Case 091Lump-sum allocationHard
A client returning from the US brings Rs 8.3 crore, about USD 1 million, and faces a USD 300,000 bill for her son's US college in six years. How would you invest it today across asset classes, and why? Treat currency as part of the answer.
1The situation
Kavya Rastogi, 44, has moved back to Pune after fifteen years in the US and brings USD 1 million of savings, Rs 8.3 crore at an illustrative Rs 83 to the dollar. She has a job in India that covers her living costs. Her son starts at a US university in six years; the family has budgeted USD 300,000 for it, paid in dollars, about Rs 2.5 crore at today's rate. The rest is for her own long-term future in India.
Use illustrative returns: 4% a year on high-quality dollar bonds, 7% on rupee debt, and assume the rupee weakens by about 3% a year on average, which is roughly what that interest gap implies. Whether and how she can hold dollar assets as a returning resident, and how each is taxed, must be confirmed under current rules.
2Your task
Split the USD 1 million across currencies and asset classes, and show why currency is part of the answer rather than an afterthought.
Quick check
Why hold part of the money in dollars at all, if dollar bonds pay less than rupee debt?
Worked solution
Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.
30-second answerThe answer to give first
Keep about USD 237k in high-quality dollar bonds matched to the college bill, and bring the rest home: a Rs 30 lakh reserve and about Rs 6.0 crore in a 60/40 rupee portfolio. At 4% the dollar sleeve grows to USD 300,000 in six years, paying the bill whatever the rupee does. Funding it in rupees would earn more interest but leave a Rs 35 lakh hole if the rupee reached 110. Currency is matched to where the money is spent.
Step 1What decides the allocation before any asset class?
What the money is for, in which currency and when. A family saving for a daughter's wedding in Dubai would keep dirhams for it, not rupees that must be converted at whatever the rate happens to be. Kavya has two jobs for the money: a fixed dollar bill in six years, and an open-ended future in rupees; each job gets its own assets in its own currency. Only after that split does the usual question of equity against debt come in, and it applies to the rupee side.
Step 2How big is the dollar sleeve?
Size it to the bill, not to a percentage. USD 300,000 in six years at 4% needs USD 237,094 today, about Rs 1.97 crore, held in high-quality dollar bonds or deposits maturing near the first fee date. That is an asset-liability matchHolding assets whose currency, timing and amount mirror a known future payment, so market moves change both sides equally.: whatever the rupee does, the dollars arrive when the dollars are due. Equity has no place in this sleeve; a six-year horizon for a fixed bill is too short to carry it.
| 300,000 | the college bill in dollars, due in year six |
| 1.04^6 | growth at an assumed 4% a year on dollar bonds |
| 83 | illustrative rupees per dollar today |
Step 3Why not bring it all home and earn the higher rupee rate?
Because the higher rate is mostly the price of the rupee's expected fall. Rs 1.97 crore at 7% becomes Rs 2.95 crore in six years, and at a rupee of about 99, a 3% a year fall, the bill costs Rs 2.97 crore: roughly a draw. The trouble is the spread of outcomes: at 90 she has Rs 25 lakh spare, at 110 she is Rs 35 lakh short, and a college fee cannot be paid late. Matching gives up nothing on average and removes the hole.
Step 4What goes into the rupee side, and what must be confirmed?
A reserve and a long-horizon portfolio. Rs 30 lakh sits in a sweep account and a liquid fund; the remaining Rs 6.03 crore goes 60% into diversified equity, some of it global, and 40% into high-quality rupee debt. At 44 with a salary covering her costs, she can carry that equity for twenty years. Then name what must be checked: her residential status for tax in her first years back, whether she may keep dollar accounts and US securities as a returning resident, and how dollar interest and gains are taxed in India. Those rules decide where the dollar sleeve is held, not whether it exists.
Where candidates lose it
The usual answer is a single percentage split, 60/40 or 70/30, applied to the whole USD 1 million, with currency mentioned at the end. That ignores the one liability the interviewer handed you, which is fixed in dollars and dated.
The second miss is treating the rupee rate as a free lunch. The interest gap is roughly the expected fall in the rupee; converting everything earns the gap on average and takes on the full currency risk on a bill that cannot move.
What the interviewer asks next
- Her son might study in India instead. How would you keep that option open without giving up the match?
- The dollar sleeve earns 4% and the college bill rises 5% a year. What changes?
- How would your answer differ if she expected to move back to the US in ten years?
Asked at Goldman Sachs, Investment Banking, New York, 2025 (Wall Street Oasis): How would you invest $1m today across any combination of asset classes and why?
Company names and figures are illustrative.
