures and the answer falls out: Rs 1,000 crore of market value, Rs 50 crore of earnings and 10 crore shares. Earnings drop by 10% of the market value times 3%, which is Rs 3 crore, and shares drop by 10%, so EPS moves by 0.94 divided by 0.90. That is 1.0444, an accretion of 4.44%. The shortcut works for any size of company because only the ratios matter.

    The relationship
    EPS1EPS0=1−f⋅PE⋅yc1−f=1−0.1×20×0.030.9≈1.044\frac{EPS_1}{EPS_0}=\frac{1-f\cdot PE\cdot y_c}{1-f}=\frac{1-0.1\times 20\times 0.03}{0.9}\approx 1.044
    fthe fraction of shares bought back, 10%
    PEthe price to earnings multiple, 20
    y_cthe after-tax return on the cash spent, 3%
    What it says in wordsEPS rises when the lost interest, as a share of earnings, is smaller than the share of the company bought back.

    Does accretive mean the buyback was a good idea?

    No, and a portfolio manager is expected to say so. Accretion is arithmetic about earnings per share; value is created only if the company paid less for its shares than they are worth. A company on a low P/E almost always gets an accretive buyback, even if the shares are overpriced, and one on a high P/E can create value with a dilutive buyback if the shares are cheap relative to future growth. Accretion also ignores risk: swapping cash for shares makes the remaining equity more levered.

    Where candidates lose it

    Candidates answer that a buyback always raises EPS because there are fewer shares. That forgets the lost income on the cash, and at a high enough P/E the buyback dilutes.

    The second trap is stopping at accretive. On a buy-side desk the interviewer usually follows with whether it creates value, and the answer that separates candidates is that the two are different questions.

    What the interviewer asks next

    • At what P/E does the same buyback become dilutive?
    • What if the buyback is funded with new debt at 8% before a 25% tax rate?
    • Why might a buyback that is accretive still destroy value for the remaining shareholders?
  2. 020A stock trades at 60 times earnings and pays no dividend, and its investors require 12% a year. If it should trade at 20 times earnings in ten years, what annual earnings growth does today's price require?Valuation riddlesHardFundamental asset managementAsset management

    Try it first

    Which growth rate does the 60x multiple imply?

    Show the worked solution

    About 25% a year for ten years. With no dividend, all of the 12% return must come from price, so the price in ten years must be 60 x 1.12 to the tenth, about 186 times today's earnings. If the stock then trades at 20 times, earnings must be 186 divided by 20, or 9.32 times today's. That is growth of 25.0% a year. At 15% growth the investor would earn only about 3% a year.

    How do you turn a multiple into a growth forecast?

    Think of paying 60 years of a shop's current profit for the shop. That only makes sense if the profit is going to be far bigger soon. A high multiple is a forecast you can read: work forward from the return investors want, and back from the multiple the stock should end at, and the growth in between is what the price assumes. Here the investor wants 12% a year with no dividend, so the price must grow 3.11 times in ten years, to about 186 times today's earnings. At a mature 20 times, earnings must reach 9.32 times today's level.

    What a 60x multiple needs: earnings growth of 25% a year for a decade2468100246810YearsEarnings, today = 1needed: 9.32at 15%: 4.05gapPrice in 10 years60 x 1.12^10 = 186.4At 20x, earningsmust be 9.32Growth needed25.0% a yearAt 15%: returnonly 3.0% a year
    To justify 60 times earnings today and 20 times in ten years at a 12% return, earnings must grow 25% a year to 9.32 times today's level, while a 15% path reaches only 4.05 and would leave the investor with about 3% a year.
    The relationship
    g=(PE0(1+r)10PE10)1/10−1=(60×3.10620)1/10−1≈25%g=\left(\frac{PE_0(1+r)^{10}}{PE_{10}}\right)^{1/10}-1=\left(\frac{60\times 3.106}{20}\right)^{1/10}-1\approx 25\%
    PE_0, PE_{10}the multiple today, 60, and in ten years, 20
    rthe required return, 12%, all from price since there is no dividend
    gthe annual earnings growth the price requires
    What it says in wordsThe earnings growth needed is the required price growth, adjusted for the multiple shrinking from 60 to 20.

    What do you do with the number once you have it?

    You ask how often a company sustains that growth for a decade, which is rarely, and you say so. The question the interviewer wants answered is not whether the company is good but whether the price has already paid for more than the company is likely to deliver. At a still strong 15% a year, earnings reach 4.05 times today's, the price at 20 times is about 81, and the investor earns about 3.0% a year rather than 12%. Say the limitations: the exit multiple of 20 is an assumption, and buybacks, dividends or a higher exit multiple would lower the growth needed.

    Where candidates lose it

    The common error is saying the stock needs to grow earnings at 12%, the required return. That ignores the multiple falling from 60 to 20, which on its own costs about 10% a year of price.

    The other trap is stopping at the arithmetic. On a fundamental desk the interviewer wants the judgement: 25% for a decade is a demanding assumption, and a reverse calculation like this is how you show a price is stretched without claiming to know the future.

    What the interviewer asks next

    • What growth is needed if the stock still trades at 40 times in ten years?
    • How does paying a 2% dividend change the answer?
    • What required return does today's price imply if earnings grow at 15%?
  3. 028Rs 10 a year forever, starting next year, is worth Rs 100 at a 10% discount rate. What is the same stream worth today if the first payment arrives only in year 4?Valuation riddlesWarm upAsset managementMutual funds

    Try it first

    Pick the answer before you work it.

    Show the worked solution

    About Rs 75.1. The formula C over r gives the value one year before the first payment. With the first payment in year 4, the stream is worth 10 over 0.10, or Rs 100, at year 3. Discount that back three years: 100 over 1.1 cubed is Rs 75.1. As a check, Rs 100 less the present value of the three missing payments, Rs 24.9, gives the same answer.

    Where does the perpetuity formula put its answer in time?

    Think of a pension that starts paying at retirement. Its value on the day before the first cheque is one number; its value to a 30-year-old is that number shrunk by three decades of waiting. C over r values a level perpetuity exactly one period before its first payment, so a delayed stream is the ordinary perpetuity discounted from that point. Here the first payment is in year 4, so C over r lands at year 3, where it reads Rs 100. One more discounting step gets it to today.

    Value the stream where it starts, then bring that one number homeTodayYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8...nonenonenone1010101010Rs 10 a year, forever, from year 4At year 3: 10 / 0.10= Rs 100discount 3 yearsToday75.1Check another way: an immediate perpetuity is worth Rs 100 today.Take away the three missing payments, worth 9.09 + 8.26 + 7.51 = 24.87, and Rs 75.13 is left.
    The stream of Rs 10 a year from year 4 is worth Rs 100 at year 3, and three years of discounting at 10% brings that to Rs 75.1 today. Subtracting the three missing payments, worth Rs 24.87 today, from an immediate perpetuity of Rs 100 gives the same Rs 75.1.

    How do you check it without the formula?

    Start from what you know: Rs 10 a year from year 1 is worth Rs 100. The delayed stream is that same stream with the first three payments cut out. Their present values are 9.09, 8.26 and 7.51, which add to 24.87, and Rs 100 less 24.87 is 75.13. Two methods agreeing to the paisa is what makes the answer safe to say out loud.

    The relationship
    PV=C/r(1+r)3=1001.13=1001.331≈75.13PV = \frac{C/r}{(1+r)^{3}} = \frac{100}{1.1^{3}} = \frac{100}{1.331} \approx 75.13
    Cthe yearly payment, Rs 10
    rthe discount rate, 10%
    3the years between today and one period before the first payment
    What it says in wordsValue the perpetuity where it begins, then discount that single sum back to today.

    This is the same step as a terminal value in a discounted cash flow. The Gordon growth value at the end of year 5 is a year 5 number and must be discounted five years, not six. Counting the periods wrong by one is the most frequent error in valuation models, and this puzzle is the cleanest place to catch it.

    Where candidates lose it

    The two wrong answers come from the timeline. Discounting by 1.1 to the fourth assumes the formula lands at the first payment date rather than one year before it, which gives about Rs 68.3. Subtracting Rs 30 at face value ignores that early money is worth more than later money.

    Draw the timeline, even in the air with your finger. Say where C over r lands before you discount, and offer the subtraction check.

    What the interviewer asks next

    • What is the stream worth if the payments grow at 3% a year from year 4?
    • How much is the delay costing, as a share of the undelayed value?
    • Where does the same off-by-one error show up in a DCF terminal value?
  4. 041Two stocks both have an 11% cost of equity. The value stock's dividends grow 3% a year forever and the growth stock's grow 8%. Using a constant-growth model, what is each stock's equity duration, and roughly how much does each fall if the cost of equity rises by 50 basis points?Valuation riddlesHardBLBlackRockNew York · 2026BLBlackRockNew York · 2026

    Try it first

    Which stock is more sensitive to a rise in the discount rate, and by roughly how much?

    Show the worked solution

    Durations of 12.5 and 33.3 years; the value stock falls about 6% and the growth stock about 14%. With price equal to D over (r minus g), duration is 1 over (r minus g): 1 over 0.08 and 1 over 0.03. A 50 basis point rise takes the spreads to 8.5 and 3.5 points, so prices fall by 1 minus 8/8.5, which is 5.9%, and 1 minus 3/3.5, which is 14.3%.

    Why does a stock have a duration at all?

    Think of two people valuing a lottery ticket: one pays out a small sum every year starting now, the other pays little now and a lot decades from now. If the interest rate rises, the second ticket loses far more value, because its money is further away and gets discounted for longer. An equity is a stream of future cash flows, so like a bond it has a duration: the weighted distance to its cash, and the growth stock's cash sits much further out. In the constant-growth model that distance comes out as 1 over (r minus g).

    Same cost of equity, very different sensitivity to itEquity duration, years = 1 / (r - g)12.5Valueg = 3%33.3Growthg = 8%Price change if r rises 0.5 point-5.9%Value-14.3%GrowthDashed: duration estimate, -6.25% and -16.7%
    At an 11% cost of equity, the value stock growing 3% has a duration of 12.5 years and loses 5.9% if the rate rises half a point, while the growth stock growing 8% has a duration of 33.3 years and loses 14.3%. The dashed lines show that the straight duration estimate overstates both falls.

    How do you get the price changes exactly, and why is the duration estimate too big?

    The price is proportional to 1 over (r minus g), so compare spreads before and after. For the value stock the spread moves from 8 to 8.5 points, a 5.9% price fall; for the growth stock it moves from 3 to 3.5, a 14.3% fall. Duration times the rate change gives 6.25% and 16.7%, a little larger, because price is a curved function of the rate: like a bond with convexity, the stock loses less than the straight-line estimate. The curvature matters more the longer the duration.

    The relationship
    P=D1r−gDeq=−1PdPdr=1r−gPnewPold=r−gr+Δr−gP = \frac{D_1}{r-g} \qquad D_{eq} = -\frac{1}{P}\frac{dP}{dr} = \frac{1}{r-g} \qquad \frac{P_{new}}{P_{old}} = \frac{r-g}{r + \Delta r - g}
    D_1next year's dividend
    rthe cost of equity, 11%
    gthe perpetual growth rate, 3% or 8%
    D_{eq}equity duration, the percentage price change per point of rate change
    What it says in wordsIn a constant-growth model, sensitivity to the discount rate is one over the gap between the rate and the growth rate.

    This is the arithmetic behind a familiar market pattern: when real yields rise sharply, long-duration growth stocks usually fall more than value stocks. Say the limitation too. The model assumes growth is fixed while the rate moves; in practice rates often rise because growth is strong, which can offset part of the fall. And no real company grows at 8% forever, so the growth stock's duration is a stylised upper figure.

    Where candidates lose it

    Candidates often say both stocks move the same because they share a cost of equity, or they compute the percentage change of r, about 4.5%, and apply it to both prices. Neither uses the spread between r and g, which is the whole mechanism.

    State the formula, name the spread, and give the two durations first. Then offer the exact falls and say why they are smaller than the duration estimate.

    What the interviewer asks next

    • What happens to the growth stock's duration if its growth rate rises to 10%?
    • Why might a rate rise driven by stronger growth hurt growth stocks less than this model suggests?
    • How would you hedge the rate sensitivity of a growth-heavy portfolio?

    Asked at BlackRock, Restructuring, New York, 2026 (Wall Street Oasis): Which equities have duration ? multiple stocks vs value stocks
    Asked at BlackRock, Risk and Quantitative Analysis, New York, 2026 (Wall Street Oasis): Which equities have duration? VaR, market views, stock valuation.

  5. 059Why should I buy your college, and how much would you sell it for? Suppose it earns an operating surplus of Rs 40 crore this year, the surplus grows 5% a year for the foreseeable future, and a buyer wants a 12% return.Valuation riddlesCoreWMWellington ManagementBoston · 2024

    Try it first

    What price does the growing surplus support, before land?

    Show the worked solution

    About Rs 600 crore for the operating business, before any value in the land. Next year's surplus is Rs 40 crore grown 5%, or Rs 42 crore. A surplus that grows forever at 5% and is valued at 12% is worth next year's amount divided by the 7-point gap: 42 over 0.07 is Rs 600 crore. The reason to buy is the durability of that surplus: steady demand for seats and fees that can rise with costs.

    What is the question really asking?

    It is a stock pitch in disguise. The interviewer wants two things in order: why this asset produces reliable cash, and what that cash is worth. Answer the why with the quality of the surplus, and the how much with a valuation you can do out loud. For a college the why is simple to say: students keep applying every year, fees are paid in advance, and a college with a good name can raise fees roughly in line with its costs. Those are the reasons the surplus can be treated as growing and durable.

    Why divide by 12% less 5%?

    Think of a rented flat whose rent rises every year. A buyer asking for a 12% return on a rent that grows 5% needs only 7% from the current rent; the other 5% arrives through growth. A cash flow growing at g forever, valued at a required return r, is worth next year's cash flow divided by r minus g. Here that is Rs 42 crore over 0.07, which is Rs 600 crore. Dividing this year's Rs 40 crore instead gives Rs 571 crore, a common small slip: the buyer receives next year's surplus, not this year's.

    The relationship
    V=S1r−g=40×1.050.12−0.05=420.07=600V = \frac{S_1}{r - g} = \frac{40 \times 1.05}{0.12 - 0.05} = \frac{42}{0.07} = 600
    S_1next year's surplus, Rs crore
    rthe buyer's required return
    gthe permanent growth rate of the surplus
    What it says in wordsA growing perpetuity is worth next year's payment divided by the gap between the required return and the growth rate.
    Value of a growing surplus: the gap between return and growth does the work05001,0001,50012%: Rs 600 crore11%: Rs 700 crore13%: Rs 525 croreat 8%: Rs 1,400 croreone point either side of 12%moves value by Rs 100 and Rs 75 crore8%10%12%14%16%Buyer's required return, growth fixed at 5%Rs crore
    With growth fixed at 5%, the college is worth Rs 600 crore at a 12% required return, but Rs 700 crore at 11% and Rs 525 crore at 13%, because value depends on the gap between return and growth and that gap is small.

    Now say what the number is sensitive to. One point on the required return moves the value by Rs 100 crore up or Rs 75 crore down, because a 7-point gap becoming 6 or 8 is a large change in proportion. The land and buildings may be worth more than the operating surplus, so a seller would also ask what the campus fetches as property. And check the structure before promising anyone the surplus: many colleges, in India among other places, are run by trusts or societies, and whether an owner can take surplus out at all is a legal question to confirm.

    Where candidates lose it

    The trap is diving into a formula without answering why. The question starts with why should I buy, and a candidate who opens with a number has skipped the half the interviewer cares about most.

    The arithmetic trap is dividing Rs 40 crore by 12%, which treats a growing surplus as flat and values it at Rs 333 crore. Name the growth, use next year's surplus, and divide by the gap.

    What the interviewer asks next

    • What growth rate is the seller implicitly assuming if he asks Rs 800 crore?
    • How would you value the land separately, and when would it exceed the value of the operating business?
    • What would make you use a higher required return for this college than for a listed education company?

    Asked at Wellington Management, Investment Research, Boston, 2024 (Wall Street Oasis): Why should I buy your College and how much would you sell it for?

  6. 072An equity index trades at 22 times forward earnings, pays out 40% of earnings as dividends, and its long-run earnings growth is expected to be 10% a year. The 10-year government bond yields 7%. Which asset is cheaper?Valuation riddlesHardPIMCOSan Diego · 2026

    Try it first

    The earnings yield is 4.5% and the bond yields 7%. What does that comparison tell you?

    Show the worked solution

    On expected return, equities offer about 11.8% against the bond's 7%, a premium of about 4.8 points. The earnings yield, 1 over 22 or 4.5%, looks worse than 7%, but it ignores growth. The dividend yield is 40% of 4.5%, or 1.82%, and adding 10% growth gives about 11.8%. Whether equities are cheaper depends on whether a 4.8-point premium pays enough for equity risk.

    Why is 4.5% against 7% the wrong comparison?

    Compare a fixed-rent lease with a shop whose profits grow each year. The lease might pay more in year one, but the shop's income keeps rising. A bond's yield is everything it will ever pay, while an earnings yield is only the starting point of a stream expected to grow, so the two cannot be compared directly. The earnings yield of 4.5% sits 2.5 points below the bond, and that gap says almost nothing about which is cheaper.

    Compare expected returns, not an earnings yield with a bond yieldNaive: earnings yield vs bond yield0%4%8%12%4.5%E/P = 1/227.0%10-yr bondequities look 2.5 points worseLike with like: expected returns0%4%8%12%1.8+10 growth11.8%equities7.0%10-yr bondequity premium about 4.8 points
    The earnings yield of 4.5% looks worse than the bond's 7%, but the index's expected return, a 1.8% dividend yield plus 10% growth, is about 11.8%, a premium of about 4.8 points over the bond.

    How do you put them on the same footing?

    Estimate the equity's expected return the way you would a bond's. For a stock or an index, that is roughly the dividend yield plus long-run growth, the logic of the Gordon growth model. The dividend yield is the payout ratio times the earnings yield, and the growth rate does the rest. Here 40% of 4.55% is 1.82%, and 10% growth takes the total to 11.82%. Against 7% on the bond, equities offer 4.82 extra points a year.

    The relationship
    E[R]≈DP+g=0.40×122+10%=1.82%+10%=11.82%E[R] \approx \frac{D}{P} + g = 0.40 \times \frac{1}{22} + 10\% = 1.82\% + 10\% = 11.82\%
    D/Pthe dividend yield, the payout ratio times earnings over price
    glong-run growth in earnings and dividends, 10%
    What it says in wordsAn equity's expected return is roughly its dividend yield plus the rate at which its dividends grow.

    Then test the growth number, because the answer rests on it. Growing earnings 10% while paying out 40% means reinvesting 60% at a return on equity of about 16.7%, which is demanding for a whole market. If growth were 8%, the premium would shrink to about 2.8 points. A view on which asset is cheaper is really a view on whether that premium, after testing growth, pays enough for the extra risk of equities. That is the judgement to state, with the numbers that drive it.

    Where candidates lose it

    The trap is comparing the earnings yield with the bond yield and declaring bonds cheaper. That comparison ignores growth and treats a rising income stream as if it were fixed.

    The second loss is taking the 10% growth at face value. Check it against the payout ratio: growth needs reinvestment, and the implied return on equity tells you whether the number is plausible.

    What the interviewer asks next

    • What equity risk premium would you need to call equities and bonds fairly valued here?
    • How does inflation change the comparison between an earnings yield and a nominal bond yield?
    • What growth rate makes the index's expected return exactly equal to 7%?

    Asked at PIMCO, Debt Capital Markets, San Diego, 2026 (Wall Street Oasis): Which is cheaper us bonds or us equities

  7. 084A bank earns a 16% return on equity, grows at 8% a year and has a 13% cost of equity. What price to book is justified? What happens if its return on equity falls to 13%?Valuation riddlesCoreFundamental asset managementIndian equity research

    Try it first

    At a 13% return on equity, what is the justified price to book?

    Show the worked solution

    1.6 times book at a 16% return on equity, falling to 1.0 times at 13%. The justified multiple is the return on equity less growth, over the cost of equity less growth: 8 over 5 at 16%, and 5 over 5 at 13%. When a bank earns exactly its cost of equity, a rupee of book is worth a rupee, and growth adds nothing.

    Why does a bank earning its cost of equity trade at book?

    Suppose a friend offers to take Rs 1 lakh and pay you exactly the return you could get anywhere else with the same risk. The deal is worth Rs 1 lakh; no more, however large your friend makes it. A bank reinvesting at a return equal to its cost of equity creates no value on the money it keeps, so its book is worth exactly book. Only the spread between the two rates earns a premium.

    A bank is worth its book only when it earns its cost of equity9%11%13%15%17%19%21%0.5x1.0x1.5x2.0x2.5xROE = cost of equity: 1.0xROE 16%: 1.6xworth less than bookvalue createdReturn on equityP/B = (ROE - g)/ (r - g)16%: 8 / 5 = 1.6x13%: 5 / 5 = 1.0xg = 8%, r = 13%held fixed
    With growth at 8% and a 13% cost of equity, the justified price to book is 1.0 times where return on equity equals 13% and rises to 1.6 times at 16%; below 13% the line falls under book, because growth then destroys value.

    Where does the formula come from?

    Start from the dividend discount model. Next year's dividend is book times return on equity times the share paid out. To grow at 8% with a 16% return, the bank must retain half its earnings, since growth is return on equity times retention; that leaves a payout of 1 minus g over ROE. Substituting gives price over book equal to (ROE minus g) over (r minus g). At 16%, retention is 50%, payout 50%, and the multiple 1.6 times.

    The relationship
    PB=ROE−gr−g=0.16−0.080.13−0.08=1.6\frac{P}{B} = \frac{ROE - g}{r - g} = \frac{0.16 - 0.08}{0.13 - 0.08} = 1.6
    ROEreturn on equity, 16%
    glong-run growth, 8%
    rcost of equity, 13%
    What it says in wordsThe premium to book is the return spread over the cost spread, both measured from the growth rate.

    The limit is that every input is a long-run steady state. A bank with a cyclical credit cost earns 20% in good years and 8% in bad ones, and the formula wants the through-cycle figure. Say so, then say which input you would argue about first.

    Where candidates lose it

    The common slip is scaling: 13 is less than 16, so the multiple falls in proportion to about 1.3 times. The relationship is not proportional; it is anchored at 1.0 times where the two rates meet.

    The deeper miss is not seeing that growth is only good when return on equity beats the cost of equity. Below 13%, faster growth lowers the multiple, and saying that out loud is what the question is testing.

    What the interviewer asks next

    • The bank earns 11% on equity. What happens to the multiple if growth rises from 8% to 10%?
    • What return on equity does a price to book of 2.0 times imply at the same growth and cost of equity?
    • Why do lenders with similar returns on equity trade at very different multiples?
  8. 097A stock trades at 25 times trailing earnings, pays out 40% of earnings, earns a 20% return on equity, and has a 12% cost of equity. What growth rate does the price imply, and how does it compare with the growth its reinvestment could support?Valuation riddlesHardFundamental asset managementIndian equity research

    Try it first

    What perpetual growth does the 25x multiple imply?

    Show the worked solution

    The price implies about 10.2% growth for ever, below the 12% that reinvestment could support today. Setting 25 equal to 0.4 x (1 + g) / (0.12 - g) gives g of 2.6 / 25.4. Retaining 60% at a 20% return supports 12%, but 12% for ever equals the cost of equity and would make the stock infinitely valuable, so the market is pricing in returns fading to about 17%.

    What does it mean to work backwards from a multiple?

    If a flat rents for Rs 30,000 a month and sells for Rs 1.2 crore, the price tells you what buyers assume about future rents, whether or not anyone says it. A P/E is the same kind of compressed forecast: fix the payout and the cost of equity, and the multiple pins down the one perpetual growth rate the price assumes. Reverse engineering the price like this is safer than forecasting growth and seeing what multiple falls out.

    The relationship
    25=0.4 (1+g)0.12−g  ⇒  3−25g=0.4+0.4g  ⇒  g=2.625.4≈10.2%25 = \frac{0.4\,(1+g)}{0.12 - g} \;\Rightarrow\; 3 - 25g = 0.4 + 0.4g \;\Rightarrow\; g = \frac{2.6}{25.4} \approx 10.2\%
    0.4payout ratio
    0.12cost of equity
    gthe perpetual growth the price implies
    What it says in wordsThe multiple equals the payout grown one year, divided by the gap between the cost of equity and growth; solve for growth.
    Working backwards from 25x: the market assumes growth fades below 12%Implied by 25x P/E10.2%ROE 20% x retention 60%12.0%cost of equity 12%:growth here meansan infinite P/EPrice implies ROE fading to about 17.1% at the same 60% retentionJustified P/E by growth8%10.8x10%22.0x10.2%25.0x11%44.4x11.5%89.2xpayout 40%, cost of equity 12%
    The 25 times multiple implies 10.2% perpetual growth, below the 12% that 60% retention at a 20% return supports, and the justified P/E rises from 22 times at 10% growth to 89 times at 11.5%, which is why growth near the cost of equity cannot last for ever.

    Is the stock cheap because it can grow faster than the price assumes?

    Not so fast. Sustainable growth is return on equity times retention, 20% x 60% = 12%. But 12% growth for ever equals the cost of equity, which would make the stock worth an infinite multiple, so no price could reflect it; the gap tells you the market expects the 20% return on new investment to fade. At the same 60% retention, the price is consistent with a long-run return on equity of about 17.1%.

    That turns the question into a sharper one: will this business keep earning well above 17% on new money for a long time? That is a question about competition and moats, and it is the right place to spend the next five minutes of the interview. Say also that one-stage models are crude; a two-stage model with high growth fading to a lower rate is the usual next step.

    Where candidates lose it

    The common slip is declaring the stock undervalued because 12% beats 10.2%. Plugging 12% into the model gives division by zero, and a candidate who does not notice has not understood the formula.

    The second slip is using the earnings yield shortcut, 12% minus 4%, which ignores the payout ratio and lands near 8%. Set up the equation and solve it.

    What the interviewer asks next

    • What P/E would be justified if long-run growth were 9%?
    • Rebuild this with a two-stage model: 12% for five years, then 6%.
    • How would a lower payout ratio change the implied growth at the same 25x?
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