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Risk Management Program · CoreTrack
1Risk, Treasury & Financial Control
iRisk Foundations
Risk Appetite, Tolerance, Capacity…The Risk Taxonomy and UniverseRisk Register vs Risk MatrixStress TestingScenario Analysis vs Stress TestingImpact and LikelihoodLikelihoodThe Risk EventRisk Assessment
iiEnterprise Risk Management
Enterprise Risk ManagementThe Four Risk TreatmentsRisk CultureRisk MaturityRisk Monitoring
iiiRisk Governance
Risk GovernanceHow to set a…The Risk PolicyThe Risk OwnerThe Risk Committee and Its CharterThe Risk Limit FrameworkRisk EscalationHow to set a…
ivCredit and Counterparty Risk
Collateral AgreementsCollateral vs NettingProbability of DefaultExposureCounterparty ExposureConcentration Risk vs Wrong Way RiskCounterparty Risk vs Credit RiskHow to assess Counterparty ExposureHow to assess Concentration Risk
vMarket Risk
Market RiskSensitivity MeasuresThe Hedging PolicyInterest Rate Risk in the Banking BookIRRBB vs Market RiskExpected ShortfallEconomic Value of EquityVaR BacktestingOpen PositionValue at RiskValue at Risk and Expected ShortfallEconomic Value SensitivityFX ExposureValue at Risk vs Expected ShortfallEarnings at Risk vs…FX Transaction Risk vs…How to measure Interest…How to measure Foreign…
viLiquidity Risk
Liquidity Stress TestingLiquidity Gap vs Liquidity BufferMaturity MismatchThe Debt Maturity ProfileFunding ConcentrationSurvival HorizonThe Contingency Funding PlanNet Stable Funding RatioLiquidity Risk vs Funding RiskLiquidity Coverage RatioLiquidity Gap and BufferHow to run a Liquidity Gap Analysis
viiOperational Risk
Operational LossThe Loss EventRisk and Control Self AssessmentException ManagementInformation Security as a…Segregation of DutiesIssue ManagementThe Near MissRoot Cause Analysis in RiskThe Fraud TriangleCyber Risk vs Third Party RiskHow to run a…How to assess Third…
viiiRisk Reporting, Data and Model Risk
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Corporate TreasuryAsset Liability ManagementIntragroup FundingThe Treasury PolicyThe Treasury Management SystemThe Cash ForecastCash Pooling and ConcentrationHow to build a Cash Forecast
xFinancial Controls and Assurance
Control AssuranceThe Control LifecycleThe Assurance MapThe Audit FindingIssue RemediationInternal Financial ControlsControl Design vs Control EffectivenessHow to map Internal Financial ControlsHow to test Control…Control DeficiencyMaterial Weakness
xiOperational Resilience
Operational ResilienceBusiness Continuity and Disaster RecoveryBusiness Continuity vs Operational…Crisis ManagementDisaster RecoveryIncident Management

Segregation of Duties: The Oldest Control and Why It Still Works

Segregation of duties separates tasks that let one person both create something and confirm it. The arrangement works without asking anybody to be trustworthy: two people have to be wrong together before anything gets through. At Vindhya Commercial Bank Limited, an invented bank, one officer could both check trade finance documents and release the instrument. The gap produced incident I13, the largest net loss of the year.

Almost every control asks somebody to do something well. Check the figure. Read the clause. Follow the procedure. Notice the exception. Each of those is a request made of a person, and a request made of a person is answered differently on a quiet Tuesday and on the last afternoon of a quarter when three things are late. Segregation of duties is built the other way round. Rather than asking anybody to be careful, or honest, or awake, the control arranges the work so that one person acting alone cannot complete the thing at all. The change is small in wording and enormous in what happens when the day goes badly.

Separation is also the oldest control there is. Long before anybody wrote the word risk down, a merchant who kept the keys to the strongroom made sure somebody else kept the ledger of what was inside it. The arrangement has survived every change in technology since. A control that old is unusual enough to be worth treating on its own. The subject divides into five parts: what the control separates; which pairs of tasks are incompatible and why; what separation costs; what is done where the separation genuinely cannot be made; and the two things the control can never reach no matter how carefully it is drawn.

What does segregation of duties actually separate?

The mechanism is identical at home and the stakes there are small enough to see clearly, so start at home. Suppose one person in a household does the shopping, keeps the receipts, and is also the person who checks the receipts against the bank statement at the end of the month. Nobody in that arrangement is doing anything wrong. But notice what the monthly check is actually worth. If a receipt was written down as Rs 900/- when it was Rs 1,900/-, the person checking is the person who wrote it, and they will read it the same way the second time for exactly the same reason they read it that way the first time. The check happens. It just cannot find anything.

Now hand the statement to somebody else in the household who did none of the shopping. Nothing about the shopping has changed and no new effort has been added, beyond the few minutes of a second reading. But the check has stopped being a repeat of a judgement already made and has become a genuinely new one. Separation adds not more checking but a second and independent judgement, and the gap between those two things is the whole subject.

Segregation of dutiesA control separating tasks so that no one person can both create something and confirm it. holds two acts apart. The first act is creating something: raising an instruction, writing an entry, cutting a payment, issuing an instrument, changing a rate. The second act is confirming it: saying that the entry, the payment or the instrument is right and may proceed. Creating and confirming are done all day long in every institution, and the control is one rule about them. The two acts may not sit in the same pair of hands.

The reason is not the obvious one, so read it slowly. The reason is not that the person who creates something is likely to be dishonest. Most of the time they are not, and the control would be worth having in an institution where nobody ever was. The reason is that a confirmation given by the author of the thing being confirmed carries no information. The confirmation comes from the same mind, applying the same assumptions, to the same document, a few minutes later. Whatever the first pass accepted, the second pass accepts, and it accepts it for the same reason. A check performed by the person whose work is being checked is not a weak check, it is not a check at all, and treating it as a weak one is how it survives on a control list for years.

THE ROOT PAIR: CREATING SOMETHING AND CONFIRMING IT Both arrangements contain the same two acts. Only one of them produces a second judgement. ONE PAIR OF HANDS: THE ARRANGEMENT THAT FAILS TWO PAIRS OF HANDS: THE ARRANGEMENT THAT HOLDS THE SAME PERSON CREATES THE THING CONFIRMS THE THING one judgement, applied twice the confirmation adds no information PERSON A PERSON B CREATES THE THING CONFIRMS, AND CAN REFUSE two judgements, and the second one is new both have to be wrong before anything proceeds CREATE AND CONFIRM IS THE ROOT PAIR. EVERY OTHER INCOMPATIBLE PAIR IS A VERSION OF IT.
Both arrangements contain the identical two acts, so nothing has been added on the right except a second person, and that alone turns a repeated judgement into a new one that is able to say no.
Try it out

One person raises a payment instruction and the same person reviews it before release. What is wrong with that review?

Derivatives Foundation Bootcamp — Fin Maverick

Which pairs of tasks are incompatible, and why those four?

Institutions usually write this control down as a list of pairs that must never sit together. Four of them do most of the work, and they look like four unrelated rules until they are set beside each other, where they turn out to be one rule wearing four coats.

The first pair is initiate and approve. Somebody raises a payment, a limit increase, a new supplier, a rate change. Somebody else says yes. If the person raising it is also the person approving it, the approval step is a formality that consumes time and stops nothing. Initiate and approve is the pair most people already know, and the other three are usually explained by it.

The second pair is execute and reconcile. Somebody sends the instruction; somebody else compares the record afterwards against an independent source and finds the differences. ReconciliationComparing a record against an independent source, which is incompatible with having executed the thing being reconciled. is where an error that got past the first two people is caught, and it only catches anything if the person doing it did not do the thing being reconciled. Somebody reconciling their own work is reading their own homework, and they will find the differences they already expected to find.

The third pair is holding an asset and recording it. The person with the keys to the cash, the stock, the securities or the stamped forms must not also be the person who writes down how much is there. Custody against record is the oldest version of the rule and the easiest to feel. If the keys and the ledger are in one pair of hands, the ledger says whatever the holder needs it to say, and there is no arithmetic anywhere in the institution that can contradict it. CustodyHolding an asset, which is incompatible with recording what is held. and record keeping have to be two jobs so that the count can be checked against the book by somebody who does neither.

The fourth pair is changing a system and operating it. Somebody writes the change; somebody else releases it into the place where the real money moves. Change against operate is the modern version, and institutions get it wrong most often. The person who understands the change best is also the fastest person to put it in. Speed is the argument for merging them, and speed is exactly what makes the merge dangerous: a change nobody else looked at reaches live in an afternoon.

Now put the four beside each other. Initiate and approve is creating a request and confirming it. Execute and reconcile is creating a movement and confirming it landed correctly. Custody and record is creating a holding and confirming what it is. Change and operate is creating an alteration and confirming it is fit to run. All four pairs are the same pair. Every rule in every control list restates one sentence, so the one thing worth carrying away is that the creator may not be the confirmer.

THE FOUR INCOMPATIBLE PAIRS, AND WHAT EACH ONE REDUCES TO Read the right hand column downwards. Four rules that look unrelated turn out to be one rule stated four ways. THE ACT THAT CREATES THE ACT THAT CONFIRMS WHAT BOTH ACTS REDUCE TO PAIR 1 INITIATE raises the payment or the request MUST BE A DIFFERENT PERSON APPROVE says it may proceed, or refuses creating a request, then confirming it PAIR 2 EXECUTE sends the instruction out MUST BE A DIFFERENT PERSON RECONCILE compares it against an outside source creating a movement, then confirming where it landed PAIR 3 TAKE CUSTODY holds the cash, stock or securities MUST BE A DIFFERENT PERSON RECORD writes down what is held creating a holding, then confirming what it is PAIR 4 CHANGE THE SYSTEM writes the alteration MUST BE A DIFFERENT PERSON OPERATE IT releases it where the money moves creating an alteration, then confirming it may run FOUR PAIRS, ONE RULE: THE PERSON WHO CREATES SOMETHING MAY NOT BE THE PERSON WHO CONFIRMS IT
Setting the four pairs in one column shows why nobody needs to memorise them: each row is an act of making something followed by an act of saying it is right, and the rule is that those two acts sit in different hands.
Try it out

Initiate and approve, execute and reconcile, hold an asset and record it, change a system and operate it. What do those four pairs have in common?

Why does it work without anybody having to be trusted?

Here is the property that makes this control unusual, and it is worth stating on its own line before anything else. Most controls are behavioural: they work when a person does something correctly and stop working when the person does not. Segregation of duties is structural: it works because of how the work is arranged, and the arrangement is the same on a good day and a terrible one.

The arrangement buys something worth spelling out. A behavioural control degrades quietly and continuously. The experienced reviewer retires and the new one does not know what a wrong document looks like yet. The queue is long on the last day of the month. A person is going through something at home that nobody at work knows about. None of those things announces itself, and every one of them makes a careful check less careful. Because a structural control never depended on carefulness in the first place, it does not degrade for any of those reasons. The question a structural control asks is not whether somebody will do the right thing, but whether one person is able to complete the transaction alone, and that question has the same answer at nine in the morning and at nine at night.

Needing no trust is the usual description of the control, and the structural property is why. The phrase gets misread as cynicism about people, and it means the opposite. Separation is a design decision that removes the need to make a judgement about anybody. In an institution with two thousand people nobody can know who is under pressure, who is being leaned on, who is about to make an honest mistake with a decimal point. Nobody has to. The work is arranged so that a single wrong judgement, of any origin, does not reach the outside world on its own. Independent checkA review by somebody with no interest in the outcome and the standing to refuse it. is the whole of the mechanism, and the word doing the work in that phrase is independent.

One more consequence, and it is the practical one. Because the control is structural, it can be verified without watching anybody work. Nobody has to sit behind a desk and see whether the check was done properly. The question is a much simpler one: can this task be completed start to finish by one person with one set of permissions? If the answer is yes, the control is absent whatever the procedure says. If the answer is no, the control is present, and the separate question of whether it operates well is what the rest of this guide is about.

WHY A STRUCTURAL CONTROL SURVIVES WHAT BREAKS A BEHAVIOURAL ONE The same five ordinary pressures, put to two kinds of control. DEPENDS ON SOMEBODY DOING SOMETHING WELL DEPENDS ON NOBODY BEING ABLE TO ACT ALONE WHAT THE DAY THROWS AT IT a busy afternoon with three things already late the check gets quick still needs two people the experienced person leaves and is replaced the skill leaves with them the arrangement is unchanged personal pressure nobody in the office knows about the control notices nothing they still cannot act alone the task has run a thousand times without incident attention drifts a second person is still required the person genuinely intends to do it right and it can still be wrong two have to be wrong together Nothing in the right hand column asks anybody to be better at the job. It asks only that the work be arranged so that one person cannot finish it.
Five ordinary pressures are put to both kinds of control, and the right hand column answers the same way to all five because none of its answers depends on how anybody is feeling that afternoon.
Try it out

Why is this control described as one that does not require anybody to be trustworthy?

What does this control actually cost to run?

Presenting a control this old and this effective as free would be dishonest. It is not. Its cost is exactly what it sounds like: two people where one would do, on every instance, for ever. If a task takes four minutes and happens six hundred times a month, adding a two minute second check adds twenty hours of somebody's month. Multiply that across the tasks in an operations function and it is a real number that a real person has to find in a real budget.

There are three other costs, and they are less obvious than the salary one. The first is time in the day: a payment that needs two people can only go out when the second person is at their desk. The four o clock queue in so many places is that cost arriving. The second is the cost of the second person having enough knowledge to be worth asking. A checker who cannot tell a good document from a bad one adds a signature and no judgement. The third is the temptation the first two create. When separation is expensive, the pressure to merge the roles arrives as a sensible-sounding efficiency, and it usually arrives in a month when somebody is short-staffed.

So the question is never whether separation costs something, it is whether the thing being separated is worth two people, and an institution answers that by looking at what one person acting alone could do. A task where a single person can move money to an outside party is worth two people, almost regardless of frequency. A task where the worst outcome is an internal report with a wrong subtotal is probably not. Consequence is what that judgement turns on, and the judgement is made once and written down, rather than made afresh by whoever is on duty.

What happens when the separation genuinely cannot be made?

Sometimes there is no second person. A branch with three staff, one of whom is on leave. A treasury back office of two, one of whom is the person who raises the deals. A system so specialised that exactly one person in the building understands it. An emergency at two in the morning when the second name on the list is unreachable. None of those situations is an excuse; each is an ordinary fact of running an institution, and any account of this control that pretends otherwise is not describing a real place.

The response to that has a name. A compensating controlSomething else done to meet the objective where the separation itself cannot be made. is something else, done deliberately, that meets the same objective by a different route. The important word is objective. The objective of separating custody from record keeping is that somebody who did not handle the asset confirms what is there. The two-person form is one way of meeting it. The two-person form is not the only way, and where it cannot be used, the institution has to say which other way it is using.

Three routes come up again and again. The first is a review from outside the unit: somebody from another branch, another team or the centre does the confirming, unannounced. The second is an authority limit low enough that anything of consequence needs a second person anyway, so the merged role survives only for small items and the objective is met for everything above the line. The third is a complete after-the-fact check: nobody stops the transaction on the day, but every item above a stated size is examined afterwards by an independent person, with the record of what they found kept.

A compensating control differs from an excuse in three ways: it names the route, produces evidence that the route happened, and is reviewed by somebody who could not have authorised the departure in the first place. A line in a register saying that separation is not possible at this branch size, with nothing after it, is not a compensating control. A gap that has been written down is better than a gap nobody knows about, and it is still not in any sense a control.

Where the separation is hardWhyA route that can still meet the objective
A three person branchOne is on leave most weeks, so any two person rule stops the branch workingAn unannounced count by somebody from a neighbouring branch, evidenced by a signed sheet
A two person back officeThe person who raises the deal is the only other person who can confirm itConfirmation from the counterparty direct to a third person who did not deal, plus a daily independent reconciliation
The only specialist for a systemNobody else can judge whether the change is correctA second person releases the change without judging it, and the specialist demonstrates the effect afterwards to an independent reviewer
An emergency out of hoursThe second name is unreachable and the item cannot wait until morningA recorded override with the reason, reviewed the next working day by somebody who cannot authorise one

Four situations that come up in any institution, with a route that meets the same objective by another means. The routes are illustrative and every institution writes its own.

WHAT A COMPENSATING CONTROL LOOKS LIKE WHEN IT IS WRITTEN DOWN PROPERLY An illustrative record for one branch at Vindhya Commercial Bank Limited, invented. Every field is filled in, and the last one is what makes it a control. CONTROL RECORD: A COMPENSATING ROUTE, WRITTEN DOWN THE TASK one person receives the cash, counts it and writes the day book WHY IT CANNOT BE SPLIT the branch has three staff and one of them is on leave most weeks THE OBJECTIVE STILL TO BE MET somebody who did not handle the cash confirms what is there THE ROUTE CHOSEN an unannounced count by a person from a neighbouring branch, twice a month THE EVIDENCE IT HAPPENED a signed count sheet carrying the date and the two figures compared WHO LOOKS AT IT AFTERWARDS a regional manager, who could not have authorised the departure THE SAME SITUATION, WRITTEN THE WAY IT USUALLY IS Separation of duties: not possible at this branch size. Nothing follows it. The objective has not been met by another route, nobody produces evidence, and nobody independent reads it. This is a gap that has been written down.
The upper record meets the same objective by a different route and can be checked by somebody afterwards, while the lower one states a difficulty and stops, which leaves the institution with a recorded absence rather than a control.
Try it out

A branch is too small to split a task between two people. What is the correct response?

Debt Capital Markets Bootcamp — Fin Maverick

What can this control never reach on its own?

Two things defeat separation, and it matters enormously that neither of them is a failure of the control. Both are situations the control was never able to address, and knowing which is which is the difference between fixing something and adding another rule that does nothing.

The first is collusionTwo or more people acting together, which defeats separation by construction rather than by failure.. If the person who creates and the person who confirms are working together, the arrangement is exactly as designed and produces exactly the wrong answer. There are two people. Both did their step. Neither skipped anything. The second pair of eyes belongs to the scheme, so the second judgement is not a second judgement at all, and separation has been defeated by construction rather than by anybody failing at it. The partner does not have to be a colleague. In the worked case here the second party was outside the institution altogether.

The second is management overrideSomebody with enough authority setting the rule aside, which the control cannot prevent and a record can expose.. Somebody with enough standing says to release it anyway, and it is released. Once again nothing has gone wrong with the separation. The rule simply was not binding on that person. No amount of further separating makes it binding: whoever is added to the chain is junior to the person setting the rule aside. Override is uncomfortable because addressing it means telling senior people that a rule applies to them. Discomfort is why the point is so often left as an unwritten understanding.

The answer to both is not more separation, and an institution that responds to either by adding a third signature has misdiagnosed what happened. Collusion is addressed by making the second check genuinely rather than nominally independent: the checker reports somewhere else, is rotated, has no share in the outcome, and is able to refuse without it costing them anything. Override is addressed by making the departure visible: every one recorded with its reason, read afterwards by somebody who could not have authorised it, and the small repeated ones counted rather than waved through. A pattern of small departures is the shape a large one grows out of.

THE TWO THINGS SEPARATION CANNOT REACH, AND NEITHER IS A FAILURE OF THE CONTROL In both panels the two person arrangement is present and working exactly as drawn. DEFEAT ONE TWO PEOPLE ACTING TOGETHER PERSON A creates PERSON B confirms RELEASED ACTING TOGETHER The second pair of eyes belongs to the scheme, so the arrangement is intact and the check is not. The answer is a check that is genuinely independent. DEFEAT TWO SOMEBODY SENIOR ENOUGH TO SET IT ASIDE PERSON A creates PERSON B stepped past RELEASED ENOUGH AUTHORITY TO SAY YES The rule was never binding on this person, so separating the work further changes nothing. The answer is every departure recorded and read back. NEITHER DEFEAT IS FIXED BY SEPARATING FURTHER. One needs genuine independence; the other needs departures recorded, read by somebody who cannot authorise one, and small ones counted.
Neither panel shows a control that broke, which is the point: the two person arrangement is intact in both, and adding a third signature to either would change nothing at all about the outcome.
Try it out

Two people acting together let something through. What is the right response?

Investment Banking Analyst Bootcamp — Fin Maverick

What does it look like when the separation is missing?

Everything above is design. Vindhya Commercial Bank Limited recorded thirteen operational loss incidents over its twelve numbered months. The largest of them by net cost is incident I13, discovered in month 8, and the whole of it grew inside a gap in this one control.

A trade finance officer and a party outside the bank issued 9 letters of credit against forged shipping documents over a span of fourteen months ending in month 8. A letter of credit and how it pays belong to the trade finance material; on this desk it was simply the instrument that was issued. The bank stopped losing money when a beneficiary bank presented a claim and somebody went looking. Gross loss Rs 22.4 crore, recovered Rs 7.0 crore, net loss Rs 15.4 crore. Incident I13 alone is 1 of the 13 recorded, being 7.7 per cent of the count, and Rs 15.4 crore of the Rs 43.8 crore of net loss for the year, being 35.2 per cent of the value.

The opening was exactly one thing: the same person could both check the shipping documents and release the instrument. Read those two acts against the first pair on the list above and the shape is immediate. Checking the documents is confirming. Releasing the instrument is acting on the confirmation. When one pair of hands holds both, the confirmation is being given by the person whose own work is being confirmed, and it therefore carries no information at all. It is not a weaker check. It is not a check. The same judgement was applied twice, so whatever the first pass was willing to accept, the second pass accepted by construction.

The absence matters more than it sounds. A forgery needs one thing in order to work. A forged shipping document has to survive one specific moment: somebody looking at it who is not the person who wants it to pass. Remove that moment and the document does not have to be a good forgery. It has to be a document. The maker and checkerThe two roles a segregated task splits into, where the checker must be able to refuse. arrangement exists precisely so that the document meets a pair of eyes with no interest in it going through, and on this desk, in this bank, that pair of eyes did not exist.

The span itself says something. Fourteen months. The gap was not one bad afternoon. The arrangement was stable enough that 9 separate instruments went out over more than a year, and nothing inside the process itself objected on any of those occasions. The bank did not find it. A beneficiary bank found it, from the outside, at the point where the money was actually asked for. An institution that has to be told by a counterparty is an institution that had no internal moment where the thing could be caught, and that absent moment is what this control exists to create.

INCIDENT I13, VINDHYA COMMERCIAL BANK LIMITED, INVENTED. RS CRORE. HOW LONG IT RAN FOURTEEN MONTHS starts fourteen months before month 8 month 8: a beneficiary bank claims, and it is found WHAT WENT OUT IN THAT SPAN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 letters of credit. The record locks the count and the span, and not the date of each one, so these are not placed on the line above. WHAT IT COST RECOVERED 7.0 NET LOSS 15.4 gross 22.4 is the full width of the bar AGAINST THE YEAR 15.4 the other twelve incidents together, 28.4 net loss for the year 43.8, of which this one incident is 35.2 per cent
One gap in one control produced more than a third of the invented bank's net operational loss for the whole year, and it stayed open long enough for nine separate instruments to go out.

How much difference does an independent second pair of eyes actually make?

One question makes this control feel worth its cost, and the question is about repetition rather than about any single occasion. Incident I13 was not one document set. It was 9 of them, presented one after another over fourteen months. A scheme built that way has a property its designer would rather it did not have: it must survive every single occasion. Getting through eight times and being stopped on the ninth is not a partial success. It is discovery.

So set up the arithmetic, and be clear at the outset that this is the reader's own dial and not a measurement anybody at this bank ever made. Suppose a share k of trade finance document sets goes to a second, independent person before release, chosen without the officer knowing which. Suppose an independent look at a forged set catches it. Then a single set slips past unchecked with probability one less k, and all 9 sets slip past with that probability raised to the ninth power. The model has nothing else in it. A model whose assumptions are hidden is a model that flatters itself, so both of the two assumptions inside this one are printed beside the control below.

The striking thing is not the arithmetic, it is the shape: the chance of the whole scheme surviving falls far faster than the share of the work rises. At one document set in ten, a very light touch by any measure, the chance that all 9 got through is 38.7 per cent. At one in four it is 7.5 per cent. Somewhere around 28.3 per cent of sets, the chance of the whole thing surviving falls below 5 per cent, and by 40.1 per cent it is under 1 per cent. At one in two it is 0.2 per cent. A second person who looks at a quarter of the traffic is not providing a quarter of a control.

Share of document sets independently checkedChance all 9 sets reach releaseWhat that point is
0 per cent100.0 per centWhat this invented bank actually had, and all 9 were released
10 per cent38.7 per centA very light touch and already better than a coin toss
25 per cent7.5 per centOne set in four
28.3 per cent5.0 per centCrossing one, where the whole scheme is discovered nineteen times out of twenty
40.1 per cent1.0 per centCrossing two
50 per cent0.2 per centOne set in two
100 per centnilThe first set is stopped, so nothing reaches release at all

Seven solved points on one less k raised to the ninth power, for the 9 document sets in incident I13 at Vindhya Commercial Bank Limited. The result is stated as document sets reaching release and never as rupees avoided. Educational illustration.

Two cautions come before the arithmetic is used. The first is that the 9 sets are treated here as independent draws and they were not. One person produced all 9, so a checker who had seen the pattern once might well recognise it the next time. Recognition pushes the real chance of survival lower than the curve says. Something very close to that actually happened at this bank: in month 7, a trade finance document set carrying the same forgery pattern was refused by a checker, recorded as a routine refusal, and never linked to anything. Incident I13 surfaced one month later. The second caution is about the readout. The panel below reports document sets reaching release, and never rupees avoided.

Try it out

Nine document sets went out over fourteen months. Before the control below is moved: if one set in four had been independently checked, what is the chance all 9 still got through?

Play with it

Move the second pair of eyes

One dial: the share of trade finance document sets that go to an independent second person before release. One consequence: the chance that all 9 sets in incident I13 reach release anyway. The default is 0 per cent. At this bank the same officer could both check the documents and release the instrument, so no set went to anybody else.

Sets independently checked
0%
Chance all 9 reach release
100.0%
Expected sets seen by a checker
0.0 of 9

With 0 per cent of document sets independently checked, the chance all 9 reach release is 100.0 per cent.

Educational illustration. Two assumptions are on screen and both matter. The 9 sets are treated as independent draws and they are not: one person produced all 9, and a checker who saw the pattern once might recognise the next. Each independent check is assumed to catch the forgery, and a checker in this bank actually did so in month 7. The readout counts document sets reaching release, never rupees avoided. For scale only: the net loss of Rs 15.4 crore across 9 instruments is Rs 1.71 crore each, and that figure is a scale and is never multiplied into a loss that would have been prevented.

Try it out

Why does the panel above report document sets reaching release rather than rupees saved?

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What does it look like when the separation works?

The same twelve months at the same invented bank carry the other case, and it is the more useful of the two because almost nobody ever gets to see it. In month 2, a settlement instruction was prepared for release. The instruction was a duplicate: the same payment, for Rs 68 crore, going out a second time. A second named person looked at it before it left, saw that it was a repeat, and refused to release it. Nothing left the bank. Nobody was compensated. There was no incident to record and no money column to fill in. The stopped instruction sits in the bank's near miss register as N1 and appears nowhere else at all.

The refusal is the four eyes checkA requirement that a second named person reviews and releases what a first person has prepared. doing exactly the job it was designed for, and it is worth saying plainly that the person who refused did the job correctly. A careless institution is not what the near miss shows. The near miss shows a control with an unmeasured failure rate, and the rate is known to be neither zero nor one because the very same bank has the other half of the pair in the same month.

Ten days before that refusal, a settlement instruction had been sent twice and Rs 42 crore had left the bank twice. The duplicate that got out is incident I2, category 7 in the bank's loss record, gross Rs 42.0 crore, recovered Rs 41.4 crore, net Rs 0.6 crore. On the gross basis it is the largest loss of the whole year. Almost all of it came back. A duplicate payment is money sitting in somebody else's account rather than money spent, and somebody rang them up. But the cause of I2 and the cause of N1 are the same cause: an instruction that should have gone once, prepared to go twice.

So the biggest single thing this control did in the entire year is the one thing that appears in none of the bank's numbers. N1 stopped Rs 68 crore. I2 let Rs 42.0 crore go. The success was 1.6 times the size of the failure, and the success cost nothing, produced no entry, and would be invisible to anybody reading the loss record alone. A near miss register exists for exactly that reason: it is the only place where a control that worked leaves a trace of the size of what it prevented.

ONE CAUSE, TWO OUTCOMES, TEN DAYS APART. VINDHYA COMMERCIAL BANK LIMITED, INVENTED. RS CRORE. Both bars are drawn on one scale, so their lengths may be compared directly. 68 STOPPED BEFORE RELEASE NEAR MISS N1 month 2, refused In the near miss register. In no gross column, no net column and no published total. 42.0 GROSS, RELEASED INCIDENT I2 month 2, released Largest gross loss of the year. Net 0.6 after 41.4 recovered. THE SUCCESS WAS 1.6 TIMES THE SIZE OF THE FAILURE: 68 AGAINST 42.0. Same cause, same control, ten days apart, and only the failure reaches a number the bank publishes.
Set on one scale, the thing the control stopped is visibly larger than the thing it let through, and only the smaller of the two appears anywhere in the money.
Try it out

Of these two settlement events, which one appears in the bank's money totals, and what follows from that?

Where this actually goes wrong: a control that operates most of the time

Set side by side, the two settlement events produce something uncomfortable. The same four eyes check existed on both occasions. In month 2 it did not stop Rs 42.0 crore going out twice. Ten days later it stopped Rs 68 crore. Nothing in the record says that anybody was careless on the earlier occasion: the checker on the later occasion did the job correctly, and the design question is not who missed what.

The design question is that a control described as present is a control operating at a failure rate nobody has measured. Present and effective are two different claims, and this bank has one success and one failure ten days apart and no measurement at all of the rate between them. Everything the institution knows about how often the check works, it knows from two data points that happen to have landed in the same month.

Two consequences follow and both matter more than they look. The first is that the record is asymmetric. The failure booked Rs 42.0 crore of gross loss and sits in the loss register. The success booked nothing and sits only in the near miss register. An institution that reads its loss record and stops there learns that this control failed and never learns that it also worked. Every conversation about the control quietly becomes a conversation about a failure.

The second is that the invisible one was the bigger one. Rs 68 crore against Rs 42.0 crore. The largest single act of prevention in the year is absent from every money total the bank publishes, and will be absent from next year's too. Any institution that wants to know whether its controls are worth their cost has to count the things that did not happen, and there is exactly one register in which those appear.

A duplicate payment stopped at the second desk. See what segregation caught.

Who actually uses this, and not only inside a bank

The reason this control is worth treating on its own is that it is not a banking technique. Separation is the general answer to a general problem, and it turns up wherever value moves through hands, at every size.

The smallest scale is the clearest. A household running a shop keeps cash in a drawer. One person sells and takes the money; the same person writes the day's total in the book at closing. Nobody in that arrangement is dishonest, and the arrangement still cannot establish whether the drawer matches the book. The person who would notice a difference is the person who would have caused it. Moving the writing of the book to a second member of the household gives the shop, for no extra money and about four minutes a day, a fact it did not have before. The shop has separated custody from record keeping, with no policy document anywhere.

A wedding is the version everybody has seen. One person negotiates with the caterer and agrees the number of plates. A different person pays on the day against the agreed number. Households arrive at that arrangement by instinct rather than by design, usually after an occasion when one person did both and the final bill contained a surprise nobody could argue with. A residents' association is the same shape with a rule written down: the treasurer who writes the cheque is not the secretary who approves the expense, and the two are not the same person even when it would be much faster if they were.

A lender looks at exactly this before it lends to a small business, and it is often the single most informative thing about how the borrower is run. When one person in a firm raises the invoice, receives the payment, banks it and reconciles the account, the lender is not looking at a dishonest firm. The lender is looking at a firm whose books cannot be independently confirmed by anybody inside it. The lender is therefore relying on an outside auditor and on collateral rather than on the numbers themselves. The difference in how much comfort a set of accounts can carry is real, and it is visible from the seating plan.

An analyst reads the same thing from further away. A company reporting a control weakness in a revenue or a payments process is describing, almost always, a place where creating and confirming sat too close together, and the analyst's question is whether the remedy named is a real second pair of hands or a promise to be more careful. An investor in a small unlisted business can ask one question that carries a surprising amount: who can move money out of this business alone, and how many people is that. If the answer is one, everything else about the business is being asserted by a single person with nobody able to contradict them.

Separation describes what an institution can know about itself, and its absence describes what an institution cannot know.

Where the rules come from

Named, not stated

The mechanism described here is jurisdiction free. Two tasks, two people, and a check that must be able to refuse: that arithmetic is the same in every country and in every century. The arithmetic predates every institution named below.

The framework surrounding the control does have a source. The operational risk framework inside which a bank identifies, records and manages failures of process, people and systems originates with the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision at the Bank for International Settlements, bis.org. The rules an Indian bank must actually follow on internal control and the conduct of its operations come from the Reserve Bank of India at rbi.org.in. Where the institution is a company rather than a bank, the duty on internal financial controls sits with the Ministry of Corporate Affairs at mca.gov.in and the assurance standards behind reporting on them sit with the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India at icai.org.

Requirements, authority limits, control catalogues, thresholds and effective dates all change, and the only reliable version of any of them is the current one on the issuing body's own site.

Subjects that belong elsewhere. The segregation failure inside incident I13 is one leg of a well known three part account of why fraud happens, and that account is covered separately. Finding the underlying cause of an incident, the self assessment across processes, the exception and the issue are each covered separately too.

Control design as a technique, the control lifecycle, testing a control, the difference between a control that is well designed and one that operates effectively, the audit finding, the deficiency rating and remediation all belong to the controls and assurance material. The subject here is one control rather than how controls in general are built or tested. The three lines model belongs to the controls and assurance material as well.

A letter of credit, how it is issued and how it pays belong to the trade finance and instruments material. In incident I13 they are simply the instruments that were issued against forged documents.

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Sources

SourceDocumentSite
Bank for International SettlementsThe Basel Committee on Banking Supervision publications setting out the operational risk framework and the seven event categoriesbis.org
Reserve Bank of IndiaWhat an Indian bank must actually do about internal control, the conduct of its operations, outsourcing arrangements and information securityrbi.org.in
Ministry of Corporate AffairsThe Companies Act duty on internal financial controls, its applicability and the form of the report, where the institution is a companymca.gov.in
Institute of Chartered Accountants of IndiaThe assurance standard and guidance note behind reporting on internal financial controlsicai.org

Vindhya Commercial Bank Limited is invented.
Educational material. Not advice on any investment, tax, budget or market position.

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