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005

Case 005Relative valuationCore

Build a comps valuation for Tanvika Pharma from five peers trading between 18x and 42x earnings. Which peers do you keep, median or mean, and is a premium justified for Tanvika's higher US exposure?

1The situation

Tanvika Pharma makes generic medicines; 45% of its revenue comes from the US, mostly hard-to-make injectables with few competitors. Its earnings are expected to grow 18% a year, and next year's EPS is Rs 40. Your five listed peers trade on next year's earnings as follows.

Peer A at 18x, but a third of its earnings next year come from a one-time exclusivity period on a US launch. Peer B at 23x, branded generics with 15% US exposure. Peer C at 26x, generics with 25% US. Peer D at 29x, generics with 30% US. Peer E at 42x, which earns most of its profit from contract manufacturing for other drug companies. The peer set grows earnings about 13% a year.

2Your task

Which peers stay in the set, which average do you use, what multiple does Tanvika get, and why?

Quick check

What should you do with Peer A's 18x?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Keep A restated, B, C and D; drop E; use the median of about 26.5x, and give Tanvika a premium of about 10%, roughly 29x. Peer A's one-off gain hides a normal 27x multiple, and Peer E is a contract manufacturer. Tanvika's faster growth argues for up to 37x, but heavy reliance on US plants argues for caution. At 29.2x, EPS of Rs 40 implies about Rs 1,166 a share.

Step 1Which peers belong in the set?

When you price a flat by looking at nearby sales, you leave out the penthouse and the one sold in a family distress sale, not because they are high or low but because they are different. A peer stays if its business is comparable and its earnings are normal; a peer with a comparable business but distorted earnings is restated, not dropped. Peer A's 18x is low only because a one-time exclusivity gain inflates next year's earnings; remove the third that will not recur and its multiple is about 27x. Peer E's 42x reflects a contract manufacturing business with different growth and risk, so it goes.

The peer set is the valuation: defend every dot you keep15x20x25x30x35x40x45xA 18xone-off gain removedE 42xdifferent businessBCA adj. 27xDClean median 26.5xRaw mean 27.6x, pulled up by ETanvika range36.7x full growth credit29.2x chosen
After restating Peer A to about 27x and dropping Peer E as a different business, the clean peer set of four has a median of 26.5x, while the raw mean of all five, 27.6x, is pulled up by Peer E; Tanvika's range runs from 26.5x to 36.7x.
Step 2Median or mean?

Use the median, and say why. With five or six peers, one outlier moves the mean a lot and the median hardly at all. The raw mean of all five is 27.6x because Peer E drags it up; the raw median is 26x. On the clean set the two nearly agree, 26.5x and 26.25x, which is itself a sign the set is now sensible. When mean and median disagree by more than a turn or two, the peer set, not the average, needs work.

PeerReported P/EDecisionP/E used
Peer A18.0xKeep, strip the one-off third of earnings27.0x
Peer B23.0xKeep23.0x
Peer C26.0xKeep26.0x
Peer D29.0xKeep29.0x
Peer E42.0xDrop, contract manufacturing is a different businessexcluded
Median26.0x raw26.5x
Restating Peer A and dropping Peer E gives a clean four-peer median of 26.5x against a raw five-peer median of 26x and a raw mean of 27.6x.
Step 3Does higher US exposure earn Tanvika a premium?

Exposure alone does not; what the US business earns does. Plain US generics face steady price erosion, which would argue for a discount. Tanvika's US revenue is hard-to-make injectables with few competitors, which is why it grows at 18% against the peers' 13%. Giving full credit for growth, a PEGP/E divided by the expected growth rate. Used to compare multiples of companies growing at different speeds.-style scaling of 26.5x by 18 over 13 gives 36.7x; that is the ceiling, not the answer. The offset is concentration: if one US plant supplies most of that revenue, a single failed regulatory inspection can stop it. A 10% premium, about 29.2x, credits part of the growth and keeps a haircut for the plant risk. At EPS of Rs 40 that is about Rs 1,166 a share, against Rs 1,060 at the plain median.

The limitation to say out loud: comps tell you what the market pays for similar businesses today, not whether the market is right. If the whole sector is expensive, comps will say Tanvika is fairly priced at an expensive level. Pair it with a discounted cash flow before taking a view.

Where candidates lose it

Candidates drop the highest and lowest multiples mechanically. That throws away Peer A, a real peer with fixable earnings, for the wrong reason, and keeps the logic invisible. Every inclusion and exclusion needs a business reason.

The second loss is asserting a premium because Tanvika sells more in the US. The interviewer will ask why US exposure deserves more, and the only defensible answer is growth and returns, net of the concentration risk.

What the interviewer asks next

  • Tanvika's biggest US plant receives a warning letter. What happens to the multiple you apply?
  • Would you use EV/EBITDA instead of P/E for this set, and why?
  • Peer D is being acquired at a premium. Do you keep its multiple?
← Case 004Value Kavindra Group, which owns a cement business, a chemicals business and a 40% stake in a listed company, on a sum of the parts, and explain the holding discount.Case 006 →Zenvora Broking earns 60% of its revenue from equity derivatives. New rules cut derivative volumes by 30%. With 70% of costs fixed, what happens to revenue and profit?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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