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086

Case 086Portfolio management and follow-onsCore

Your portfolio company Billvik Invoicing (ARR Rs 30 crore, growth 55%, CAC payback 15 months, Rs 1,500 a month) faces three competitors at ARR Rs 80, 22 and 12 crore, growth 30%, 90% and 120%, payback 11, 24 and 30 months, and price Rs 1,200, 1,900 and 900. Where does Billvik win, where is it exposed, and what should the board push on?

Bessemer Venture PartnersNew York · 2022

1The situation

Your fund led the Series A in Billvik Invoicing, which sells invoicing and collections software to small businesses at Rs 1,500 a month. It has Rs 30 crore of ARR, grew 55% last year and recovers its customer acquisition cost (CAC) in 15 months of gross profit. A board meeting is next week and the partner wants a view on the competition.

Three rivals matter. Rival A is the scale player: Rs 80 crore ARR, growing 30%, 11-month payback, Rs 1,200 a month. Rival B sells upmarket: Rs 22 crore, growing 90%, 24-month payback, Rs 1,900 a month. Rival C is the low-price entrant: Rs 12 crore, growing 120%, 30-month payback, Rs 900 a month. Assume the four have similar gross margins.

2Your task

Place Billvik against the three, say where it wins and where it is exposed, and give the board two or three things to push on.

Quick check

Which rival is the biggest threat to Billvik over the next two years?

Worked solution

Try it on paper, then open one step at a time.

30-second answerThe answer to give first

Billvik wins on balance: second-best payback at solid growth. Its exposure is Rival C, which grows 120% at a 40% lower price. Rival C spends about Rs 2.50 to win each rupee of ARR against Billvik's Rs 1.25, so its growth is bought and depends on funding. The board should push for win and loss data against Rival C, a test of a cheaper tier, and a payback ceiling so Billvik does not chase Rival C's growth at Rival C's cost.

Step 1How should you lay the four companies out?

If you run one of four tea stalls on a street, you watch two things about each rival: how fast its queue is growing and how much it spends to get people into the queue. For software companies those are growth and CAC payback, and putting them on one chart with size as the bubble shows who is buying growth and who is earning it. Price is the third lens: it tells you which customers each rival is aiming at. The answer to a portfolio and competitors question should land on a position, an exposure and an action, not a feature list.

Billvik sits in the efficient middle; the cheapest rival grows fastestfast and efficientbubble area = ARR0%40%80%120%1015202530CAC payback, months (further right is costlier growth)Billvik: Rs 30 cr, Rs 1,500/moRival A: Rs 80 cr, Rs 1,200/moRival B: Rs 22 cr, Rs 1,900/moRival C: Rs 12 cr, Rs 900/mo
Billvik sits between Rival A's slow, efficient scale and the two fast but costly rivals, and the smallest bubble, Rival C at Rs 900 a month, grows fastest of all at the highest acquisition cost.
Step 2What does each rival's growth cost?

Payback in months tells you how many months of a customer's gross profit it takes to recover the cost of winning them. At similar gross margins, payback divided by 12 is roughly the rupees of sales and marketing spent per rupee of new ARR: Rival A spends about Rs 0.92, Billvik Rs 1.25, Rival B Rs 2.00 and Rival C Rs 2.50. Rival C added about Rs 6.5 crore of ARR last year and spent around Rs 16 crore to do it; Billvik added Rs 10.6 crore for about Rs 13 crore.

What each rupee of new ARR costs to win, from payback monthsRival A (11 months)Rs 0.92Billvik (15 months)Rs 1.25Rival B (24 months)Rs 2.00Rival C (30 months)Rs 2.50Spend per rupee of new ARR = payback months / 12, at similar gross margins
Reading payback as spend per rupee of new ARR, Rival C pays Rs 2.50 for every rupee it adds, twice Billvik's Rs 1.25, so its 120% growth is bought and depends on its next funding round.
CompanyARR, Rs croreGrowthPayback, monthsPrice a monthCustomers todayCustomers next year at current growth
Billvik3055%15Rs 1,50016,66725,833
Rival A8030%11Rs 1,20055,55672,222
Rival B2290%24Rs 1,9009,64918,333
Rival C12120%30Rs 90011,11124,444
Customer counts are ARR divided by twelve months of price, and at current growth Rival C's 24,444 customers next year would nearly match Billvik's 25,833.
Step 3Where does Billvik win, and where is it exposed?

Billvik wins in the middle. It grows almost twice as fast as Rival A and acquires customers at less than two-thirds of Rival B's cost. Its exposure is the low end: Rival C charges 40% less, already has about 11,111 customers against Billvik's 16,667, and at today's growth rates would match Billvik's customer count next year and its ARR in about 2.6 years. Those rates will not hold, because a 30-month payback needs a lot of capital. But if Rival C raises a large round, it can keep buying the small-business customers Billvik also targets, and price pressure would hit Billvik's growth before it hit its margin.

Step 4What should the board push on?

Three things. First, win and loss data against Rival C, by deal size: if Billvik is losing small accounts to a cheaper product, the board needs to know before it shows up in growth. Second, a controlled test of a cheaper tier with fewer features, watching whether it wins new customers or just moves existing ones down. Third, a payback ceiling, for example no channel above 20 months, so management does not answer Rival C by matching its spending. The limit of this read is that payback and growth are trailing numbers from each company's own reporting; the board should ask how Billvik's team measured the rivals' figures before acting on them.

Where candidates lose it

Candidates name Rival A as the threat because it is the biggest. Size is the wrong lens: Rival A is slowing to 30%, while the small rival at the lowest price is growing fastest into Billvik's customers.

The second miss is admiring Rival C's 120% growth without pricing it. At a 30-month payback it spends about Rs 2.50 per rupee of new ARR, so the right board question is how long its funding lasts, not how to copy its growth.

What the interviewer asks next

  • Rival C announces a Rs 150 crore round. What changes in your board advice?
  • Billvik's NRR is 108% and Rival A's is 120%. How does that change the picture?
  • How would you get reliable payback figures for private competitors?
  • Should Billvik cut its price to Rs 1,200? What would you need to see first?

Asked at Bessemer Venture Partners, Generalist, New York, 2022 (Wall Street Oasis): Questions about their portfolio companies. Questions about competitors

← Case 085Safarvik Travel has a Rs 300 crore acquisition offer. Drag-along needs 60% of the preferred plus a majority of the founders. Series A holds 25% with a Rs 40 crore 1x preference, Series B 30% with Rs 160 crore, and two founders hold 25% and 20%. Who can block, and what does each party receive?Case 087 →What would you look for in a company you want to invest in? Screen Beejvik Agri, Mitravik HR and Jalvik Water against a five-point checklist and say which goes to the partner meeting.

Company names and figures are illustrative.

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