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Financial Analyst Program · CoreTrack
1Financial Accounting, Reporting & Analysis
iAccounting System and Standards
Financial AccountingDebits and CreditsAccrual and Cash AccountingAccounting Policies, Estimates and…The Matching PrincipleDouble-Entry AccountingGoing ConcernInd AS and IFRSWhy Two Honest Companies…
iiFinancial Statement Architecture
The Three Financial StatementsConsolidated Financial StatementsStandalone and Consolidated Statements…How to Read a…How to Perform Trend…Which Accounting Rules Apply…
iiiIncome Statement, Profitability and Tax
The Income StatementRevenue vs Income vs ProfitHow to Read an Income StatementThe Profit LadderEBITDA and EBIT Compared,…EBIT vs EBT vs PATOperating ExpenditureTax-Loss CarryforwardWhy a Company's Effective…Deferred TaxDiluted EPSEffective Tax Rate
ivBalance Sheet and Capital Employed
The Balance SheetAsset TypesCapital EmployedReturn on Capital EmployedLiabilitiesBook ValueRetained EarningsOff-Balance-Sheet FinancingHow to Read a Balance SheetTangible Net Worth
vCash Flow and Liquidity
The Cash Flow StatementOperating, Investing and Financing…Operating Cash FlowProfit vs Cash FlowCash Flow From Operations vs EBITDARevenue Growth vs Operating Cash FlowHow to Read a Cash Flow StatementHow to Reconcile Cash…
viRevenue, Receivables and Working Capital
The Working Capital CycleThe Working Capital CycleReturn on Invested CapitalHow Working Capital Affects Cash FlowAccrued and Deferred RevenueRevenueHow to Analyse Revenue QualityAccounts PayableAccounts ReceivableExpected Credit Loss
viiInventory, Cost Accounting and Margins
Cost AbsorptionInventoryCost of Goods SoldFIFO vs Weighted Average CostAmortised Cost vs Fair ValueInventory Write-DownsMargin AnalysisContribution MarginOperating LeverageGross Profit vs Gross MarginHow to Analyse Profit MarginsHow to Interpret Operating…
viiiFixed Assets, Leases and Intangibles
DepreciationDepreciation MethodsAmortisation vs DepreciationAsset ImpairmentCapital ExpenditureAsset Efficiency and Capital IntensityProperty, Plant and EquipmentIntangible AssetsOperating Lease vs Finance…How to Analyse Capex…Why Capitalising Costs Increases…
ixDebt, Equity and Financial Instruments
Equity on the Balance SheetDebt TypesNet Debt and LeverageDebt vs Equity Accounting ClassificationHow to Analyse Debt…Convertible BondsInterest in the AccountsShare CapitalShare DilutionHybrid Instruments
xConsolidation and Business Combinations
ControlSubsidiaryGoodwillAssociate CompanyJoint Venture vs Associate…Intercompany EliminationsThe Equity MethodHow to Analyse Group…
xiCash, Investments and Financial Assets
Cash and Cash EquivalentsHow to Analyse Cash…The Fair Value HierarchyHow to Interpret a…Financial Asset ClassificationMarketable Securities and Short-Term Investments
xiiFinancial Ratios and Performance Diagnostics
Return on CapitalDuPont AnalysisHow to Perform Common-Size AnalysisDebt to EquityLiquidity RatiosLeverage and Coverage RatiosReturn on Equity and the DuPont DecompositionWhich Financial Ratios Matter…
xiiiEarnings Quality, Red Flags and Forensics
Earnings QualityHow to Prepare for…Channel StuffingEarnings ManagementHow to Analyse Related-Party…How to Spot Accounting…Why Frequent Exceptional Items…What an Auditor Change…
xivAnnual Reports, Notes and Disclosure Reading
Notes to the AccountsManagement Discussion and AnalysisSegment ReportingShareholding PatternPro Forma FinancialsAnnual Report vs Investor…How to Read an Annual Report
xvAudit, Assurance and Reporting Reliability
The Statutory Audit and the AuditorAudit MaterialityEmphasis of MatterFinancial RestatementInternal AuditLimited ReviewKey Audit MattersInternal Controls Over Financial ReportingThe Audit OpinionAuditor Independence
2Business, Industry & Company Analysis
iBusiness Fundamentals and Models
The Business EcosystemThe Business ModelStakeholdersThe Business Life CyclePlatform BusinessesHow to Build a…The Value NetworkMonetisationUnit EconomicsThe Profit PoolTake RateB2B vs B2C
iiRevenue and Pricing
The Revenue ModelRevenue Growth vs Monetisation…Pricing PowerRecurring RevenueAverage Revenue Per UserARPU vs Average Order ValuePrice DiscriminationGross Margin vs Contribution MarginFixed Costs vs Variable Costs
iiiOperating Model and Supply Chain
The Operating ModelThe Value ChainThroughputThe Supply ChainVertical IntegrationVertical vs Horizontal IntegrationProcurementCapacity UtilisationJust-in-Time vs Just-in-Case InventoryMake vs Buy
ivCustomers and Brands
Brand EquityCustomer LoyaltyCustomer Segments and the JourneyCustomer EconomicsHow to Analyse Customer…Distribution ChannelsCustomer Acquisition Cost
vCompetitive Advantage and Moats
The Sources of Competitive…Competitive RivalryEconomies of Scale and…Network EffectsSwitching CostsCost Leadership vs DifferentiationHow to Test Whether a Moat Is Eroding
viIndustry Structure and Sector Behaviour
Industry TypesConsolidation and FragmentationSubstitutesBuyer PowerSupplier PowerThe Industry Life CycleHerfindahl-Hirschman IndexSector vs IndustryCompany Analysis vs Industry AnalysisCyclical vs Defensive SectorHow to Apply Porter's…How to Analyse Competitive…
viiMarket Size and Addressable Market
Market SizeMarket Concentration vs Market ShareTop-Down vs Bottom-Up Market SizingDemand DriversThe Adoption CurveGrowth DriversMarket FragmentationMarket ShareHow to Interpret Market Share Changes
viiiInnovation and Technology Shift
InnovationResearch and DevelopmentTechnology Adoption and DiffusionThe Product Life CycleProduct Innovation vs Process InnovationDigital TransformationCannibalisationDisruptive InnovationThe Technology S-Curve
ixCorporate and Business Strategy
Corporate and Business Strategy ComparedHow to Build Business…How Execution Risk Can…Organic and Inorganic Growth ComparedGrowth Investment vs Capital ReturnOrganisation Design and TransformationHorizontal vs Conglomerate DiversificationCentralised vs Decentralised OrganisationCompany Research vs Investment ResearchHow to Separate Facts,…
xManagement and Governance Quality
Management QualityFounder-Led vs Professional ManagementThe PromoterThe BoardInstitutional OwnershipPromoter Ownership vs Institutional…The Agency ProblemIndependent DirectorsInsider OwnershipHow to Analyse Ownership…How Capital Allocation Shapes…
xiStrategic and Business Risk
Business RiskPlatform vs Pipeline BusinessAsset-Light vs Asset-Heavy vs…Commodity vs Branded BusinessHow to Write a…The Business Risk RegisterStrategy in PracticeStrategic Risk vs Financial RiskHow to Evaluate a…How to Build a…
xiiBusiness Research Method
Business AnalysisCompany Filings as a Research SourceCompetitor MappingThe Variant ViewPrimary ResearchPrimary vs Secondary Research

Primary vs Secondary Research: What Each One Can Settle

Asking somebody a question and writing down what they said is one route to a fact. Working from a record that somebody else made, checked and put out is the other. The two words cross rather than nest: the record of a call is an original record reached entirely second hand, and an answer from a head teacher is first hand and leaves nothing anybody can open.

Two facts, both useful. Which one is the primary one?

The definitions are the easy part and the question is where everybody comes unstuck, so the question comes first. Two facts sit on the desk. Both facts concern a small maker of hard-bound school registers called Anjani Stationers Private Limited, an invented business these notes use for teaching, and both are perfectly good facts.

The first: what the business said about its own year, taken from the written record of the meeting in which it said it. The second: that head teachers around the district have come across the name of one maker of school registers and have not come across the name of the other. Now answer the question in the heading. Which of those two is the primary one?

Both answers are defensible, and a great many careful people give one of them without noticing the other exists. Sit with both for a moment. The first fact came off a document that sits about as close to the thing itself as any document ever sits. Nobody summarised it, nobody paraphrased it, nobody selected from it. If closeness to the event is what the word means, that document wins and it wins easily. The second fact was got by asking. Nobody handed it over, nobody had printed it, and it exists in writing only because somebody went out and put a question to a person who could answer it. If doing the work yourself is what the word means, the second one wins and it wins just as easily.

Both readings are correct, and they are correct about two different questions that happen to have been given the same word. That collision is the whole of this guide, and everything after this point is either a way of seeing the collision clearly or a consequence of taking it seriously.

OFF A WRITTEN RECORD What the business said about its own year, taken from the record of the meeting in which it said it. Nobody summarised it. Nobody selected from it. OFF AN ANSWER GIVEN That head teachers around a district have come across one maker of registers by name and not the other. In writing only because somebody put the question. WHICH OF THESE IS THE PRIMARY ONE?
Two facts of identical standing, one taken off a written record and one got by asking, with the question left open because both answers are correct about different things.

Before either side can be set against the other, each has to be said properly on its own. Each of the two is said in full and said short, because each is covered at length elsewhere in these notes.

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What is it to ask somebody, said in full and on its own?

The analyst works out who would be in a position to know. A question goes to that person about dealings that are theirs, on a point they are at liberty to state without it costing them anything, and the answer is written down, along with who said it and when. Asking is the whole act, with no ceremony in it and no technique worth the name.

The asking exists for what it reaches. Some facts about a trade were never any one business's transaction to record, so no business writes them down about itself. Whether nine other paper mills within delivery range make the same weight and finish is not a line in anybody's accounts. Which of two names a head teacher has come across is not a line in anybody's accounts either. Both are perfectly ordinary facts. Both are things somebody knows. Printing either one was nobody's job, so neither was ever going to be printed. In these notes a fact of that kind is called a field factSomething true about a trade that no single business publishes about itself. Recording it was never any one business's job., and the only route to one runs through a person.

The one property this act carries, and it carries it alone, is that the answer exists nowhere at all until somebody writes it down. Nothing was waiting to be found. There was no document with the figure in it that went unlocated. The asking made the record, and without the asking there would be no record. The absence of any prior record turns into the sharpest practical difference between the two routes. The reach of a conversation, and why the useful question is nearly always an easy one for the other person to answer, is covered separately, and the closing table names where.

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What is it to work from a record somebody else made?

Somebody inside a business wrote the thing up. Somebody else went over it. The record was put out where anybody who cares to look can reach it, and it is reached by opening it. On this route the whole view of that business runs through what the record chose to set down. The record settles what it recorded, exactly, with no argument and no ambiguity, and it settles nothing beyond that, however much a reader would like it to.

The first half of that is strong and the second half is firm. A published set of accounts was asked to present what a business spent on its people over a year, so it gives that figure to the rupee. What the maker down the road charges was never a transaction of the business writing, so the accounts do not give it. Rereading it for an hour adds nothing, in the same way that an hour with a household electricity bill leaves a reader knowing exactly what was known at the start. The document is not being coy. The figure was never in it.

The one property this act carries, and it is the exact opposite of the other's, is that a second reader can open the same thing and land on the same figure. The record sits still. The record does not remember its reader, does not change its mind, and gives the next person what it gave the first. Sitting still is the whole of its advantage, and an enormous one. Each kind of published document, and how far inside one a given figure sits, is covered separately, and the closing table names where.

ASKING SOMEBODY A question gets put to somebody An answer comes back A note is made of what was said The answer existed nowhere until it was written down WORKING FROM A RECORD A business writes the thing up It goes through a check It is published where it can be reached A second reader opens it and lands on the same figure
Each act runs to the same number of steps and the same length, and what separates them is the property printed in the band at the end of each run.
Try it out

1. Working from a record somebody else made carries one property that asking somebody never carries. Which one?

The same word names a document here and an act there. How can both be right?

Somewhere else in these notes the word primary is doing an entirely different job. There it describes a document, and it means two things about that document at once: that it is the original record of the thing rather than somebody's description of the thing, and that it was made by the accountable partyThe person or business answerable for the thing being recorded, as opposed to anybody merely reporting on it afterwards., the party answerable for what it says. On that reading a document is primary for precisely the fact it records and no further. The rule is a rule about paper.

Here the word is doing something else. Here it describes an act. Somebody went and asked, and wrote down the answer. Asking is a rule about behaviour, and on this route there very often is no paper until somebody makes some, so the rule says nothing at all about paper.

Neither use is wrong, and nothing in the word itself settles which of the two a sentence means. That is the awkward part. A sentence carrying the word looks equally sensible under either reading, so a reader supplies whichever one they happen to hold, and two people can agree word for word while meaning entirely different things. The check worth carrying away is a small one and it takes a second: whether the sentence is about a sheet of paper or about something somebody did. If the writer cannot tell, neither can the reader.

PRIMARY one word, drawn once, doing two jobs A PROPERTY OF A DOCUMENT a question an answer A PROPERTY OF AN ACT
One word drawn once with two arrows leaving it, landing on a sheet of paper and on an exchange, because nothing in the word itself says which of the two a sentence means.
Try it out

2. A colleague writes that the work included first-hand research, and what they did was read the written record of a meeting a business held. What has gone wrong in that sentence?

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What happens when both questions are asked at once?

Once two separate questions are seen hiding under one word, the sensible move is obvious: stop choosing between them and ask both. The two questions are short. Who brought this into existence, the analyst or somebody else? And what is it, the original record of the thing or somebody's account of that record?

Two questions with two answers each produce four combinations, and a classification is only honest if it carries as many cells as its tests actually produce. So four cells get drawn, and none of them is left empty for tidiness or shaded away as an odd case. Every one of the four turns out to be populated by items an analyst handles all the time.

Take them in turn. The analyst produced it and it is the original record: an answer from a head teacher about which of two makers she has come across, or a quotation slipThe written note of a price a supplier stated when asked, usually good for a short while rather than indefinitely. carrying what a paper mill said it would charge, written down after somebody rang and asked. Both are first hand, and neither leaves a document that a second reader can go and open. Somebody else produced it and it is the original record: an annual reportThe yearly account a business publishes of itself, carrying its audited figures alongside its own written description of the year., or a call transcriptThe written record of what was said on a call a business held, taken from the call itself rather than written up afterwards by a listener.. Both sit as close to the thing itself as a document ever sits, and both were reached entirely by working from something somebody else put out. The analyst produced it and it is an account of the record: the analyst's own note summarising what was read or what was told. Somebody else produced it and it is an account of the record: a broker note, a news report. Second hand on both counts.

The two facts that opened this guide now have addresses. The line from the written record of the meeting sits in the top right. The head teacher's answer sits in the top left. The two facts share a row and sit at opposite ends of it, and the opening question refused to settle for exactly that reason.

THE ANALYST PRODUCED IT SOMEBODY ELSE PRODUCED IT THE ORIGINAL RECORD AN ACCOUNT OF THE RECORD An answer from a head teacher A slip carrying a paper price obtained by asking First hand. Nothing to open. An annual report A call transcript First rank, reached second hand. An analyst's own note summing up what was read or was told An account of a record. A broker note A news report Second hand on both counts. Four cells, four populations, and none drawn empty for symmetry.
Asking who brought a thing into existence and asking what it is produces four cells, and every one of the four is populated by items a reader handles routinely.
Try it out

3. Apply the two tests to a slip carrying a paper price obtained by ringing a mill. Where does it land?

What falls out of the grid once every cell is filled?

Look at the top row and something awkward becomes visible that was invisible while the two ideas were being discussed one at a time. A call transcript is the original record, made by the party answerable for what it says, and it was reached by opening something that somebody else published and left lying about for anybody to read. The transcript is top rank on the paper question and thoroughly second hand on the act question, at the same moment, with no tension between those two readings whatever.

An answer from a head teacher is the mirror image. On the act question it is as first hand as anything ever gets: somebody asked, she answered, the answer was written down. On the paper question there is no paper, so the answer does not score at all. Nothing exists for a second reader to go and open, and no amount of care will make one exist.

So the two ideas cross rather than nest: neither is a subset of the other, and a single item can sit at the top of one and off the bottom of the other at the same time. That is the one sentence worth carrying away. The crossing is what makes the opening question unanswerable as asked, and what makes the two words dangerous when they are used loosely. A reader who believes one idea sits inside the other will read a claim about paper as a claim about work, or the reverse, and be completely confident either way.

NO DOCUMENT EXISTS AT ALL, BELOW THIS RULE A B THESE TWO CROSS neither idea sits inside the other THE PAPER high up, the original record worked from what was published asked and written down THE ACT: WHO WENT AND GOT IT A call transcript: top of the paper axis, second hand as an act A head teacher's answer: first hand as an act, no paper at all
Plotted against both tests at once, the two items travel in opposite directions and the line joining them cuts across the field rather than running down one side of it.
Try it out

4. The panel below opens on a call transcript. The control then moves to an answer from a head teacher. What will the marker on the grid do?

Play with it

Move an item through the grid and watch what a later reader would need

Six items, one control. The panel puts each one through the same two questions, drops it into the cell those answers produce, and redraws the record a later reader would have to be given in order to get back to it. None of the four cells ranks above another. The panel opens on a call transcript, the item most people file in the wrong place.

THE ANALYST DID SOMEBODY ELSE DID THE ORIGINAL RECORD AN ACCOUNT OF THE RECORD A call transcript lands here The marker moves. The cells do not light up and go out. WHAT THE ROUTES LEAVE BEHIND A reference precise enough to open the same page A name and a date precise enough to reach the same person Same size either way
1 head teacher2 quotation slip3 annual report4 call transcript5 the analyst's note6 news report

A call transcript

Held fixed at every position: the panel sorts and does not rank, so no cell is better than another and no item is scored.

Educational illustration. Every item shown is either published in these notes for invented businesses or is a named kind of document. A landing in the top left means the fact is first hand and leaves nothing a second reader can open. The emptiness is a property of the route rather than a weakness in it.

Try it out

5. An analyst has two facts to write up. One came out of a published document and one came out of a conversation. What goes beside each?

So what can each of them actually settle?

The grid sorts items. The grid does not yet settle what to do with any of them. For that, one question goes to both routes, and the two answers come back very differently. The question is the plainest test there is for whether a run of work can be stood up a second time: can a second reader get back to the same input?

Put it to a fact taken off a record. The record settles what it recorded, and a second reader goes to the same document, turns to the same place and finds the same figure sitting there. The answer to the test is yes, cleanly and completely, and this is what the whole apparatus of referencing exists to make possible.

Put to a fact taken off a conversation, the same question answers otherwise. The fact settles what the person asked could see from where they stand, and that is often the only thing anybody can see about it. And there is no document to go back to, so a second reader cannot get back to it. The answer is not a failure and it is not a shrug. A second reader can instead reach the same person and ask again, a different answer rather than no answer at all.

The asymmetry between the two answers produces every practical difference between the routes. The asymmetry decides what has to be written down, how much of the work survives being handed on, and what it costs to have been wrong. Rebuilding somebody else's figure out of the inputs they used is a discipline in its own right, covered elsewhere in these notes, and only that single test is borrowed from it.

CAN A SECOND READER GET BACK TO THE INPUT? a fact off a record a fact off a conversation the same figure OPEN THE SAME PAGE so a reference is what the note carries REACH THE SAME PERSON so a name and a date are what it carries
One test put to both routes returns two different answers of the same weight, an open document on one side and a person who can be reached on the other.
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What gets written beside each line?

Here the whole subject turns into something done on a Tuesday afternoon. Beside a fact that came off a record, write a citationA reference precise enough that a second reader can open the same thing and land on the same figure, rather than merely on the same document. exact enough that somebody can open the same thing and land on the same figure, not merely on the same document. Beside a fact that came out of a conversation, write who said it and when, precisely enough that somebody could reach that same person and put the question again.

The common ground between those two records is easy to miss under how different they look. Look at it anyway. Both of them are the route written down. Both of them give somebody picking the work up afterwards a way back, and a way back is the one thing that counts. The two records look nothing alike because the ways back to them are nothing alike, and a reader who believes only one of the two counts as a source will write one of them and leave the other blank.

Writing the route beside the figure is the whole of the change asked for, small and with a long reach. Both of those records amount, taken together, to provenanceThe record of where something came from and how it reached the analyst, kept alongside the thing itself rather than in somebody's memory.: the trail from the figure back to wherever it came from, kept in writing rather than in somebody's head. Grading information by how sensitive it is, and keeping hold of where each fact came from, is a subject in its own right, and the table below names where it is covered.

WHAT A FINISHED LINE LOOKS LIKE Employee costs for the year came to the figure shown the fact the published account, the page, the line the route back: open it A first load from a mill not used before takes weeks the fact which mill, who answered, which week the route back: ask again WHAT ONE CONVENTION PRODUCES INSTEAD a figure off a document the reference a fact off a conversation LEFT EMPTY
The two finished lines carry routes of equal weight, and the convention beneath them fills one half of the margin and leaves the other half of the work bare.

What does this look like when somebody is actually working?

Take a household job first. Everybody has done the household version. Somebody is collecting quotations for a wedding. The caterer hands over a printed rate card, and it goes into a drawer; six months later it comes out with the same rates still printed on it. A cousin also says, over the telephone, what she paid for the same number of guests last winter. The cousin's figure is what somebody actually paid rather than what somebody is asking, so it is worth as much as the rate card and possibly more. But written on the back of an envelope with no name and no month against it, in six months it has quietly become a rumour, and nobody can work out whether it was the cousin or the neighbour who said it, or which winter she meant.

Somebody assembling a working file on a business runs the identical problem at a larger scale, with the same fix. Every figure that came off a published document goes into the file with a reference against it. Every fact that came out of a conversation goes into the file with the person and the day against it. When the file gets picked up nine months later by somebody who was not there, the second sort is exactly as checkable as the first, and no other test matters. The half of a file that carries no route is not a smaller half. The bare half is the half that stops being evidence.

The note where half the facts carry a reference and half carry nothing, and nobody decided to do it

The person who does this is not careless. The person is careful, and follows the only convention anybody ever taught them: a source goes in a footnote. Watch what that convention does to work drawn from both routes at once.

There is an obvious place to point, so every figure that came off a document gets a reference, precise and checkable. A conversation offers nothing to point at, and the convention has no other slot to put anything in, so every fact that came out of one gets nothing at all. Nobody made a decision. The format made it for them. In the finished note the two halves of the work now look completely unlike each other: one half appears sourced and the other half appears merely asserted, and a reader has no way of telling that the second half was obtained rather than assumed.

The cost of that is exact rather than vague. On the day those field facts were obtained, every one of them was re-askable. Somebody knew the mill, the head teacher and the week. The name and the date were never written anywhere, so six months later not one of them is. A fact that could have been re-opened for the price of one telephone call has been made permanently unopenable by a formatting habit. Nothing was invented. Nothing was wrong. The work is now unrepeatable in precisely the half where repeating it would have been cheapest.

The second failure is the mirror of it, and it is a failure of the word rather than of the format. Somebody reads that a call transcript ranks near the top among documents, fastens that ranking to the act, and writes that the work included first-hand research. It did not. Somebody sat and read a document that a business had published. Reading one is an entirely respectable thing to have done, and it is not what the sentence says. A reader taking the sentence at face value believes a person was asked something, and no person was asked anything. Both failures come off the same root: two different properties wearing one word, and a reader ranking the two routes instead of recording each one.

THE CONVENTION AS IT IS USUALLY APPLIED ref 1 ref 2 ref 3 ref 4 Six months later: check half of it The bare lines were obtained, not assumed, and nothing in the note says so. THE SAME NOTE WITH BOTH ROUTES WRITTEN ref 1 ref 2 who, when ref 3 who, when ref 4 who, when Six months later: check all of it Nothing was added to the work itself. Only the route beside each line changed.
The same work written twice, once with a bare margin against every fact obtained by asking and once with the route recorded beside each of them.
Half the facts carried a reference and nobody decided. See what secondary research owes.

What does neither of them settle?

Setting two routes against each other invites a comfortable conclusion: between them they cover the ground. They do not.

A ledger for the register trade sits elsewhere in these notes, built by running the field through in a fixed order, one line at a time. Five lines went in. Two of them came back carrying a fact. Three of them came back carrying the words not establishedThe written outcome for a line that somebody actually chased and could not close, as against a line nobody reached., written out in full and at the same size as everything else on the sheet. A blank left blank reads as an oversight, and a blank written out reads as a result.

The two that stand rest on published figures. On the buying side, one named school group takes a large share of the year's sales, holds an even larger share of the money still owed, and pays a good deal slower than everybody else does. On the supply side of it, everything awkward gathers at one small counterparty: a machine servicing contractor that takes 4.0 per cent of what goes out to parties outside the business. Exactly one alternative to it is known of, and swapping it over runs to twenty six weeks. Set that beside the paper mill. The mill takes 46.0 per cent, comes with nine alternatives, and delivers inside two weeks. Both readings came off records somebody else made.

Now look at the three that did not stand, and at what each route could have done about them. No published fact describes how the two makers conduct themselves when they meet in the same district. The cost of building or buying a register works has never been put in print, and no maker has been recorded arriving or leaving. And nothing published anywhere names a thing beyond the register trade that a school would put that money into instead. Neither route settles any of those three, and saying so plainly is the honest floor of this whole comparison. Those lines are not an unfinished run. The three lines are the result of the run, and each can be filled the day somebody gets the fact. A line quietly stuffed with an average can never be filled that way.

THE LINE THE READING WHICH ROUTE SETTLED IT Rivalry between the makers NOT ESTABLISHED How easily a new seller could set up NOT ESTABLISHED What a buyer could turn to instead NOT ESTABLISHED The buying side One named buyer holds the terms Working from the record The input side The terms sit at one small counterparty Working from the record TWO OF FIVE STAND and the three empty cells are next year's shopping list
Three of the five lines carry the words written out at full size and an empty column beside them, because neither route settled any of the three.
Try it out

6. In the published ledger for this trade, three of the five lines are written out as not established after both routes have been considered. What does that show?

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Why does the cheap route quietly become the serious one?

The least flattering part of the subject explains far more bad work than carelessness ever will. The two routes do not cost the same, and the gap between them is enormous. One fact is already sitting in a file that opens in the next ten seconds and asks nothing but attention. The other requires working out who would know, finding a way of reaching them, catching them at a moment when they are willing to talk, and then writing down carefully what came back.

Now watch what that gap in effort turns into. Nobody ever sat down and decided that the cheaper route was the more serious one, and yet that is the ranking the effort quietly produces, in both directions at once. The route that is always within reach starts to look like the solid one purely because it is always within reach. The route that costs something gets left out of the write-up altogether, or, worse, gets filled in with a plausible figure that nobody actually supplied. Both of those are effort dressed up as judgement.

The same pattern is familiar from ordinary life, where it has nothing to do with evidence at all. The shop at the end of the lane is not better than the market two bus rides away. The shop is nearer. Without once asking which of those two things is doing the work in a decision about where to buy rice, a person ends up with a firm opinion about quality that was actually an opinion about distance. Neither of the two research routes sits above the other, and nothing about what either one costs to get changes that.

A FACT got by asking somebody A FACT read off a published record same size find somebody, reach them, get an answer, write it down open a file reads as the lighter one reads as the solid one WHAT ACTUALLY TIPPED THIS the price tags, and not one thing about the two facts
The two facts are drawn at identical size and the beam still tips, because what hangs on it is the cost of getting each one rather than anything about the facts.
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7. A field section gets written from the desk far more often than the accounts work does. What is the best explanation for that pattern?

Where this holds, and the one thing that varies

Does any of this change depending on where it is read?

Which cell an item falls into, and what a later reader needs in order to get back to it, behave identically everywhere. Neither route turns on a currency, a legal form or a place. The register maker carries the words Private Limited after its name and the head teachers work in a district, and neither of those details is holding up a single claim made here.

The one thing that genuinely varies from place to place is what gets published and when it appears, and that varies too much for any general statement to hold. A reader comparing two ways of getting a fact reaches for a calendar almost by reflex, and no calendar can be given. Without a calendar this much holds: one route waits on somebody else publishing and the other waits on somebody answering, so the two arrive on different clocks and neither clock is under the analyst's control. When any particular document becomes available is read at the source on the day it is needed, and the day of reading is written down beside whatever is taken from it. The rule stated above about every other fact applies here to itself.

Writing an Investment Thesis teaches you to state a view, name what would break it, and update when that evidence arrives.

What is worth carrying out of all of this?

Two things.

The first is one line, repeated word for word rather than reworded. The wording is the point. Write the route beside the figure, or the figure is not finished. Every reading of how a business works, every drawing of the field around it and every judgement about what its numbers mean depends on somebody having recorded where each fact came from. A figure carrying its route can be questioned, disputed and put right a year later. A year from now nobody will recall that a figure without one was made up, so it cannot be put right at all.

The second is a matter of what a demonstration can carry. Anjani Stationers Private Limited and Bhavani Register Works were made up so that a method could be shown on something small, along with the schools, the mills, the registers and the district. A method shown on a made-up case travels out of the case, and not one of its numbers does.

Which part of all this was the method and which part the furniture is worth separating. The two tests, the four cells, the question about whether a second reader can get back to the input, and the ledger with three lines written out rather than filled in: those are the method, and they hold for any business anywhere, of any size, in any trade. The register maker, the second maker and the school group are the furniture. The three were put there to show the method working on something small enough to hold in mind all at once. The distinction between method and furniture holds wherever a method is taught on an invented case.

WHAT WAS THE METHOD AND WHAT WAS THE FURNITURE THE METHOD THE FURNITURE The two tests, asked together The four cells they produce Can a second reader get back? The ledger with blanks written out Anjani Stationers, the register maker Bhavani Register Works, the second The school group that buys from them the paper, the district, the registers HOLDS FOR ANY BUSINESS ANYWHERE MADE UP FOR TEACHING, AND THERE IS NOTHING TO PULL
The two tests, the four cells, the re-opening question and the ledger of blanks travel to any business, and the businesses they were shown on do not exist.
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8. Every business used across these notes was made up for teaching. What follows for a reader who has just finished this guide?

Where this guide stops. Its subject is setting the two ways of getting a fact side by side, working out what each can settle, and deciding what gets written beside each. Ranking documents against one another, working either route at length, and valuing or rating anything are separate subjects. Fifteen more questions that bring somebody to this subject are settled elsewhere in these notes, and the table names where.

What a reader may have come forWhere it is covered
Putting one kind of evidence in order against another, from a published document down to somebody's passing commentarySource Hierarchy: Ranking Evidence From Filing to Commentary
What makes a record the original one, and who is answerable for what it saysPrimary Source: What Counts as One and Why It Ranks First
What a published set of accounts gives a reader, document by document, and how far inside one a figure sitsCompany Filings as a Research Source: What Each Document Offers
What a conversation reaches, what it will never reach, and how to put the questionPrimary Research: Talking to People Who Actually Know
Reading a yearly account properly, and the order worth reading it inAnnual Report: What Is Inside It and How to Read It in Order
What the written record of a call is actually evidence ofEarnings Call: Structure, Signals and What the Transcript Reveals
How a business's own slide deck differs from what it lodgesInvestor Presentation: What It Is For and How It Differs From the Filing
Rebuilding a number from the inputs somebody else used, so the work can be stood up againAudit Trail: Making Analytical Work Reproducible
Framing a question so that it can honestly come back either wayResearch Question: How to Frame One That Can Actually Be Answered
Recording what was assumed, separately from what was foundAssumption Register: Recording What Was Assumed and Why
Drawing the field a business sells into, before judging where it stands in itCompetitor Mapping: Drawing the Field Before Judging Position
Building a disagreement with a reading somebody has written downThe Variant View: Disagreeing With Consensus, With Reasons
Understanding how a business works before any price is put on itBusiness Analysis: Understanding a Company Before Valuing It
Where a question would put the person answering it in difficultyResearch Independence: The Conflicts and the Safeguards
Grading information by how sensitive it is, and keeping hold of where it came fromHandling Information: Classification by Sensitivity, and Provenance

Where were the borrowed items first written down?

Three rows below and not an institution among them. Nobody publishes a rule about how asking somebody compares with reading something, so there is no authority to point at. The rows carry instead the place each borrowed item was first written down, and anybody who wants to argue with a cell of the grid can go and read the material that cell was populated from.

Named forWhere that was readSite
The two ways a fact reaches an analyst at all, the field facts and the route written against each, and the observation that the two do not cost the same to obtain. Two of those facts are lifted into the grid above as items to sort. These notes, on setting one business against the field it sells intofinmaverick.com
The five-line ledger reproduced above, both lines that stand and all three written out as not established. It carries the count of five, the reading on the buying side, the terms sitting at one small counterparty, and the statement that nothing published settles the other three by either route. These notes, on working a field through in a fixed orderfinmaverick.com
The single clause saying that a figure can sit at one of several distances inside a published document. The working of it is covered under the source named beside it. These notes, on what each company document offers a readerfinmaverick.com

Anjani Stationers Private Limited and Bhavani Register Works are invented.
Educational material. Not advice on any investment, tax, budget or market position.

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