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084

Case 084ValuationCore

A fire and safety equipment maker has no direct listed peer. Using three adjacent peer sets with different growth and margins, build a comps set and a defensible EV/EBITDA multiple.

NomuraSan Francisco · 2026

1The situation

Agnirakshak Safety Systems, an invented Indian maker of fire detection panels, sprinklers and industrial safety gear, earns EBITDA of Rs 80 crore at a 16% margin and is growing revenue 18% a year. No listed Indian company does the same thing.

Three adjacent sets trade as follows. Indian electrical equipment makers: 18x EV/EBITDA, 15% growth, 12% margin. Indian security services firms: 12x, 10% growth, 8% margin. Overseas industrial safety product makers: 25x, 12% growth, 22% margin. A client is weighing a minority stake and asks you for a multiple it can defend.

2Your task

Which peers would you use and how would you weight them, what multiple and value do you reach, and what are the limits of the answer?

Quick check

Which peer set deserves the least weight?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

A defensible multiple is about 20x EBITDA, roughly Rs 1,600 crore, within a range of about 19.6x to 21.6x. Weight Indian electrical equipment most, overseas safety products next and security services least, which gives 19.55x at a blended growth of 13.2%. Agnirakshak grows faster, and the Indian sets price about 1.2x per point of growth, pointing to 21.6x. Settle near the middle, because its small size and lack of a listing argue against the top.

Step 1How do you choose peers when no twin exists?

Think of pricing a flat in a building that has never had a sale. You look at similar flats in the same area, flats of the same type in a pricier city, and anything else nearby, then decide how much each tells you. Rank each set by how much of Agnirakshak's economics it shares: what it sells, how it makes money, and which market prices it. Electrical equipment shares the manufacturing model and the Indian market. Overseas safety products share the product but not the market or scale. Security services shares only the customer. The weights 50%, 35% and 15% follow from that ranking.

Peer setEV/EBITDAGrowthMarginWhat it sharesWeight
Electrical equipment, India18x15%12%Manufacturing model, Indian market50%
Overseas safety products25x12%22%Product and end use35%
Security services, India12x10%8%Customer only15%
Weighted19.55x13.2%14.9%100%
Weighting the three adjacent sets by similarity gives a blended 19.55x at 13.2% growth and a 14.9% margin, against Agnirakshak's 18% growth and 16% margin.
Step 2How do you adjust for growth and margin?

The blend describes a business growing 13.2% at a 14.9% margin; Agnirakshak grows 18% at 16%. Notice that both Indian sets trade at the same 1.2x per point of growth, 18 over 15 and 12 over 10, which gives you a market-implied price for growth. At 18% growth that line points to 21.6x. The overseas set sits well above the line because its 22% margin turns more of each rupee of growth into cash. Agnirakshak's 16% margin sits between the Indian and overseas sets, so it deserves no penalty against the line.

No twin, three cousins: place Agnirakshak between them12x16x20x24x8%10%12%14%16%18%20%Revenue growthEV / EBITDA1.2x per point of growthSecurity services, India8% margin, weight 15%Electrical equipment, India12% margin, weight 50%Overseas safety products22% margin, weight 35%Agnirakshak, 20xrange 19.6x to 21.6x
Both Indian peer sets sit on a line of 1.2x EV/EBITDA per point of growth, which points to 21.6x at Agnirakshak's 18%, while the similarity-weighted blend gives 19.6x; Agnirakshak is placed at 20x inside that range.
Step 3Where do you land, and why not higher?

The two methods bracket the answer: 19.6x from similarity weights and 21.6x from the growth line. Land near 20x, Rs 1,600 crore of enterprise value, and say why you shade below the growth line. Agnirakshak's EBITDA is Rs 80 crore, small next to listed peers, so its growth is less proven and a single lost contract matters more. A minority stake also cannot force a sale or a listing. Each of those is a reason for a discount, and the range of Rs 1,564 crore to Rs 1,728 crore shows how far the answer can move.

One tempting shortcut is worth naming. A regression of multiple on growth and margin through the three sets fits perfectly, because three points and two variables leave no error, and it says 23.0x. A perfect fit on three points is a coincidence of arithmetic, not evidence. Use it as a sense check at most. The interviewer is listening for reasoning about which businesses resemble Agnirakshak, not for a precise number.

Where candidates lose it

Candidates average the three multiples, 18, 12 and 25, get 18.3x and move on. An equal-weighted average treats a guarding company as just as informative as a sprinkler maker and ignores that Agnirakshak grows faster than all three.

The other loss is taking the overseas 25x because it is the closest product match. That multiple prices a larger, higher-margin business in a different market; using it unadjusted overvalues Agnirakshak.

What the interviewer asks next

  • Which listed private market transactions would you look for to cross-check this?
  • Agnirakshak's growth slows to 12%. Where would the multiple move?
  • How would you adjust the overseas multiple for country and size differences?
  • Would you prefer EV/EBITDA or EV/sales for this company, and why?

Asked at Nomura, Investment Banking, San Francisco, 2026 (Wall Street Oasis): Case study by far (find comparable companies to a niche industry vertical they cover)

← Case 083A cyclical metals company must meet a trough interest cover test and a normal-year leverage test. How much debt can it carry, and which test binds?Case 085 →You are long a defence electronics stock that has no close listed peer. Given its betas, R-squared and residual volatility, how would you hedge it, how large is the hedge, and what risk is left?

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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