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005

Case 005Down rounds, distress and runwayCore

Udyamik Commerce is offered Rs 20 crore of venture debt with warrants. How much runway does it really add, and what does it cost if the company later sells for Rs 2,000 crore?

1The situation

Udyamik Commerce, a B2B marketplace for kirana suppliers, has Rs 48 crore of cash and burns Rs 4 crore a month. Its last equity round valued it at Rs 800 crore. A venture debt fund offers Rs 20 crore for three years at 14% a year: interest only for the first 12 months, then the principal repaid in 24 equal monthly instalments, with interest on the balance outstanding.

The lender also takes warrants over 0.5% of the company's equity, exercisable at the last-round price, so the warrant costs 0.5% of Rs 800 crore to exercise. The board is weighing this against a small equity extension at the last-round price.

2Your task

How many months of runway does the loan add at today's burn, what is its all-in cost if Udyamik sells for Rs 2,000 crore in four years, and how does that compare with raising the same Rs 20 crore as equity?

Quick check

Rs 20 crore at a burn of Rs 4 crore a month. How much runway does the loan really add?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

The loan adds about 3.4 months of runway, not five, and at a Rs 2,000 crore exit it costs about Rs 11.7 crore, against about Rs 49 crore for the same money raised as equity. Interest totals Rs 5.7 crore and the warrants add Rs 6 crore, an all-in yield of about 24% a year. Debt is cheaper if the company does well and far more dangerous if it does not.

Step 1Why is the runway gain less than twenty divided by four?

A family that takes a personal loan to cover a year of school fees has more cash today, but from next month it also has an instalment to pay. Venture debt extends runway by its size, less every rupee of interest and principal paid before the cash runs out. Here the timing is unkind: the interest-only year ends in month 12, the same month Udyamik's own cash would have run out, so the repayments arrive exactly when the company is thinnest.

Run it month by month. Without the loan, Rs 48 crore lasts 12 months. With it, cash starts at Rs 68 crore, but interest of about Rs 0.23 crore a month is added to the Rs 4 crore burn, and from month 13 a Rs 0.83 crore instalment joins it. The cash now runs out at month 15.4: a gain of 3.4 months, about a third less than the headline five.

Cash left each month, with and without the venture debt, Rs crore2040600No loan: cash runs out at month 12With loan:month 15.4Real gain: 3.4 monthsPrincipal repayments start in month 13061218Months from today
Udyamik's Rs 48 crore lasts 12 months at Rs 4 crore a month; adding the Rs 20 crore loan stretches it only to month 15.4, because interest and, from month 13, principal repayments add to the monthly outflow.
Step 2What does the loan cost in total if the company does well?

Add up what the lender takes. Interest is Rs 5.7 crore across three years: Rs 2.8 crore in the interest-only year and less after, as the balance falls. The warrantsA right to buy shares later at a fixed price. Lenders take them so they share a little of the upside they are not otherwise paid for. give the lender 0.5% of Udyamik for Rs 4 crore; at a Rs 2,000 crore sale that stake is worth Rs 10 crore, a Rs 6 crore gain. All in, the lender earns about 24% a year, against a 14% coupon, and the warrants supply most of the difference.

What the lender is paid: interest, principal, and the warrant at exitQ1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q6Q7Q8Q9Q10Q11Q12Interest only for a year,then Rs 2.5 crore of principal a quarterinterestprincipalTotal interest over three years: Rs 5.7 crore4Exercise cost10+6Worth at exitWarrant on 0.5%, Rs 2,000 cr exit
The lender receives Rs 0.70 crore of interest a quarter for the first year, then Rs 2.5 crore of principal a quarter plus falling interest, Rs 5.7 crore of interest in all, and its 0.5% warrant turns Rs 4 crore into Rs 10 crore at a Rs 2,000 crore exit.
Rs 20 crore raised asCost at a Rs 2,000 crore exitCost if the company struggles
Venture debt with warrants11.7Principal and interest still due; covenants can force a sale
Equity at the last-round price48.8Nothing further; the new investor owns 2.44%
Raising the Rs 20 crore as equity at Rs 800 crore pre-money gives away 2.44% of the company, worth Rs 48.8 crore at a Rs 2,000 crore sale, about four times the all-in cost of the debt, but equity never has to be repaid.
Step 3So should the board take it?

Frame it as a bet on the next twelve months. Venture debt is cheap capital for a company that will raise its next round comfortably, and expensive capital for one that will not, because the repayments arrive when the company can least afford them and lenders usually hold covenants that let them call the loan. A strong answer says: take it only if the extra runway carries Udyamik to a milestone that raises equity on better terms, and negotiate a longer interest-only period, because that single term decides how much runway the loan really buys.

Where candidates lose it

The trap is dividing Rs 20 crore by the burn and announcing five months. Debt service is part of the burn, and the amortisation schedule here starts precisely when the company's own cash would have run out.

The second is comparing a 14% coupon with the cost of equity and calling the debt expensive, or cheap, without pricing the warrants. The warrants are small in percentage and large in rupees at a good exit.

What the interviewer asks next

  • The lender offers 18 months of interest only in exchange for warrants over 0.75%. Is that a better deal?
  • What covenants would you expect in this loan, and which one worries you most?
  • At what exit value does the equity extension become cheaper than the debt?
← Case 004Kistvik Credit makes 30-day pay-later loans of Rs 8,000 for a 3% fee. With its funding cost, defaults and servicing costs, does each loan make money, and at what default rate does it break even?Case 006 →Meghvik Capital runs a Rs 250 crore fund on a 2% fee. Does the fee cover the team, and what would each partner earn in carry if the fund returns 2.5x gross?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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