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041

Case 041Real estate and infrastructureCore

Buy an office park on Rs 60 crore of net operating income at an 8% cap rate with 60% debt at 9%. NOI grows 4% and you sell at an 8% cap after five years. Work the unlevered and levered returns, with no waterfall.

Carlyle GroupWashington · 2015

1The situation

Prangan Business Park is a leased office campus let to technology and back-office tenants on long leases with yearly rent escalations. Next year's net operating income, rent less property costs, is Rs 60 crore. A real estate fund can buy it at an 8% cap rateCapitalisation rate: net operating income divided by the property price. An 8% cap rate means paying 12.5 times NOI., Rs 750 crore.

A bank will lend 60% of the price, Rs 450 crore, interest only at 9%. NOI grows 4% a year. The fund sells at the end of year 5 at the same 8% cap rate on the following year's NOI and repays the loan. Ignore transaction costs, capex reserves and tax.

2Your task

What are the unlevered and levered IRRs, why do they differ, and under what condition does the debt stop helping?

Quick check

The debt costs 9% and the building yields 8% on its price. Does borrowing raise or lower the equity IRR here?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

The unlevered IRR is 12.0% and the levered IRR 15.8%, 1.95x the equity. With the cap rate unchanged, the unlevered return is the 8% yield plus 4% growth. Debt at 9% costs more than the 8% yield, so year 1 cash on equity falls to 6.5%, but it costs less than the 12% total return, so leverage lifts the IRR. If NOI growth falls below 1%, the debt starts to hurt.

Step 1How do you set up the deal before the returns?

A cap rate is just the rent yield on a flat, scaled up: pay Rs 1 crore for a flat that earns Rs 8 lakh a year after costs and you have bought it at an 8% cap rate. Rs 60 crore of NOI at an 8% cap rate is a Rs 750 crore price, funded by Rs 450 crore of debt costing Rs 40.5 crore a year and Rs 300 crore of equity. Now write two strips of cash: one for the building as if bought with all equity, one for the fund's equity after the bank is paid. The difference between them is the whole lesson.

Step 2What does each strip return?

Unlevered, the fund pays Rs 750 crore, collects NOI that grows from Rs 60.0 crore to Rs 70.2 crore, and sells at 8% on year 6 NOI of Rs 73.0 crore: Rs 912 crore. When the exit cap rate equals the entry cap rate, the unlevered IRR is exactly the cap rate plus the growth rate: 8% plus 4%, 12.0%. Levered, the fund pays Rs 300 crore, collects NOI less Rs 40.5 crore of interest, Rs 19.5 crore in year 1 rising to Rs 29.7 crore, and on sale keeps Rs 462 crore after repaying the loan: an IRR of 15.8% and 1.95x the money.

The same building, two strips of cash, Rs croreUnlevered: IRR 12.0%-75060.062.464.967.570.2+912saleYear 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Levered, 60% debt at 9%: IRR 15.8%-30019.521.924.427.029.7+462saleYear 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Yearly cash at 0.6 px per crore; purchase and sale are drawn smaller and labelled.
Unlevered, Rs 750 crore buys five years of NOI from Rs 60.0 crore to Rs 70.2 crore and a Rs 912 crore sale, an IRR of 12.0%; levered, Rs 300 crore of equity buys the NOI after Rs 40.5 crore of interest and Rs 462 crore on sale, an IRR of 15.8%.
Step 3Why does debt at 9% help when the building yields 8%?

Two different comparisons are hiding here. Against the 8% cap rate, the 9% loan is negative leverage for income: the equity's year 1 cash yield is Rs 19.5 crore on Rs 300 crore, 6.5%, below the 8% an all-equity buyer earns. Against the building's total return of 12%, the loan is cheap, so the equity gains on every rupee of growth and on the sale. Leverage lifts the IRR only because the growth arrives. Set growth to zero and the unlevered IRR is 8.0% while the levered IRR falls to 6.5%; the lines cross at 1% growth, where the building's return equals the 9% cost of debt.

IRR against NOI growth: leverage helps only above the cost of debt5%10%15%20%0%-2%0%+2%+4%+6%Yearly NOI growthcost of debt 9%cross at 1% growthleverage hurts herelevered 15.8%unlevered 12.0%
The unlevered IRR rises one for one with NOI growth from the 8% cap rate, the levered IRR rises faster, and the two cross at 1% growth where the unlevered return equals the 9% cost of debt, so below that point the loan lowers the equity return.
CaseExit valueUnlevered IRRLevered IRRDoes debt help?
Base: 4% growth, exit at 8%91212.0%15.8%Yes
No NOI growth7508.0%6.5%No
4% growth, exit at 9% cap8119.9%11.2%Barely
1% growth, exit at 8%7889.0%9.0%Neutral
Rs crore. Debt raises the equity IRR from 12.0% to 15.8% in the base case, lowers it from 8.0% to 6.5% with no growth, and adds little if the exit cap rate widens to 9%, because a one point wider cap takes Rs 101 crore off the sale.
Step 4What would you say about the risks?

Two numbers carry this deal, and neither is the rent. The exit cap rate: a sale at 9% instead of 8% takes Rs 101 crore off the price and cuts the levered IRR to 11.2%; and growth: below 1% a year the debt destroys value rather than adding it. Diligence goes to the lease expiry profile, the escalation clauses and the tenants' own businesses, because a large tenant leaving in year 4 hits both numbers at once. The limit of the case is that it ignores the capex a building needs to keep tenants, which in an older office campus can take several points off NOI, and the transaction costs that a real model adds to the price.

Where candidates lose it

The usual loss is comparing the 9% loan with the 8% cap rate and declaring the leverage negative. It is negative for current income, but the IRR depends on the total return, yield plus growth, and that is 12%.

The second miss is forgetting to repay the loan at sale. Levered exit proceeds are the sale price less Rs 450 crore, and leaving the loan in makes the levered IRR absurd.

What the interviewer asks next

  • What loan to value maximises the levered IRR here, and why would a fund not choose it?
  • The bank offers 65% at 10%. Better or worse for the equity?
  • How would you build a simple waterfall if the fund's investors get an 8% preferred return?

Asked at Carlyle Group, Asset Management, Washington, 2015 (Wall Street Oasis): Case study was a typical PE real estate acquisition with no waterfall analysis.

← Case 040A sponsor asks for 6x adjusted EBITDA. Reported EBITDA is Rs 80 crore and the adjusted figure of Rs 100 crore includes Rs 20 crore of add-backs. What leverage is that on reported EBITDA, and which add-backs would you accept?Case 042 →Rank four businesses in one auto supply chain as buyout investments: a steel supplier, a component maker, a vehicle maker and a dealer group. Margins, capex, customer concentration and bargaining power are given.

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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