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Behavioural Finance & Investor Decision-Making
1Foundations
The Rational InvestorJudgment Under UncertaintyPreferencesBehavioural FinanceInvestor and Market BehaviourFinancial Well-BeingBounded RationalityHeuristics and Biases
2Cognitive Biases, Emotion and Attention
Limited AttentionRepresentativenessThe Affect HeuristicAnchoring and AdjustmentEmotion and Decision QualityOverconfidence and OptimismAmbiguity and Complexity AversionAvailability and SalienceHome Bias, Local Bias…FramingThe Halo EffectHindsight BiasThe Narrative FallacyPresent Bias and Hyperbolic DiscountingBase-Rate NeglectStatus Quo Bias and the Default Effect
3Preferences and Prospect Theory
Prospect TheoryRegretThe Endowment EffectMental AccountingThe Sunk Cost FallacyLoss AversionRisk Seeking in Losses
4Social Behaviour
HerdingNarrative EconomicsFear of Missing OutGroupthinkSocial Proof
5Investment and Trading Behaviour
Excess TradingNaive DiversificationThe Disposition EffectLottery PreferencesNoise TradersPortfolio InertiaRecency Bias
6Markets and Anomalies
Mania, Panic and CapitulationMarket EfficiencyEfficient Market Hypothesis vs…Speculative BubblesReflexivityInvestor SentimentMarket AnomaliesShort-Sale ConstraintsPrice DiscoveryLimits to Arbitrage
7Decision, Research and Debiasing
The Decision JournalDebiasingChoice Architecture, Defaults and…The Pre-Mortem and Process QualityDecision Quality
8Advice, Conduct and Communication
Communication ConductSuitability and AppropriatenessChoice OverloadComplaint BehaviourRisk DisclosureVulnerable Investors

Communication Conduct: Fair Presentation, and What Crosses the Line

Fair presentation means a reader who takes the statement at face value is not left with a false impression. A statement can be entirely accurate and still mislead by what it omits, by what it makes prominent, or by the frame it uses, so fair presentation is a stronger test than truthfulness. All three routes are available without a single false word.

What is Fair Presentation, and fair to whom?

Start with something that happens in every street in the country. A vegetable seller shouts that the tomatoes are from the hills. They are. He does not shout that they were picked nine days ago, and nobody asks. The sentence he chose sounded like the whole answer to the question a buyer was already asking. Nothing he said was false. The buyer went home with a false impression anyway, and the seller did not have to lie once to produce it.

Fair presentationPresenting so that a reader taking it at face value is not left with a false impression. is the duty that closes that gap. The duty asks a question about the reader rather than about the sentence. Truthfulness is a property of the words. The impression is a property of the reader, and only the impression is what a communication is for. A communication that is checked line by line and cleared line by line can still fail this test everywhere, because the test was never being run on the lines.

The invented Palash decision log records 240 decisions taken by 60 investors over eight quarters. The two tests come apart on a single sentence from that log. Somebody writes that 61 of the 84 sales in the log were positions in gain, so 72.6 per cent of sales were winners. The accuracy check passes. 61 divided by 84 is 72.619, or 72.6 to one place. Every figure survives. The other check, the one that asks what a reader ends up believing, finds that the sentence has already done its damage.

One communication, and the two different tests that can be run on it. THE SENTENCE 61 of the 84 sales in the log were positions in gain, so 72.6 per cent of sales were winners. THE ACCURACY CHECK 61 divided by 84 is 72.619, which rounds to 72.6. Every figure in the sentence is right. WHAT THE READER TAKES nearly three sales in four went well, so the deciding on this log looks sound. BOX 3 decides it FAIR PRESENTATION IS A TEST ON THE THIRD BOX Truthfulness belongs to the sentence. The impression belongs to the reader who received it. A document of correct sentences can fail the second test without failing the first one anywhere.
Passing a sentence by sentence accuracy check leaves the reader's impression untested, and fair presentation is a test on that impression rather than on the sentence.
One shape, two settings, and neither of them contains a false word. OUTSIDE A VEGETABLE MARKET WHAT WAS SAID these tomatoes are from the hills WHAT IS TRUE they are from the hills WHAT WAS LEFT OUT they were picked nine days ago WHAT THE BUYER TOOK these are fresh hill tomatoes ON A SHEET OF FIGURES WHAT WAS SAID 72.6 per cent of the sales were winners WHAT IS TRUE 61 of 84 really is 72.6 per cent WHAT WAS LEFT OUT 108 in gain and 132 in loss were open WHAT THE READER TOOK this is somebody who decides well The third row is the whole difference, and nobody has to lie to leave it out.
The vegetable seller and the sheet of figures run the identical omission, and neither of them needs a false word to do it.

So the duty is a test on the impression. The harder half of the question is the second one: fair to whom. A sentence that misleads nobody in the room is not the same as a sentence that misleads nobody at all, and the rooms are different sizes. Three readers might meet the same line. The first already knows to ask what a share is measured against and goes looking for the missing figure. The second is reading at speed, takes the headline and stops. The third assumes, quite reasonably, that the number quoted was chosen because it is the one that answers the question.

The standard is set by the third reader, not the first. The reader who already knows was never going to be misled, so their impression is not evidence about anything. Writing for that reader is not really writing at all. The person the duty exists for is the one who has no reason to suspect the sentence and no time to audit it, and there is a plain reason why a duty of this shape would be aimed at them: they are the only reader whose impression the writer actually controls.

Fair to whom: the duty is set by the reader with the least to bring. THE READER WHO KNOWS already asks what the share is measured against, and goes looking for the denominator not misled THE READER AT SPEED reads the headline figure at speed, does not reach the working, and stops misled THE READER TAKING IT AT FACE VALUE assumes the number was chosen because it is the one that answers the question misled THE STANDARD IS SET BY THE THIRD COLUMN Not by the first. A communication written for the reader who already knows is not a communication at all.
The duty is set by the reader who takes the sentence at face value, not by the reader who already knows to go looking for what the share is measured against.
Try it out

Fair presentation is a test on what?

Financial Literacy Bootcamp — Fin Maverick

What is a Misleading Communication, and what are the three routes to one?

A misleading communicationOne whose effect is a false impression, whatever was intended. is one whose effect is a false impression. The definition leaves two things out: whether anything false was said, and what the writer was trying to do. Both of those are facts about the writer, and the definition is built out of facts about the reader instead. Once that shape is accepted, the interesting question stops being how somebody lies and becomes how somebody produces a false impression while saying nothing untrue.

There are three ways, and between them they cover most of what goes wrong in financial communication. The first is omissionLeaving out something that changes how the rest reads., where a fact that changes how everything else reads is simply not there. The second is prominenceHow likely a passage is to actually be read., where the qualifying fact is present, and set somewhere it will not be reached. The third is framingThe choice of wording for a fact, which changes decisions without changing the fact.. The same fact is stated in whichever of two true wordings suits the writer.

Three routes to a false impression. None of them needs a false word. THE ROUTE WHAT IS ACTUALLY DONE FALSE WORD NEEDED 1 OMISSION a fact that changes how the rest reads is left out none 2 PROMINENCE the qualification is present and set where it is not read none 3 FRAMING the same fact is stated in the wording that suits the writer none Because none of the three needs a false word, checking a communication sentence by sentence for accuracy clears all three of them and leaves the reader exactly as misled as before.
Omission, prominence and framing each produce a false impression without requiring a single false word, which is why an accuracy review clears all three of them.

None of the three requires a false word, and care is therefore not the test. A writer can check every figure twice, find every one correct, and ship all three routes intact. The ordinary quality check is an accuracy check, and accuracy is not what failed. Shipping all three routes is therefore not a hypothetical about careless people but the ordinary result of a careful review. The three routes are the reason a conduct duty about communication has to be written in terms of effect. A duty written in terms of truthfulness would clear all three of them on the first reading.

The lever structure also explains why these three and not others. Each one is a separate lever, and closing one leaves the other two open. Supplying the missing figure fixes omission while leaving the frame exactly as it was. Moving the warning to the top fixes prominence while leaving the denominator missing. The three routes come one at a time below, the first worked on the log's own numbers, followed by a procedure that shuts all three at once.

Three separate levers, and closing one of them leaves the other two exactly where they were. SUPPLY THE MISSING FIGURE closes omission omission: shut prominence and framing: open MOVE THE WARNING TO THE TOP closes prominence prominence: shut omission and framing: open GIVE BOTH WORDINGS closes framing framing: shut omission and prominence: open That is why the method further down is one procedure with four steps rather than three separate habits.
Closing any one route leaves the other two open, which is why the working method is one procedure rather than three separate habits.
Try it out

How many of the three routes require a false statement?

Breaking Into Quants Bootcamp — Fin Maverick

Route one is omission: what happens when the denominator goes missing?

Every word of the cleanest example in the subject is true, so it is worth working slowly. Across eight quarters the Palash log recorded 84 sells. Of those, 61 were positions standing in gain and 23 were positions standing in loss. So 72.6 per cent of the sales were winners. Somebody could put that in a client note tomorrow, and an auditor checking figures would pass it. 61 divided by 84 really is 0.72619, and it really does round to 72.6.

The question the sentence never invites is the one that matters. Seventy two point six per cent of what? Of the sales. And who chose which positions became sales? The person whose deciding is being described. The decisions are the denominator, so a share measured over the decisions somebody took cannot say anything about the deciding. The figure is not a measurement of behaviour at all. The figure is a restatement of the behaviour with a percentage sign attached.

The measurement needs the other number: what was available to be sold. Across those eight quarters 240 positions were open at some point, 108 of them standing in gain and 132 standing in loss. Terrance Odean, writing in the Journal of Finance in 1998, is where this way of measuring comes from, and the whole contribution of that paper is the denominatorWhat a share is measured against, and the commonest thing left out.: count what could have been sold, not only what was.

Two statements off one log. Both correct, and they do not say the same thing. THE STATEMENT MADE 61 of the 84 sales were positions in gain, so 72.6 per cent of sales were winners. 61 divided by 84 is 72.619 rounded to one place, 72.6 every figure checks out TRUE THE STATEMENT LEFT OUT Gains were realised at 56.5 per cent and losses at 17.4, a ratio of 3.2 to 1. 61 of the 108 open in gain 23 of the 132 open in loss every figure checks out TRUE Same 240 decisions. Same eight quarters. The second one names what was available to sell.
The headline percentage and the two realisation rates are both correct readings of one log, and only the second pair measures how somebody decides.

Do the two divisions. Gains were realised at 61 out of 108, or 56.5 per cent. Losses were realised at 23 out of 132, or 17.4 per cent. Divide one realisation rateThe share of the positions of a given kind that were actually sold, out of all the positions of that kind that could have been sold. by the other and the ratio is 3.2 to 1: a position standing in gain was a little over three times as likely to be sold as a position standing in loss. The ratio is a statement about deciding. The 72.6 was not.

What is being countedThe workingResult
Positions open across eight quarters108 standing in gain and 132 standing in loss240
Sells recorded61 from the gains and 23 from the losses84
The raw share of sales that were winners61 divided by 8472.6 per cent
Gains realised, out of the gains available61 divided by 10856.5 per cent
Losses realised, out of the losses available23 divided by 13217.4 per cent
The measurement56.5 divided by 17.4, held at the exact fractions3.2 to 1
The denominator, drawn. Three rows, and only the middle one is a rate. OPEN 240 108 in gain 132 in loss SOLD 84 61 23 61 of 108, being 56.5 per cent 23 of 132, being 17.4 per cent THE SALES 61 winners, 72.6 per cent 23 Drop the top row and this is all a reader is left with. THE MIDDLE ROW IS THE MEASUREMENT It divides by what was there to sell. The bottom row divides by what was sold, which the deciding chose.
Drawn as three rows the trap becomes visible, because dropping the top row leaves a true bar whose denominator is the set of decisions being described.

One line in that log makes it concrete. On 12 October, Meera Sundaram, an invented investor of 41 living on a salary, sold Suvarna Chemicals Limited whole at Rs 4,60,000/- against a cost of Rs 4,00,000/-, booking Rs 60,000/-, which is 15.0 per cent. The same day she kept Kesari Logistics Limited, then standing at Rs 1,95,000/- against a cost of Rs 3,00,000/-, saying she would sell it when it got back to what she paid. Her other two positions, the Vindhya index scheme and the Nilgiri mid-cap scheme, she left alone. The twelfth of October contributes an entry to the 61 and an entry to the 132, and a sentence built on the 61 alone will never let a reader see the second half of it.

One day in the log, and the two counts it feeds on opposite sides of the measurement. 12 OCTOBER, ONE ENTRY IN THE PALASH DECISION LOG SUVARNA CHEMICALS LIMITED cost Rs 4,00,000/-, value Rs 4,60,000/- SOLD WHOLE, BOOKING Rs 60,000/- one of the 61 realised gains KESARI LOGISTICS LIMITED cost Rs 3,00,000/-, value Rs 1,95,000/- KEPT, TO BE SOLD AT Rs 3,00,000/- one of the 109 losses left open A SENTENCE BUILT ON THE 61 SEES THE LEFT CARD AND NOT THE RIGHT ONE Both cards happened on the same day, to the same person, on the same log.
One day in the log puts a sold gain on one side of the measurement and a held loss on the other, and the raw share sees only the first.

Both statements are true and only one of them is a measurement. Route one is exactly that difference. Nothing was invented, nothing was rounded wrongly, and no reader was told anything that was not the case. A single number was left out, and it happened to be the number that turns a description of what somebody did into a description of how they decide.

Try it out

Somebody writes that 72.6 per cent of the sales were winners. What is wrong with that sentence?

How far can one missing denominator move a true sentence?

A reader who has followed the last section usually grants that the 72.6 is incomplete and then quietly files it as a small problem. The gap is not a small problem, and the way to feel its size is to hold the deciding perfectly still and change only the thing the sentence never mentions. Keep the two realisation rates exactly where the log put them, at 61 of 108 and 23 of 132. Change only the mix of positions that happened to be open.

Suppose the eight quarters had thrown up 50 positions in gain and 190 in loss instead. Apply the identical rates to that mix and the raw share of sales that were winners comes out at 46.0 per cent. Suppose instead they had thrown up 200 in gain and 40 in loss. The identical rates give a raw share of 94.2 per cent. The same conduct, unchanged in every respect, reads as anything from 46.0 to 94.2 per cent depending on a fact the sentence never mentions. The 3.2 ratio sits at 3.2 the whole way across.

Try it out

Before the control below is moved: does the 3.2 ratio change as the mix of open positions changes?

Play with it

Hold the deciding still and move only what was there to sell

One variable moves: how many of the 240 open positions were standing in gain, from 50 up to 200, with the rest standing in loss. The two realisation rates are pinned at the log's own values of 61 of 108 and 23 of 132, so nothing about the deciding changes anywhere on this control. At the log's real mix of 108 and 132 the raw share is 72.6 per cent, the rates are 56.5 and 17.4, and the ratio is 3.2 to 1. At 50 and 190 the raw share falls to 46.0; at 200 and 40 it rises to 94.2. The ratio is the measurement and the raw share is the trap.

50 in gain, 190 in loss108 in gain, 132 in loss200 in gain, 40 in loss
One control: what was there to be sold. Nothing else on this picture changes. WHAT WAS THERE TO SELL, ALWAYS 240 POSITIONS 108 in gain 132 in loss THE RAW SHARE OF SALES THAT WERE WINNERS 72.6 0 25 50 75 100 THE TWO REALISATION RATES, WHICH DO NOT MOVE 17.4, losses 56.5, gains ratio 3.2 to 1 The green marker never moves, the red marker never moves, and the ratio between them never moves.
Positions open in gain, what moves
108
The raw share of sales that were winners
72.6
Gains realised, held fixed
56.5
Losses realised, held fixed
17.4

With 108 of the 240 positions standing in gain, the raw share of sales that were winners reads 72.6 per cent, while the realisation rates stay at 56.5 and 17.4 and the ratio stays at 3.2 to 1.

Educational illustration. The two realisation rates are held at the exact fractions 61 divided by 108 and 23 divided by 132 at every setting, so every bit of movement in the headline figure comes from the mix alone and none of it comes from the deciding. Rounding the rates first would give 46.1 at the far left and would break the log's own 72.6.
Hold the deciding fixed, change only the mix, and watch the headline figure travel. 0 20 40 60 80 100 per cent gains realised at 56.5, flat at every mix losses realised at 17.4, flat at every mix 46.0 per cent 94.2 per cent the log's own mix, 108 in gain: 72.6 per cent 50 100 150 200 positions open in gain, out of 240 The rising line is the raw share of sales that were winners. The dashed lines are the two realisation rates, which never move at all.
Pinning both realisation rates and moving only the mix sends the headline percentage from 46.0 to 94.2 while the measurement itself sits perfectly still.

Watch which number the picture rewards. The travelling figure is the one a reader finds easiest to repeat, and it is the one carrying no information about the deciding at all. The two figures that do carry the information sit flat and look boring. The asymmetry is not an accident of this log but a general feature of shares taken over what somebody chose to do, and the missing denominator earns a section of its own rather than a footnote.

And notice where the mix itself comes from. The mix is not a fact about the person at all. Across the same eight quarters the invented and illustrative Palash 100 index opened at 100.0, reached its peak of 131.0 at the end of the second quarter and its low of 104.0 at the end of the fourth. Peak to trough, the fall is 20.6 per cent. A run of that shape moves the count of positions standing in gain all by itself, with nobody deciding anything. So a sentence quoting the raw share reports the market as though it were the investor, and stacks a second false impression on the first.

Where the mix comes from: an illustrative index over the same eight quarters. 100 110 120 130 open Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 peak 131.0 low 104.0 peak to trough, 20.6 per cent Illustrative throughout, and never a description of any real market. A run of this shape changes how many positions stand in gain without anybody deciding anything at all.
An illustrative index peaking at 131.0 and falling 20.6 per cent to 104.0 changes the mix of open positions without anybody deciding anything.

Route two is prominence: is a warning that is present the same as a warning that is read?

Route one removed a fact. Route two leaves every fact in place and moves one of them. A rental agreement, a hospital consent form, the terms on a loan: everything was there. Almost nobody read it, and whoever laid it out knew roughly how much of it would be read. The question this route asks is whether a fact set where nobody reaches it has been communicated at all.

The Palash practice ran a reading test that puts a number on it. Its scheme document runs to 46 printed sides, with the risk statement on side 31 in eight point type. Thirty readers were given the document and afterwards asked to state the main risk. Seven could, or 23.3 per cent. The same risk, written as 90 words and placed at the top, was given to another thirty. Twenty four could state it afterwards, or 80.0 per cent. Nothing about the risk changed between the two rounds, and nothing about the readers did either.

Present is not the same as read, and the document decides which one a warning is. THE SCHEME DOCUMENT, 46 PAGES page 31 eight point type WHERE THE RISK STATEMENT SAT page 31 of 46, in eight point type 7 of 30 readers could state the main risk afterwards, being 23.3 per cent WHERE IT WAS MOVED TO 90 words, placed at the top 24 of 30 readers could state the main risk afterwards, being 80.0 per cent
The same risk statement moved from side 31 of 46 to ninety words at the top raised the share of readers who could state it from 23.3 to 80.0 per cent.

The communication is what gets read; what is merely present is a fact about the file. The distinction sounds like word play until the two numbers are set beside it. The gap between 23.3 and 80.0 was produced by placement and type size alone. Marianne Bertrand and Adair Morse, in the Journal of Finance in 2011, tested exactly this on borrowing disclosures and found that where and how a fact is set changes what people do with it, not merely what they say they saw. John Beshears and his co-authors reported the same shape for simplified scheme disclosure in 2011.

Same risk, same readers, and only the placement changed between the two rows. buried on page 31 23.3 per cent, 7 of 30 90 words at the top 80.0 per cent, 24 of 30 0 25 50 75 100 readers who could state the main risk afterwards
Placement and type size alone account for the gap between seven readers of thirty and twenty four of thirty, with the risk itself entirely unchanged.
Disclosed and communicated are two different sizes, and only one of them is a duty discharged. PRESENT IN THE FILE 46 pages, every fact in place, nothing withheld and nothing untrue ACTUALLY READ the headline, the first screen, and whatever the eye lands on before deciding the risk statement, page 31, eight point type outside the green box INSIDE THE RED BOX AND OUTSIDE THE GREEN ONE is a fact that has been disclosed and has not been communicated to anybody.
A fact inside the file and outside what gets read has been disclosed without ever being communicated to anybody.

The way gains and losses are weighed against a reference point stops being background here and starts doing work. If placement changed only how pleasant a document was to read, it would be a matter of courtesy. Because placement changes what the reader ends up believing, it is a matter of conduct, and burying a qualification becomes a choice with the same effect as leaving it out. The argument that the information was disclosed therefore cannot settle anything on its own: it answers a question about the document when the question was about the reader.

Portfolio Management Bootcamp — Fin Maverick

Route three is framing: can a communicator avoid choosing a frame at all?

The third route is the uncomfortable one. Nobody can opt out of it. The log's own gains figure shows why. Gains were realised at 56.5 per cent. So 43.5 per cent of the gains available were left alone. Losses were realised at 17.4 per cent. The other 82.6 per cent of the losses available were still being held at the end of the eight quarters. Every one of those four sentences is arithmetically correct, and they do not read the same way at all.

Two ways of saying one measurement, and both of them are arithmetically correct. THE GAINS: 108 WERE OPEN 56.5 per cent were realised 43.5 per cent were left alone 56.5 THE LOSSES: 132 WERE OPEN 17.4 per cent were realised 82.6 per cent were held on to 17.4 There is no third sentence that states this without choosing one of the two.
Every realisation measurement can be stated as the share that was realised or as the share that was not, and both of those wordings are arithmetically correct.
One measurement, four true sentences, and a writer has to pick one of them. STATED AS THE SHARE REALISED STATED AS THE SHARE NOT REALISED THE GAINS 108 open 56.5 per cent of the gains available were sold 43.5 per cent of the gains available were left alone THE LOSSES 132 open 17.4 per cent of the losses available were sold 82.6 per cent of the losses available were still held All four are arithmetically correct, and no fifth sentence states this without choosing.
One realisation measurement yields four arithmetically correct sentences, and a writer has to choose one of them to publish.

Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, in Econometrica in 1979, set out the structure that explains why the wording moves people: outcomes are judged as gains or losses from a reference point rather than as final positions, and the same outcome described on either side of that point is not evaluated the same way. The Palash cohort shows the effect on itself. Asked what gain would make a fifty-fifty gamble against a Rs 10,000/- loss worth taking, the median answer was Rs 22,000/-. Offered a certain Rs 5,000/- against a half chance of Rs 11,000/-, 42 of the 60 took the certain amount, or 70.0 per cent. Offered a certain Rs 5,000/- loss against a half chance of losing Rs 11,000/-, 39 of the 60 took the chance, or 65.0 per cent.

The same 60 people on the same afternoon, asked in two different wordings. STATED AS A GAIN 42 of 60 took the certain Rs 5,000/- 70.0 per cent STATED AS A LOSS 39 of 60 took the half chance of losing 65.0 per cent Cautious above the starting point and chance-taking below it, from one set of people.
The same sixty people were cautious when the identical choice was worded as a gain and chance-taking when it was worded as a loss.

Same 60 people, same afternoon, cautious on one side and chance-taking on the other. There is no unframed way to state a fact, so a writer cannot claim to have been neutral about a frame they had to choose. Every sentence about a proportion picks a side; every sentence about a change picks a direction. The honest response is not to hunt for the neutral wording. There is not one. Give both wordings instead, at a cost of one clause, and the lever is gone. The four-step procedure below does exactly that in its last step.

Try it out

Can a communicator avoid choosing a frame?

Why is a communication judged by its effect and not by what was intended?

Here is where most people go wrong, and it is not a failure of ethics. The mistake is a failure of definition. The instinct is to treat intent as the test: somebody who meant well has not misled anybody, and somebody who meant to deceive has. The instinct works fine for lying, a category defined by the speaker. The instinct fails for misleading, a category defined by the listener.

Two writers, two intentions, and one impression that does not tell them apart. THE CARELESS WRITER reaches for the flattering number and does not look for the denominator THE CAREFUL WRITER checks each figure twice, finds every one correct, and ships the sentence THE READER thinks nearly three sales in four went well, and never learns what was there to be sold THE TEST DOES NOT ASK WHICH BOX THE SENTENCE CAME FROM A misleading communication is one whose effect is a false impression. The reader's impression is the outcome, and it does not consult anybody's intentions before forming. Care changes the writer and leaves the outcome where it was.
A careful writer and a careless one deliver the same false impression, which is why the test has to be written on the effect rather than on the intent.

The error that gets made, and what it costs

The error is asking whether the writer meant it. Put two writers side by side. The first reaches for the flattering number without looking for what it is measured against. The second checks every figure twice, finds every single one correct, and ships the same sentence with a clear conscience. The reader receives one sentence, forms one impression, and that impression is false in both cases by exactly the same amount.

The error is a hard one rather than a lazy one. All three routes are open to a careful writer. An accuracy review is looking for something that is not there, so omission, prominence and framing survive it intact. Somebody who genuinely believes the sentence is fine has produced exactly the same false impression as somebody who does not. A duty about communication cannot be written as a duty about honesty and has to be written as a duty about effect.

The error costs the ability to find the problem. If the test is intent, then reviewing a communication means asking the writer what they were trying to do, and the writer will always answer that they were trying to be accurate, truthfully. If the test is effect, reviewing means asking what a reader is likely to end up believing. Somebody other than the writer can actually answer that question. The second question can be checked; the first can only be asserted.

Try it out

Does a careful communicator avoid producing a misleading communication?

Private Wealth Management Bootcamp — Fin Maverick Document Extraction in Finance — free micro-course from Fin Maverick

What is Informed Consent, and why is a signature not it?

Everything so far has been about what a writer produces. The remaining question is what a reader is taken to have agreed to, and it is where the three routes do their most expensive work. Informed consentAgreement given with understanding of what is being agreed to. is agreement given with understanding of the thing agreed to. A signature is a record that agreement was given. Consent and the signature are two different events, and only one of them leaves a mark on a file.

Draw the two as separate axes and the shape becomes obvious. A person can sign without understanding, producing a record of consent with no consent inside it. A person can understand without signing, producing consent that nothing can evidence. A person can do both, the case everybody assumes is happening. The signature axis is the one a file can show, and the understanding axis is the one consent actually lives on. A stack of signatures is therefore evidence about a process rather than evidence about consent.

Signing and understanding are two separate events, and only one of them leaves a record. NOT SIGNED, NOT UNDERSTOOD nothing has happened yet SIGNED, NOT UNDERSTOOD a record of consent with no consent in it NOT SIGNED, UNDERSTOOD consent is present and unrecorded SIGNED AND UNDERSTOOD consent, and a record that it happened UNDERSTOOD WHAT WAS SIGNED DID NOT UNDERSTAND IT NO SIGNATURE SIGNATURE ON FILE The right column is what a file can show. The top row is what consent actually is.
Signing and understanding sit on different axes, so a file full of signatures is evidence about a process rather than evidence about consent.

Put the reading test from route two next to it and the size of the gap stops being theoretical. Thirty readers were handed the document of 46 printed sides. Seven could state the main risk afterwards. If all thirty had then signed, the file would hold thirty records and seven of them would sit in the top row. Nobody forged anything and nobody was rushed. The document simply set the risk statement where 23 of the 30 did not reach it, and a signature does not distinguish between a reader who reached it and a reader who did not.

Thirty readers, thirty signatures available, and seven who could say what they had agreed to. AFTER THE 46 PAGE DOCUMENT 7 FILLED, BEING 23.3 PER CENT could state the main risk afterwards 23 EMPTY, BEING 76.7 PER CENT a signature and nothing behind it
Of thirty readers given the long document seven could state the main risk afterwards, so twenty three signatures would record agreement without understanding.

There is a further turn here, covered separately. George Loewenstein, Daylian Cain and Sunita Sah, in the American Economic Review in 2011, and Cain, Loewenstein and Don Moore in the Journal of Legal Studies in 2005, found that disclosing a conflict can make the person receiving the disclosure worse off rather than better, partly because the disclosure licenses the person making it. The point to carry away is narrow: telling somebody a thing is not the same event as their understanding it, and the two can move in opposite directions. The narrow point is enough to show why consent has to be defined on the understanding axis, and the full argument is covered separately.

Try it out

Why is a signature not consent?

Building a Client Risk Profile teaches you to turn a client conversation into a documented risk profile, and to separate capacity from tolerance.

How to Communicate Financial Uncertainty Fairly, and which step gets skipped?

Everything above is diagnosis. The working method is four steps in a fixed order. The three routes are separate levers, so a habit that closes one of them leaves the others exactly where they were. Run these four in sequence and all three shut together.

Step one: give the range before the point estimateA single number given as the answer, with no spread around it.. Step two: name the denominator in the same sentence as the share. Step three: state what would change the answer. Step four: give both frames. People skip step one. A single number reads as competence and a range reads as hedging, and the reading is exactly backwards. A single number claims knowledge the writer does not have, and a reader who takes it at face value is being handed a false impression of precision by somebody who never said anything false.

Four steps in a fixed order, and the first one is the step people skip. 1 GIVE THE RANGE BEFORE THE POINT ESTIMATE a single number reads as knowledge the writer does not have THE SKIPPED ONE 2 NAME THE DENOMINATOR say what the share is measured against, in the same sentence 3 STATE WHAT WOULD CHANGE THE ANSWER the reader can then judge how firm the answer is 4 GIVE BOTH FRAMES state the share that did and the share that did not Run in this order the procedure removes all three routes at once, which is why it is one procedure and not three.
The four steps close all three routes at once, and the first is skipped because a single number reads as competence while a range reads as hedging.

The order does its own work. A note that begins with the point estimate and adds the range afterwards leaves the reader anchored on the number, and the range reads as a qualification, in a second run of route two. Naming the denominator only in a footnote leaves route one open. Giving one frame and stopping leaves route three open. The order is not decoration: each step is placed where the reader meets it before the thing it qualifies.

The four steps in order and out of order, on the same four pieces of information. IN ORDER range denominator what would change it both frames all three routes shut POINT ESTIMATE FIRST the number range denominator both frames route two reopens: the range now reads as a qualification The reader meets each step before the thing it qualifies, which is the only reason the order is fixed.
Running the same four steps with the point estimate placed first reopens the prominence route, which is why the order is fixed.

Applied to the log's own sentence, the rewrite is not a retraction. Nothing false went in, so nothing false comes out. The rewrite adds the denominator, a statement of what the eight quarters could and could not support, and the second frame. The result is longer and it is the only version of the two that a reader taking it at face value is not misled by.

The same log, written twice: once before the procedure and once after it. BEFORE Of the 84 sales in the log, 61 were positions in gain, so 72.6 per cent of sales were winners. AFTER Across eight quarters 240 positions were open, 108 in gain and 132 in loss. Gains were realised at 61 of 108 and losses at 23 of 132, so a gain was about three times as likely to be sold as a loss. Read the other way, 82.6 per cent of the losses were still being held at the end. Nothing false was removed, because nothing false was there. What was added is the denominator and the second frame.
The rewrite removes nothing false because nothing false was present, and what it adds is the missing denominator and the second frame.

One caution belongs inside the procedure rather than after it. The Palash log covers 60 people over eight quarters, far too small to support a claim that any of this changes what somebody earns. Twenty of the 60 adopted a written checklist on 4 November; across quarters five to eight they recorded a written reason on 34 of their 41 decisions, being 82.9 per cent, against 19 of 63 for the other 40, being 30.2 per cent, and their realisation ratio fell from 3.2 to 1.6. The checklist figures are about process and about nothing else. A note that let a reader draw a return conclusion out of them would be running route one on its own reader.

Where exactly does the line fall, stated concretely?

Abstract tests are easy to agree with and hard to apply, so here is the line drawn on four ordinary things every communication has to do. Each row holds two true versions of the same task. Truth is constant across the whole table, so the difference between the columns is never truth. The difference is what a reader is left holding.

Where the line falls, drawn on four ordinary things a communication has to do. WHAT IS BEING DONE STILL FAIR PRESENTATION OVER THE LINE the share given with what it is measured against, in the same sentence given on its own, with the denominator held back the qualification set where the eye lands before the claim does present in the file, set where it will not be read the frame both wordings given, so the reader chooses between them the wording that reads best for the writer, and only that one the single number a range first, then the number inside it one number, given as though it were known The line is not drawn by what is true. Every cell in both columns is true.
The line never runs along truth, because every cell in both columns of this table is arithmetically correct as it stands.

Read the table twice, once down each column. Down the left, every cell gives the reader the thing they would need to ask for. Down the right, every cell gives the reader a sentence that answers the question they asked while leaving them worse informed than a silence would have. The line falls where a reader taking the sentence at face value would form a different picture from a reader who had the working, and it falls there whether or not anybody meant it to.

Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein, in Nudge in 2008, made the same structural point about layouts rather than about sentences: there is no neutral way to present a set of options, so whoever lays them out has chosen something whether they wanted to or not. The line between arranging a choice honestly and arranging it to produce a particular outcome falls in the same place as the line in the table above, and for the same reason. Truth is available on both sides of both lines, so neither line runs along truth.

The test has one property worth naming, and it is the property that makes the test usable. The test can be run without knowing anything about the writer. No access is needed to the writer's motives, their file, or their review process. The test needs the sentence, the reader it is aimed at, and the working behind it, and two people running it on the same communication will usually agree. A test built on intent has none of that. A duty of this shape would be written the way it is for exactly that reason.

How does somebody actually use this on a Tuesday morning?

A conduct idea has to survive contact with an ordinary week, so here it is for four people who are not thinking about conduct at all. A household reading a scheme summary before putting Rs 25,000/- a month into it by standing instruction has one job: find what the headline share is measured against. If the sentence does not say, they have not been given a number yet, they have been given a mood.

A lender reading a borrower's own account of their repayment record runs route two instead. Not what does the file say, but how many sheets had to be turned to reach the qualification, and whether somebody without a lender's training would have turned them. An analyst reading a scheme's own commentary runs route three: which frame is this in, and what does the identical fact sound like stated the other way. A person deciding alone, with no adviser and no committee, runs step three of the procedure on themselves, asking what would change this answer and whether anybody volunteered it or they had to go looking.

Four questions that work on any communication, whoever is reading it. THE HOUSEHOLD What is this a share of? If the sentence does not say, the number has not been given yet. THE LENDER Where is the qualification, and how many pages must a reader turn to reach it? THE ANALYST Which frame is this, and what does the same fact sound like stated the other way? THE PERSON DECIDING ALONE What would change this answer, and did the writer tell me or did I have to ask? None of the four asks whether anything is true. All four ask what impression is being built.
Four questions a household, a lender, an analyst and a person deciding alone can each run, none of which asks whether anything is true.

Devika Rao, the invented adviser at Palash Advisory Services Private Limited, uses the four questions as a drafting check rather than a reading check, the same instrument pointed the other way. Before a note goes out she reads it as the third reader from the opening section: somebody with no reason to suspect it and no time to audit it. The cheapest check catches the most: read the drafted sentence as somebody who does not already know the answer. None of the four questions asks whether anything is true. All four ask what impression is being built, and the impression is the only thing the duty is about.

What can behavioural reasoning never settle about a requirement?

Everything above is an argument about why a duty shaped like fair presentation would exist, not an account of what any rule requires. The division matters for a practical reason: behavioural reasoning and legal requirement move at different speeds, and an account that mixed them would go stale in one place and mislead in the other.

The four-step procedure is a working method rather than a specification: it fixes no threshold, no period, no rate, no minimum, no format and no prescribed wording. The behavioural case for a duty of this shape is not the duty itself.

Two lists, and only the claims in the left one are being made. WHAT THIS GUIDE DOES SAY why a duty of this shape would exist what a false impression is made of how a true sentence can produce one a working method for avoiding all three WHAT IT DOES NOT SAY what any rule requires of anybody any threshold, period, rate or format any judgement on a reader's own writing anything about what to do with money The behavioural case for a duty is not the duty, and the requirement is confirmed at its source.
The behavioural case for a duty of this shape is not a statement of any requirement.
Where the requirement actually lives

What a communication must contain is set elsewhere, and must be confirmed there

The Securities and Exchange Board of India sets what a communication, a risk disclosure or a consent record must actually contain in India, and its material is at sebi.gov.in, where anybody who needs the requirement confirms it. The Association of Mutual Funds in India at amfiindia.com publishes investor-facing practice, and the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) at iosco.org publishes retail conduct principles. Describing what an adviser in a worked case should consider is not a statement about what any real adviser is required to do.

Try it out

Which requirement does the behavioural argument establish?

This guide explains why a duty of fair presentation would exist. It states no rule, no threshold, no period and no requirement, and the reader who needs one confirms it with the Securities and Exchange Board of India at sebi.gov.in. It assesses no reader's own communications and gives no view on any holding. Suitability, choice overload, complaint behaviour, disclosure salience and the heightened care some situations call for are covered separately, each with its own measurement and its own original paper. The behavioural findings named here explain why communications go wrong; none of them is a signal, and none of them is evidence that acting on it would pay.

Sources

SourceDocumentSite
Terrance Odeanthe 1998 paper in the Journal of Finance measuring realisation against what was available to be soldssrn.com
Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tverskythe 1979 paper in Econometrica setting out the reference point and the treatment of gains and lossesssrn.com
Marianne Bertrand and Adair Morsethe 2011 paper in the Journal of Finance on disclosure, cognitive biases and payday borrowingnber.org
John Beshears and co-authorsthe 2011 work on simplified scheme disclosure and what readers retain from itnber.org
George Loewenstein, Daylian Cain and Sunita SahThe Limits of Transparency, American Economic Review, 2011ssrn.com
Daylian Cain, George Loewenstein and Don Moorethe 2005 paper in the Journal of Legal Studies on disclosing a conflict of interestssrn.com
Richard Thaler and Cass SunsteinNudge, 2008, on the absence of a neutral way to lay out a choicecited to the book itself
Securities and Exchange Board of Indiaconduct, disclosure and consent requirements applying to registered intermediariessebi.gov.in
Association of Mutual Funds in Indiainvestor-facing communication practice for schemesamfiindia.com
International Organization of Securities Commissionsprinciples on the conduct owed to retail investorsiosco.org

Meera Sundaram, Devika Rao, Palash Advisory Services Private Limited, the Palash decision log, the Palash 100 index, the Vindhya index scheme, the Nilgiri mid-cap scheme, Suvarna Chemicals Limited and Kesari Logistics Limited are invented.
Educational material. Not advice on any investment, tax, budget or market position.

Covered in this topic

Subtopics

Informed ConsentFair PresentationMisleading CommunicationHow to Communicate Financial Uncertainty Fairly
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