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016

Case 016Goal and retirement planningHard

A 60-year-old with Rs 5 crore spends Rs 20 lakh a year, rising with 6% inflation. Build a three-bucket plan, size each bucket, set the refill rule, and show it surviving a bad start.

1The situation

Vinay Kolhatkar retires at 60 with Rs 5 crore of investments, a paid-off home and no pension. He spends Rs 20 lakh a year and expects that to rise with inflation of about 6%. He has watched friends sell shares in a crash to pay bills and wants a plan that will never force him to do that.

His adviser proposes three buckets: three years of spending in liquid funds, the next five years in debt, and the rest in equity. Use illustrative returns of 6% on liquid funds, 7% on debt and 11% on equity for sizing, and ignore tax for this exercise.

2Your task

Size each bucket, write the refill rule, and show what happens if equity falls 30% in year one and 10% in year two.

Quick check

Equity falls 30% in Vinay's first year. Under a sound bucket rule, where does next year's spending come from?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Put Rs 63.7 lakh in liquid funds, Rs 134.3 lakh in debt and Rs 302.1 lakh in equity. Bucket 1 holds three years of rising spending and bucket 2 the next five. Bucket 2 refills bucket 1 every year; equity refills bucket 2 only from a year's gains. If equity falls 30% then 10%, no equity is sold for two years and bucket 2 never drops below Rs 109 lakh.

Step 1What problem do the buckets solve?

Picture a farmer who keeps three years of grain in the store and plants the rest. A bad harvest does not mean eating the seed. A retiree's real risk is not volatility itself but being forced to sell equity after a fall to pay the bills, which turns a temporary loss into a permanent one. This is sequence riskThe danger that poor returns early in retirement, while withdrawals are being made, do lasting damage that the same returns later would not.: the same average return does far more harm if the bad years come first. The buckets make sure the bills are paid from money that does not fall.

Step 2How big is each bucket?

Size by spending, year by year, with inflation built in. Years 1 to 3 cost Rs 20.0, 21.2 and 22.5 lakh: Rs 63.7 lakh in liquid funds. Years 4 to 8 cost Rs 23.8 lakh rising to Rs 30.1 lakh: Rs 134.3 lakh in debt. Everything left, Rs 302.1 lakh or about 60%, goes to equity, because money not needed for eight years can ride out a bad market. The blended illustrative return is about 9.3%, against a starting withdrawal of 4% of the portfolio.

Three buckets: spending never has to wait for equity to recoverBucket 1: liquid fundsRs 63.7 lakhYears 1 to 3 of spendingBucket 2: debtRs 134.3 lakhYears 4 to 8 of spendingBucket 3: equityRs 302.1 lakhYear 9 onwards: growthgains only,in up yearsevery yearRs 20 lakh a year, rising 6%, to VinayAfter a fall in equity: sell no equity;bucket 2 carries the refills until it recovers
Vinay's Rs 5 crore splits into Rs 63.7 lakh of liquid funds for three years of spending, Rs 134.3 lakh of debt for the next five and Rs 302.1 lakh of equity, with debt refilling liquid every year and equity refilling debt only from gains.
Step 3What exactly is the refill rule?

Write it so that nobody has to decide anything in a panic. Each year end: first, move money from bucket 2 to bring bucket 1 back to the next three years of spending. Second, only if equity rose that year, sell up to that year's gain to bring bucket 2 back to five years of spending. In a year equity falls, sell no equity at all; bucket 2 absorbs the refill and is rebuilt from later gains. Selling only gains, not selling to a fixed weight, stops the rule from draining a bucket that is still below where it started.

Step 4Does the plan survive a bad start?

Run it. Equity falls 30% in year one and 10% in year two, then returns 20%, 15%, 12% and 10% a year. In years 1 and 2 no equity is sold; bucket 2 refills the liquid bucket and falls from Rs 134.3 lakh to Rs 108.6 lakh, still more than four years of spending. Equity sits at Rs 190.3 lakh at the low and is never sold there; in year 3 its Rs 38.1 lakh gain starts rebuilding bucket 2. Every year's spending is paid in full.

Year endEquity returnLiquidDebtEquityEquity sold
0start63.7134.3302.10.0
1-30%67.5122.5211.40.0
2-10%71.5108.6190.30.0
3+20%75.8130.4190.338.1
4+15%80.4142.8190.328.5
Rs lakh. Through a 30% and then a 10% equity fall, Vinay's liquid bucket stays full, debt falls to Rs 108.6 lakh, and no equity is sold until year 3, when Rs 38.1 lakh of gains is moved to debt.
A bad start: equity falls twice, and not a rupee of it is sold at the lowYr 0Yr 1-30%sold 0Yr 2-10%sold 0Yr 3+20%sold 38Yr 4+15%sold 29Yr 5+12%sold 23Yr 6+10%sold 19Yr 7+10%sold 19Yr 8+10%sold 19EquityYearLiquidDebtEquityRs lakh at each year end; labels show equity sold that year
Across eight years that open with 30% and 10% equity falls, Vinay sells no equity in the two bad years, bucket 2 carries the refills down to Rs 109 lakh, and gains from year 3 onward rebuild it.
Step 5What are the plan's limits?

Buckets change when equity is sold, not how much risk the whole portfolio carries; at the start they amount to about 60% equity and 40% liquid and debt, with a disciplined selling rule on top. If equity stays down for more than about six years, bucket 2 runs dry and the plan must cut spending or sell equity after all. On flat illustrative returns the money lasts about 43 years, past Vinay's hundredth birthday, and tax, which this exercise ignores, will shorten that. Review the spending and the bucket sizes every year.

Where candidates lose it

The usual loss is sizing the buckets on today's spending: three times Rs 20 lakh and five times Rs 20 lakh. With 6% inflation that under-funds the debt bucket by about Rs 34 lakh, and the whole point is that later years cost more.

The second is writing a refill rule that sells equity back to a fixed weight every year. That sells equity after a fall, the one thing the buckets were built to prevent.

What the interviewer asks next

  • Inflation turns out to be 8%, not 6%. Which bucket runs short first, and when?
  • Vinay also wants a Rs 50 lakh gift for his grandson in year 5. Where does it come from?
  • How would you add tax to this plan without breaking the refill rule?
← Case 015In a group assessment, four candidates get 30 minutes and a data pack on an entrepreneur with Rs 40 crore and five candidate funds, and must agree a portfolio. What structure does a strong group follow, and what portfolio should it reach?Case 017 →A tech employee holds Rs 2.4 crore of restricted stock units in his US-listed employer, vesting quarterly. Set a sell-on-vest rule and show the currency and tax points at vest and at sale.

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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