Case 013Market view and security pitchWarm up
Explain last month to a client: equity fell 4% on 60% of her portfolio, debt rose 1% on 30% and gold rose 3% on 10%. What did her portfolio do, and which part drove it?
1The situation
Sudha Menon-Pillai, 62, has a Rs 2.5 crore portfolio held 60% in equity funds, 30% in debt funds and 10% in gold, weights set at her last review. Last month equity fell 4%, debt returned 1% and gold rose 3%.
She calls after reading a headline that markets had their worst month in a year. She wants to know how much she lost, why, and whether anything needs to change. Assume the weights were exactly on target at the start of the month and nothing was bought or sold.
2Your task
Work out the portfolio's return in per cent and in rupees, say which sleeve drove it, and give her the two or three sentences you would actually say.
Quick check
What did Sudha's portfolio return last month?
Worked solution
Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.
30-second answerThe answer to give first
Her portfolio fell 1.8%, about Rs 4.5 lakh, and equity caused all of it. Equity, 60% of the money, fell 4% and took off 2.4 points. Debt and gold added 0.3 each, softening the fall by 0.6 points. Equity has drifted to about 58.7% of the portfolio, well within any sensible rebalancing band, so nothing needs to change.
Step 1How do you work out what the portfolio did?
Think of a household where 60% of income comes from one job, 30% from rent and 10% from a small business. If the job pays 4% less, household income does not fall 4%; it falls by 60% of that. A portfolio's return is the sum of each sleeve's weight times its return, and each product is that sleeve's contribution. Equity contributes 0.6 times -4%, or -2.4 points. Debt contributes 0.3 times 1%, +0.3. Gold contributes 0.1 times 3%, +0.3. Total: -1.8%.
| Sleeve | Weight | Return | Contribution, points | Rs lakh |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | 60% | -4% | -2.4 | -6.00 |
| Debt | 30% | +1% | +0.3 | +0.75 |
| Gold | 10% | +3% | +0.3 | +0.75 |
| Portfolio | 100% | -1.8 | -4.50 |
Step 2What do you actually say to her?
Lead with the number she asked for, then the reason, then what it means. Something like: your portfolio fell 1.8% last month, about Rs 4.5 lakh. All of that came from the equity part, which fell 4%; the debt and gold did their job and took the edge off. The fall is in line with the plan we agreed: a 60% equity portfolio is built to move less than the market in a bad month, and it did. Keep it to three sentences before she asks anything else; a client who called worried wants the answer, not a lecture on attribution.
Step 3Does anything need to change?
Check the weights, not the headline. After the month, equity is Rs 144.0 lakh of Rs 245.5 lakh, about 58.7%, against a 60% target. A drift of about 1.3 points is noise; a portfolio is rebalanced when a sleeve moves outside an agreed band, often around five points, not after every bad month. Nothing about Sudha's needs or her horizon has changed either, so the plan stands. Say the limit plainly: a month is too short to judge anything about the funds themselves.
Where candidates lose it
The classic slip is averaging the three returns, getting zero, and telling the client she was flat. Weights are the whole point of the question.
The other is answering in percentages only, or starting with market commentary. A worried client first needs the rupee number and the one-line reason; the explanation of why rates or gold moved can wait.
What the interviewer asks next
- Her equity funds fell 4% while their index fell 3.5%. How would you split the equity loss into allocation and selection?
- Next month equity rises 6%. What does the portfolio do, and what is the new equity weight?
- At what drift would you rebalance, and why that number?
Company names and figures are illustrative.
