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034

Case 034SaaS metrics and diagnosticsWarm up

Explain SaaS to your grandmother, with numbers: Silaivik Software sells software to tailoring shops either as a one-time licence or as a monthly subscription. Why does the subscription business look worse in year one and better later?

Insight PartnersNew York · 2019

1The situation

Silaivik Software makes billing and measurement software for tailoring shops. It can sell it two ways: a one-time licence for Rs 1.2 lakh, or a subscription at Rs 3,000 a month, Rs 36,000 a year. Either way it signs up 100 new shops a year.

Licence buyers pay once and keep the software. Subscribers pay every year they stay, and 10% of them leave each year. For simplicity, new shops join at the start of the year and pay for the full year, and departures happen at the year end.

2Your task

Compare five years of revenue under each model, explain to a non-specialist why the subscription business looks worse in year one, and say what an investor values in it.

Quick check

In year one, how does subscription revenue compare with licence revenue?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

A subscription earns less up front and more over time: Rs 36 lakh in year one against Rs 120 lakh from licences, overtaking them in year 4. Each year's subscribers stack on the ones who stayed, so revenue climbs to about Rs 147 lakh by year five and keeps rising toward Rs 360 lakh, while licence revenue stays flat. An average subscriber stays ten years and pays Rs 3.6 lakh, three times a licence.

Step 1How would you explain the difference to your grandmother?

Start with something she already knows. Selling a sewing machine brings in its full price once; renting it out brings a small payment every month for as long as the tailor keeps it. In the first month the seller is far ahead. After a few years the renter has collected more, and still has customers paying. Software as a service, SaaS, is the rental model: the customer pays a small amount regularly for software that is kept running for them, instead of buying it outright. That one comparison is the whole answer; the numbers show it.

Silaivik's year one: 100 licences at Rs 1.2 lakh is Rs 120 lakh. 100 subscriptions at Rs 36,000 is Rs 36 lakh, 30% of it. In year two, 90 of the first 100 subscribers stay and 100 new shops join, so 190 shops pay, Rs 68.4 lakh. Licence revenue starts again from zero each year, while subscription revenue starts from the customers who stayed.

Same shops, two ways to charge them: yearly revenue, Rs lakh4080120160Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5366898124147Licence: Rs 120 lakh a year, every yearSubscription starts at 36: under a thirdOvertakes in year 4still risingSubscription base heads toward 1,000 shops, Rs 360 lakh a year
Licence revenue is Rs 120 lakh every year, while subscription revenue starts at Rs 36 lakh, under a third of it, climbs as each year's shops stack on those who stayed, and overtakes the licence in year 4, reaching about Rs 147 lakh in year 5.
YearPaying subscribersLicence revenue, Rs lakhSubscription revenue, Rs lakh
110012036.0
219012068.4
327112097.6
4344120123.8
5410120147.4
Five years600473.2
Over five years licences bring Rs 600 lakh and subscriptions Rs 473.2 lakh, but at the end of year 5 the subscription business has about 410 shops paying every year and the licence business has none.
Step 2If five-year revenue is lower, why do investors prefer the subscription?

Because of what is left at the end. After five years the licence business has sold 500 licences and has nobody obliged to pay it next year; the subscription business has about 410 shops that will pay Rs 36,000 each next year if they stay. With 10% leaving each year and 100 joining, the base heads toward 1,000 shops, Rs 360 lakh a year. An average subscriber stays one over 10%, ten years, and pays Rs 3.6 lakh over its life, three times a licence. That is the lifetime valueThe total a customer is expected to pay over the whole time it stays, here the yearly fee divided by the share of customers who leave each year. investors pay for.

There is a price for this. The subscriber takes 40 months to pay what a licence buyer pays on day one, so a subscription company needs more cash early, while its costs of selling and supporting shops arrive up front. That is why a young SaaS company can look worse than a licence seller in its first years and still be the better business.

Say the limitation. The comparison depends on churn. If a quarter of shops left each year instead of a tenth, an average subscriber would stay four years and pay Rs 1.44 lakh, barely above the licence. Retention is the single number that decides whether the subscription is worth more, which is why investors ask for it before almost anything else.

Where candidates lose it

The common loss is answering with jargon, recurring revenue, ARR, multiples, to a question that asked for plain words. The interviewer is testing whether you understand the idea well enough to explain it without them.

The second is claiming subscriptions always earn more. Over five years here they earn less in total; the advantage is the paying base left at the end, and it holds only if churn stays low.

What the interviewer asks next

  • What churn rate makes a subscriber worth exactly the same as a licence?
  • Silaivik offers the licence with a 20% yearly maintenance fee. How does the comparison change?
  • Why might a tailoring shop owner prefer the licence even if it costs more over time?

Asked at Insight Partners, Generalist, New York, 2019 (Wall Street Oasis): the second is with a partner. Most difficult: Explain SaaS to your grandman

← Case 033Modeling test and write-up: build a five-year revenue model for Nukkadvik Stores, a convenience chain adding 60 stores a year, then work out a growth investor's MOIC and IRR at 20x year-five EBITDA.Case 035 →Which of our investments is your least favourite? Korvanta Ventures Fund I holds five companies with very different problems. Rank them on the numbers, pick one, and phrase it for a partner who may have sourced it.

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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