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046

Case 046Operational risk and loss eventsWarm up

A bank's outsourced core banking platform goes down for nine hours on salary day. Compute the direct loss, explain why it understates the damage, and set out the outsourcing controls the bank should have had.

1The situation

Suvimal Bank runs its core banking system and payment switch on a platform hosted by an outside technology vendor. On the first working day of the month, when salaries land, a storage failure at the vendor's data centre takes the platform down at 9 am. Service returns at 6 pm. The vendor's backup site had never been tested at live volumes and could not take over.

About 6 lakh card and UPI transactions fail during the nine hours. Suvimal earns about Rs 3 of fee and interchange income per transaction on average, and it pays Rs 100 of goodwill compensation to 20,000 customers whose failed payments led to bounced bills or late charges. The bank has about 30 lakh salary accounts, and its retail head estimates each earns the bank about Rs 3,000 a year.

2Your task

What is the direct loss, why is it not the real cost, and what should the bank have had in place before the outage?

Quick check

What is Suvimal's direct loss from the outage?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

The direct loss is Rs 38 lakh: Rs 18 lakh of lost income and Rs 20 lakh of compensation. That is the small part. If 1% of 30 lakh salary accounts move elsewhere, the bank loses about Rs 9 crore of revenue a year. The bank, not the vendor, answers to customers and the regulator, so it needed a tested recovery target, an exit plan and audit rights; a working two-hour failover would have cut the direct loss to about Rs 6 lakh.

Step 1What did the outage cost directly?

Hire a caterer for a wedding and the caterer fails to turn up: the guests do not blame the caterer, they blame the family that hired it. Suvimal is the family here. Start with what can be counted. Six lakh failed transactions at Rs 3 each is Rs 18 lakh of lost income, and Rs 100 to each of 20,000 customers is Rs 20 lakh, so the direct loss is Rs 38 lakh. Some of the failed payments will be retried later in the day, so the lost income may be a little lower, but the compensation is paid regardless.

Direct lossBasisRs lakh
Lost fee and interchange income6 lakh failed transactions x Rs 318.0
Goodwill compensation20,000 customers x Rs 10020.0
Direct loss38.0
The outage's countable cost is Rs 18 lakh of lost income on 6 lakh failed transactions plus Rs 20 lakh of compensation to 20,000 customers, Rs 38 lakh in all.

Now look at when the failures happened. Salary day loads the morning: people pay rent, card bills and school fees within hours of being paid. Only 100 thousand of the 6 lakh failures fell in the first two hours; the other 500 thousand came after the point where a working backup site should have taken over.

Nine hours on salary day: 6 lakh failed payments, five sixths after hour two409:006010:008011:008512:007513:007014:007015:006516:005517:002-hour recovery target100 thousand inside it500 thousand after it: what a tested failover would have savedHour starting. Failed card and UPI transactions in each hour, thousand.
Failures ran at 40 to 85 thousand an hour across the nine hours, 6 lakh in all; only 100 thousand fell inside a two-hour recovery target, so a tested failover would have prevented five sixths of them.
Step 2Why is the direct loss the smallest part of the cost?

Because a salary account is a relationship, and a failure on the one day customers most need the bank is the failure they remember. If just 1% of the 30 lakh salary accounts move to another bank, that is 30,000 accounts at Rs 3,000 a year, about Rs 9 crore of revenue lost every year, roughly 24 times the direct loss. The 1% is an assumption, not a measurement, and the right figure could be lower or higher; the point is that a small share of a large base outweighs everything on the incident report.

Two further costs sit outside the Rs 38 lakh. The regulator will ask why a critical service had no working backup, and it can restrict the bank's digital onboarding or impose a penalty; the banking regulator's rules on outsourcing IT services set out what it expects, and the current text should be confirmed rather than recalled. And the bank's own staff spend days on complaints, reversals and reconciliation, a cost that rarely reaches the loss event databaseThe record a bank keeps of every operational loss, with its cause, amount and date, used to measure operational risk and to spot repeating failures. at its full size.

The bill the bank can count is the smallest oneDirect loss with a tested2-hour failover6.3Direct loss as it happenedfees 18 + compensation 2038Revenue lost each year if 1%of salary accounts move900 lakh = Rs 9 crore, every yearRs lakh. Fees and compensation are counted; the revenue line is the retail head's estimate, and it recurs.
Against Rs 38 lakh of direct loss, about Rs 6.3 lakh had the backup worked within two hours, the revenue at risk if 1% of salary accounts leave is about Rs 9 crore a year, so the reputational cost dwarfs the counted one.
Step 3What controls should the bank have had in place?

Outsourcing moves the work to the vendor; it does not move the accountability. The controls follow from that. Before signing: due diligence on the vendor's resilience, and a record of which other banks share the same platform, since one failure there hits them all. In the contract: a recovery time objectiveThe longest a service may be down before it must be restored, agreed in advance; for payments on a busy day it is usually measured in hours, not a working day. for payments of two hours or less, the right to audit, and an exit plan that says how the bank would move to another provider. In operation: a failover to the backup site tested at live volumes at least once a year, with the bank's staff watching, and an incident playbook that tells customers within the hour what is happening.

Price the control against the loss. A failover that worked within two hours would have cut failures to 100 thousand and the direct loss to about Rs 6.3 lakh, and most of the reputational damage with it. The limitation is cost: a hot backup site that can take full volume at a moment's notice is expensive, and the vendor will charge for it. The board's decision is whether that annual cost is smaller than the loss it prevents, and on these numbers, with Rs 9 crore of revenue at stake, the comparison is not close.

Where candidates lose it

The common error is to stop at Rs 38 lakh and call the incident minor. The direct loss is the one number the bank can count, and it is a small fraction of the revenue at stake if customers move their salary accounts.

The second is to say the vendor is responsible. The contract may pay the bank a service credit, but customers, the regulator and the board hold the bank to account for a service it chose to outsource.

What the interviewer asks next

  • The vendor's contract caps service credits at one month's fee of Rs 25 lakh. How does that change your view of the loss?
  • How would you set the recovery time objective for payments compared with monthly statements, and why differently?
  • Two other banks use the same vendor. What risk does that create, and who should track it?
← Case 045A bank's fraud model flags 2% of transactions and catches 70% of fraud; a challenger flags half as many and catches 60%. Given the cost of a missed fraud and of reviewing an alert, which model should the bank run?Case 047 →A toll road with a 15-year concession is sized for debt at 1.3 times cover on its base case. How much can it borrow, and what happens to cover if traffic comes in 15% below the forecast?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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