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050

Case 050Corporate credit and ratingsCore

A cement company needs Rs 1,500 crore for a new plant and can fund it with debt, new equity, or its own cash plus debt. Compare leverage and liquidity under each, and say which mix a lender should prefer.

Moody'sNew York · 2022

1The situation

Tarkesh Cement, a regional cement maker, plans a new grinding unit costing Rs 1,500 crore. It has EBITDA of Rs 900 crore, debt of Rs 1,800 crore and cash of Rs 700 crore. The plant takes two years to build and is expected to add Rs 250 crore of EBITDA once running. Its existing loan agreement caps net debt at 3.0 times EBITDA, an illustrative covenant.

The CFO puts three options to the bank's credit team: borrow the full Rs 1,500 crore, raise it all as new equity, or use Rs 500 crore of cash and borrow Rs 1,000 crore. Cement demand moves with construction activity, and the credit team's downside case takes EBITDA 20% lower during the build.

2Your task

What do net leverage and liquidity look like under each option, and which funding mix would you push for from the lender's seat?

Quick check

Using Rs 500 crore of cash plus Rs 1,000 crore of debt instead of borrowing it all: what happens to net debt to EBITDA?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

All debt and cash plus debt both take net debt to Rs 2,600 crore, 2.89x EBITDA; all equity keeps it at 1.22x. Spending cash raises net leverage exactly as borrowing does, and also cuts liquidity from Rs 700 crore to Rs 200 crore during the build. From a lender's seat, Rs 500 crore of equity with Rs 1,000 crore of debt is the better mix: 2.33x, cash kept, and under the 3.0x cap even if EBITDA falls 20%.

Step 1What does each option do to net leverage?

Paying for a car from savings feels different from taking a car loan, but either way you end up with less money between you and the next emergency. Net debt is debt less cash, so Rs 500 crore of cash spent raises net debt by exactly as much as Rs 500 crore borrowed: both the all-debt and the cash-plus-debt options end at net debt of Rs 2,600 crore, 2.89x EBITDA. All new equity leaves net debt at Rs 1,100 crore, 1.22x, because the plant is paid for with money that never has to be repaid.

Cash spent counts exactly like debt raised: two routes, one net debtTodaynet 1,1007001.22xAll new debtnet 2,6007002.89xRs 500 cr cash + 1,000 debtnet 2,600, cash left only 2002.89xAll new equitynet 1,1007001.22xRs 500 cr equity + 1,000 debtnet 2,1007002.33xRs crore. Full bar = gross debt; dashed lime = cash held; dark = net debt. Label = net debt / EBITDA of 900.
Borrowing Rs 1,500 crore and spending Rs 500 crore of cash plus borrowing Rs 1,000 crore both leave Tarkesh with net debt of Rs 2,600 crore, 2.89x EBITDA; all equity holds it at 1.22x and a Rs 500 crore equity plus Rs 1,000 crore debt mix lands at 2.33x.
Rs croreGross debtCashNet debtNet debt / EBITDAGross debt / EBITDA
Today1,8007001,1001.22x2.00x
All new debt3,3007002,6002.89x3.67x
Rs 500 cr cash + 1,000 debt2,8002002,6002.89x3.11x
All new equity1,8007001,1001.22x2.00x
Rs 500 cr equity + 1,000 debt2,8007002,1002.33x3.11x
The cash route shows lower gross leverage than all debt, 3.11x against 3.67x, but identical net leverage of 2.89x, with Rs 200 crore of cash left instead of Rs 700 crore.
Step 2Why does the lender care about the cash if net leverage is the same?

Because net debt assumes the cash will always be there to repay debt, and the cash is exactly what a company spends first when things go wrong. For the next two years the plant earns nothing, so interest, cost overruns and a weak cement season must all be met from existing EBITDA and the cash pile; Rs 200 crore is a much thinner cushion than Rs 700 crore. A lender reads liquidityThe cash and undrawn credit lines a company can use at short notice to meet its payments, separate from how much it owes in total. separately from leverage for this reason: leverage tells you whether the debt can be repaid over years, liquidity tells you whether the company survives the next bad quarter. The cash option also has one honest advantage, lower gross debt and so less interest, but it buys that saving with the cushion.

Step 3Which mix would you push for from the lender's seat?

Test each option in the downside case, because a covenant is breached in bad years, not average ones. With EBITDA 20% lower, at Rs 720 crore, both the all-debt and the cash-plus-debt options reach 3.61x and breach the 3.0x cap, while Rs 500 crore of equity plus Rs 1,000 crore of debt reaches 2.92x and keeps all Rs 700 crore of cash. The all-debt option has headroom for only a 3.7% fall in EBITDA before breaching; the mix can absorb 22.2%.

In a 20% EBITDA downturn, only the options that keep cash stay under the cap2.893.61All debt2.893.61Cash + debt1.221.53All equity2.332.92Equity + debt3.0x cap(illustrative)EBITDA 900, todayEBITDA 720, 20% lower
At today's EBITDA every option stays under an illustrative 3.0x cap, but with EBITDA 20% lower the all-debt and cash-plus-debt options rise to 3.61x and breach it, while the equity-plus-debt mix reaches 2.92x and all equity 1.53x.

So the lender should push for Rs 500 crore of new equity alongside Rs 1,000 crore of debt, with the cash left on the balance sheet. All equity is safest for the lender but the most expensive for the company's shareholders, who would be diluted to fund a plant that should support some debt. The limitation is timing: once the plant runs and adds Rs 250 crore of EBITDA, even the all-debt option falls to 2.26x, so the risk sits almost entirely in the two-year build. A lender who accepts more debt should ask for that risk to be covered in another way, such as a cash sweep or a tighter covenant until the plant is running.

Where candidates lose it

The common error is to treat the cash option as safer because it borrows less. Gross debt is lower, but net debt is identical at Rs 2,600 crore, and the company has Rs 500 crore less to fall back on in the years the plant earns nothing.

The second is to judge leverage on today's EBITDA. The test is leverage during the build in a weak year, which is where the all-debt and cash routes breach their covenant.

What the interviewer asks next

  • The company offers a cash sweep of half its free cash flow instead of new equity. Would you accept the all-debt option then?
  • How would a rating agency treat the cash option differently from the all-debt option, if at all?
  • If the plant adds Rs 250 crore of EBITDA on schedule, how quickly does leverage fall under each option?

Asked at Moody's, Generalist, New York, 2022 (Wall Street Oasis): how they are connected. is it better to raise debt equity or cash

← Case 049Run a one-year recession scenario on a bank's corporate and retail books. Compute stressed credit losses and the post-stress CET1 ratio, and say what the static result hides.Case 051 →A bank plans to grow its risk-weighted assets by 18% a year for three years while earning a 13% return on equity and paying out a quarter of it. Project its CET1 ratio and the capital it must raise.

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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