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047

Case 047Returns attribution and value creationCore

In a case pack, the plan takes a uniform maker's EBITDA margin from 10% to 15% on Rs 500 crore of revenue growing 8%. Entry and exit at 9x with 4x debt. What share of the IRR depends on the margin plan, and what evidence would you ask for?

1The situation

Pehchan Uniforms makes school and corporate uniforms in three factories. Revenue is Rs 500 crore, growing 8% a year, and EBITDA margin is 10%, Rs 50 crore. Management's plan in the case pack raises the margin by a point a year to 15% in year 5 through central fabric buying, automated cutting, price escalators in school contracts and more corporate business.

A sponsor buys at 9x, Rs 450 crore, with 4x debt, Rs 200 crore at 10%, and Rs 250 crore of equity. Depreciation and capex are each 2% of revenue, working capital is 10% of each year's revenue increase, tax is 25%, and all spare cash repays debt. Exit at 9x after five years.

2Your task

Work the IRR with and without the margin plan, say what share of the return depends on it, and list the evidence you would ask for.

Quick check

Roughly what share of the deal's IRR depends on the margin plan?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

The margin plan carries 43% of the IRR and 57% of the money made: 31.4% with it, 17.7% without. Exit EBITDA is Rs 110 crore with the plan and Rs 73 crore without, and the extra cash also repays more debt. With so much resting on one lever, diligence goes to the four sources of margin: signed fabric quotes, pilot line data, contract escalators and the corporate pipeline.

Step 1How do you isolate the margin plan's contribution?

Run the deal twice, changing only the margin. A tailor who doubles her orders and also starts buying cloth wholesale has two sources of extra profit; to know which one matters, you price her year with the cheaper cloth and without it. With the plan, revenue grows to Rs 735 crore and EBITDA to Rs 110 crore; with the margin held at 10%, the same revenue gives Rs 73 crore. At 9x that is Rs 992 crore against Rs 661 crore of exit value, and the higher cash flow also takes debt to Rs 14 crore instead of Rs 96 crore.

YearRevenueMarginEBITDA, planDebt, planEBITDA, flatDebt, flat
154011%59.4182.654.0186.6
258312%70.0156.858.3169.9
363013%81.9121.363.0149.5
468014%95.274.268.0125.0
573515%110.213.673.595.7
Rs crore. The margin plan lifts year 5 EBITDA from Rs 73.5 crore to Rs 110.2 crore and, through the extra cash, cuts exit debt from Rs 96 crore to Rs 14 crore.
Step 2What share of the return depends on it?

With the plan, equity of Rs 250 crore becomes Rs 978 crore, 3.91x and 31.4%; without it, Rs 565 crore, 2.26x and 17.7%. The margin plan supplies 13.6 of the 31.4 points of IRR, 43%, and Rs 413 crore of the Rs 728 crore of money made, 57%. Revenue growth alone gives a respectable 18%, which is the floor if the plan fails completely, and the number to quote first when an investment committee asks what happens if management is wrong.

IRR with and without the margin plan: one lever carries almost half the returnRevenue growth only, margin flat at 10%IRR 17.7%2.26x, exit EBITDA 73With the margin plan, 10% to 15%IRR 31.4%3.91x, exit EBITDA 110+13.6 ptsThe margin plan is 43% of the IRR and 57% of the equity gain,so diligence goes to the four margin levers before anything else.
The deal earns 31.4% with the margin plan and 17.7% without it, so the move from 10% to 15% margin supplies 43% of the IRR and 57% of the equity gain.
Step 3What evidence would you ask for?

Break the five points into the levers and ask for proof of each, in order of size. When most of the return rests on one plan, diligence goes there, and the plan is only as good as its largest line. Central fabric buying is worth 2 points: ask for signed quotes at the new price and the volumes they assume. Automated cutting is 1.5 points: ask for output per worker on the pilot line before and after, and the capex it needs, which this case left in the 2% of revenue. Escalators are 1 point: read the school contracts already signed, not the ones the plan hopes to sign. Corporate mix is half a point: ask for the named pipeline and the margins on the last ten corporate orders.

Where the five margin points are meant to come from, % of revenue10.0%Today+2.0Fabric boughtcentrally+1.5Automated cutting+1.0Price escalatorsin school contracts+0.5More corporateuniforms15.0%Year 5plan
The plan's five margin points come from central fabric buying, 2.0, automated cutting, 1.5, price escalators in school contracts, 1.0, and a shift to corporate uniforms, 0.5, so the two largest levers carry seven tenths of the margin case.

Then say how you would underwrite it. A disciplined sponsor credits the levers with hard evidence, perhaps fabric and escalators, three points, and treats the rest as upside. Even half the plan would lift the return well above the flat case. The limit of this attribution is that the levers interact with growth: automated cutting may also free capacity that lets revenue grow faster, which this simple split does not capture.

Where candidates lose it

The usual loss is reporting the plan's IRR as the answer, 31%, without running the flat case. The question asks what depends on the plan, which needs the second run.

The second miss is asking for generic evidence, management's track record, the market. The interviewer wants the specific proof for each lever, matched to how many margin points it carries.

What the interviewer asks next

  • If only the fabric and escalator levers arrive, what is the IRR?
  • Automated cutting needs Rs 30 crore of extra capex in year 1. Does it still pay?
  • How would you write the management incentive plan around the margin target?
← Case 046A direct-to-consumer cosmetics brand has 20 lakh monthly visitors, 2.5% conversion, an average order of Rs 900 and 35% of buyers coming back within a year. Build annual revenue and say which lever the sponsor should push first.Case 048 →Debt-for-equity restructuring: a shipyard owes Rs 1,200 crore on Rs 100 crore of EBITDA. Lenders cut debt to 4x and take 70% of the equity, with enterprise value at 7x. What do the lenders recover in debt and equity, and what do the old shareholders keep?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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