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Financial Analyst Program · CoreTrack
1Financial Accounting, Reporting & Analysis
iAccounting System and Standards
Financial AccountingDebits and CreditsAccrual and Cash AccountingAccounting Policies, Estimates and…The Matching PrincipleDouble-Entry AccountingGoing ConcernInd AS and IFRSWhy Two Honest Companies…
iiFinancial Statement Architecture
The Three Financial StatementsConsolidated Financial StatementsStandalone and Consolidated Statements…How to Read a…How to Perform Trend…Which Accounting Rules Apply…
iiiIncome Statement, Profitability and Tax
The Income StatementRevenue vs Income vs ProfitHow to Read an Income StatementThe Profit LadderEBITDA and EBIT Compared,…EBIT vs EBT vs PATOperating ExpenditureTax-Loss CarryforwardWhy a Company's Effective…Deferred TaxDiluted EPSEffective Tax Rate
ivBalance Sheet and Capital Employed
The Balance SheetAsset TypesCapital EmployedReturn on Capital EmployedLiabilitiesBook ValueRetained EarningsOff-Balance-Sheet FinancingHow to Read a Balance SheetTangible Net Worth
vCash Flow and Liquidity
The Cash Flow StatementOperating, Investing and Financing…Operating Cash FlowProfit vs Cash FlowCash Flow From Operations vs EBITDARevenue Growth vs Operating Cash FlowHow to Read a Cash Flow StatementHow to Reconcile Cash…
viRevenue, Receivables and Working Capital
The Working Capital CycleThe Working Capital CycleReturn on Invested CapitalHow Working Capital Affects Cash FlowAccrued and Deferred RevenueRevenueHow to Analyse Revenue QualityAccounts PayableAccounts ReceivableExpected Credit Loss
viiInventory, Cost Accounting and Margins
Cost AbsorptionInventoryCost of Goods SoldFIFO vs Weighted Average CostAmortised Cost vs Fair ValueInventory Write-DownsMargin AnalysisContribution MarginOperating LeverageGross Profit vs Gross MarginHow to Analyse Profit MarginsHow to Interpret Operating…
viiiFixed Assets, Leases and Intangibles
DepreciationDepreciation MethodsAmortisation vs DepreciationAsset ImpairmentCapital ExpenditureAsset Efficiency and Capital IntensityProperty, Plant and EquipmentIntangible AssetsOperating Lease vs Finance…How to Analyse Capex…Why Capitalising Costs Increases…
ixDebt, Equity and Financial Instruments
Equity on the Balance SheetDebt TypesNet Debt and LeverageDebt vs Equity Accounting ClassificationHow to Analyse Debt…Convertible BondsInterest in the AccountsShare CapitalShare DilutionHybrid Instruments
xConsolidation and Business Combinations
ControlSubsidiaryGoodwillAssociate CompanyJoint Venture vs Associate…Intercompany EliminationsThe Equity MethodHow to Analyse Group…
xiCash, Investments and Financial Assets
Cash and Cash EquivalentsHow to Analyse Cash…The Fair Value HierarchyHow to Interpret a…Financial Asset ClassificationMarketable Securities and Short-Term Investments
xiiFinancial Ratios and Performance Diagnostics
Return on CapitalDuPont AnalysisHow to Perform Common-Size AnalysisDebt to EquityLiquidity RatiosLeverage and Coverage RatiosReturn on Equity and the DuPont DecompositionWhich Financial Ratios Matter…
xiiiEarnings Quality, Red Flags and Forensics
Earnings QualityHow to Prepare for…Channel StuffingEarnings ManagementHow to Analyse Related-Party…How to Spot Accounting…Why Frequent Exceptional Items…What an Auditor Change…
xivAnnual Reports, Notes and Disclosure Reading
Notes to the AccountsManagement Discussion and AnalysisSegment ReportingShareholding PatternPro Forma FinancialsAnnual Report vs Investor…How to Read an Annual Report
xvAudit, Assurance and Reporting Reliability
The Statutory Audit and the AuditorAudit MaterialityEmphasis of MatterFinancial RestatementInternal AuditLimited ReviewKey Audit MattersInternal Controls Over Financial ReportingThe Audit OpinionAuditor Independence
2Business, Industry & Company Analysis
iBusiness Fundamentals and Models
The Business EcosystemThe Business ModelStakeholdersThe Business Life CyclePlatform BusinessesHow to Build a…The Value NetworkMonetisationUnit EconomicsThe Profit PoolTake RateB2B vs B2C
iiRevenue and Pricing
The Revenue ModelRevenue Growth vs Monetisation…Pricing PowerRecurring RevenueAverage Revenue Per UserARPU vs Average Order ValuePrice DiscriminationGross Margin vs Contribution MarginFixed Costs vs Variable Costs
iiiOperating Model and Supply Chain
The Operating ModelThe Value ChainThroughputThe Supply ChainVertical IntegrationVertical vs Horizontal IntegrationProcurementCapacity UtilisationJust-in-Time vs Just-in-Case InventoryMake vs Buy
ivCustomers and Brands
Brand EquityCustomer LoyaltyCustomer Segments and the JourneyCustomer EconomicsHow to Analyse Customer…Distribution ChannelsCustomer Acquisition Cost
vCompetitive Advantage and Moats
The Sources of Competitive…Competitive RivalryEconomies of Scale and…Network EffectsSwitching CostsCost Leadership vs DifferentiationHow to Test Whether a Moat Is Eroding
viIndustry Structure and Sector Behaviour
Industry TypesConsolidation and FragmentationSubstitutesBuyer PowerSupplier PowerThe Industry Life CycleHerfindahl-Hirschman IndexSector vs IndustryCompany Analysis vs Industry AnalysisCyclical vs Defensive SectorHow to Apply Porter's…How to Analyse Competitive…
viiMarket Size and Addressable Market
Market SizeMarket Concentration vs Market ShareTop-Down vs Bottom-Up Market SizingDemand DriversThe Adoption CurveGrowth DriversMarket FragmentationMarket ShareHow to Interpret Market Share Changes
viiiInnovation and Technology Shift
InnovationResearch and DevelopmentTechnology Adoption and DiffusionThe Product Life CycleProduct Innovation vs Process InnovationDigital TransformationCannibalisationDisruptive InnovationThe Technology S-Curve
ixCorporate and Business Strategy
Corporate and Business Strategy ComparedHow to Build Business…How Execution Risk Can…Organic and Inorganic Growth ComparedGrowth Investment vs Capital ReturnOrganisation Design and TransformationHorizontal vs Conglomerate DiversificationCentralised vs Decentralised OrganisationCompany Research vs Investment ResearchHow to Separate Facts,…
xManagement and Governance Quality
Management QualityFounder-Led vs Professional ManagementThe PromoterThe BoardInstitutional OwnershipPromoter Ownership vs Institutional…The Agency ProblemIndependent DirectorsInsider OwnershipHow to Analyse Ownership…How Capital Allocation Shapes…
xiStrategic and Business Risk
Business RiskPlatform vs Pipeline BusinessAsset-Light vs Asset-Heavy vs…Commodity vs Branded BusinessHow to Write a…The Business Risk RegisterStrategy in PracticeStrategic Risk vs Financial RiskHow to Evaluate a…How to Build a…
xiiBusiness Research Method
Business AnalysisCompany Filings as a Research SourceCompetitor MappingThe Variant ViewPrimary ResearchPrimary vs Secondary Research

Strategy in Practice: From Position to Objective to Initiative

A strategic risk is a risk to a stated position, so with nothing written down there is nothing for it to be a risk to. Position, objective and initiative narrow at each step: what the business decided to be, the checkable outcome that follows, and the money committed to reach it. One invented register maker records the last of the three, at Rs 24,40,000/-, and neither of the first two.

Why is a chain about strategy sitting in a reading order about what could break a business?

A strategic risk bites on the position a business picked out for itself. Business Risk: The Risks That Sit Inside the Operation works that position out at length. So with no position written down there is nothing for it to be a risk to, and the first move in measuring a strategic risk is going to look for the sentence rather than measuring anything at all.

The missing sentence is the whole reason a chain running position, objective, initiative belongs beside the risks that sit inside an operation rather than beside the choices a management makes. The chain is not here to teach anybody how to choose. The chain is here because it produces the stated position every other measurement on a strategic risk has to point at.

The chain runs in one line. Three links, each narrower than the one above it, and the honest question is which of the three one business actually records. The accounts record the third link exactly, to the rupee, and nothing published anywhere in these notes records the first two.

The shape of that is familiar from ordinary life. Somebody asks a friend whether the move to the new flat went well. The friend can produce the removal bill to the last rupee, dated, with the van company's name on it. Asked what the move was for, the friend offers a shrug and three sentences that do not agree with each other. The bill is exact and the reason was never written down, and nobody involved did anything careless. An exact bill beside a missing reason is where almost every business is standing when a reader arrives with a question about strategy.

One business runs through the chain. Anjani Stationers Private Limited, an invented manufacturer, turns paper into hard-bound registers, and every one of them goes to an institution inside a single city. Across one published year it raised its standing baseCost that lands every year at the same size however many units go out of the door. Space, people on a monthly wage and the wearing down of machines already paid for all sit in here. by Rs 24,40,000/-, and that figure is exact, dated and sitting on the face of a statement. The purpose the money served is a different kind of question, and the difference between an exact figure and a stated purpose is the whole subject below.

Try it out

1. Why does a chain running from position to objective to initiative sit inside a reading order about what could break a business?

Strategic Positioning

A position is what the business decided to be, for whom, against what alternative, and therefore what it decided not to do. The clause about what the business decided not to do is not decoration. A position that rules nothing out is not a position, it is a description. Anything that can be said of the business and of every rival at once has ruled nothing out and has decided nothing.

Now work the case, and work it the only honest way, by putting what is actually published beside what a position would need. Six things about Anjani Stationers are on the record. The business makes hard-bound registers. The business sells to institutions in one city. The business carries 36 accounts. The business has held one relationship with the Sunrise Public School group for eleven years. The business realises Rs 108.00/- a register. And the record states plainly, with no number against it, that the name over its door is known to head teachers right across the district.

Read that list twice and then say the hard thing plainly. Every one of those six is a fact about the trading the business carries on, and not one of them is a sentence saying what the business decided to be. Eleven years of steady supply to one school group is a pattern in a record. A pattern in a record and a decision in a document are two different objects, and everything below turns on the difference between them.

Now the distinction worth carrying away, said once and said flat. A position is either written down or it is inferred, and an inferred position belongs to whoever inferred it. There is no third state where a position exists quietly in the way the business behaves and can be recovered by a careful enough reader. Recovery is authorship.

The everyday version runs like this. A shop on a busy street has sold the same three things for twenty years. Asked about the shop's purpose, the person behind the counter gives three different answers on three different days: a convenience for the flats above, a specialist in the one line it stocks deepest, whatever the last customer happened to ask for. The twenty years are real. The sentence is not there, and no amount of watching the shop produces it.

What these notes publish about this business THE PUBLISHED ROW WHAT KIND OF THING IT IS It makes hard-bound registers a fact about what it does It sells to institutions in one city a fact about what it does It carries 36 accounts a fact about what it does Eleven years with the Sunrise Public School group a fact about what it does It realises Rs 108.00/- a register a fact about what it does Head teachers across the district know the name a fact about what it does WHAT THE BUSINESS DECIDED TO BE SIX ROWS FILLED. THE ROW A STRATEGIC RISK WOULD ATTACH TO IS THE EMPTY ONE.
Every published row is a fact about what the business does, and not one of them is a sentence saying what it decided to be.
Try it out

2. These notes record that the business makes hard-bound registers, sells to institutions in one city, carries 36 accounts and has held one school relationship for eleven years. Is that a position?

Strategic Objective

An objective is a position turned into something somebody could check. An objective takes one thing the position rules in and gives it a quantity, a unit the business already counts, and a date. An objective that cannot come back false is not an objective. The falsifiability test does more work than any list of qualities. An objective is also the link a reader is most likely to think they already understand, so the anatomy is worth pulling apart properly.

The quantity has to be a number rather than a direction. More, better, stronger and deeper are directions. Directions name which way somebody would like to travel and never say when the travelling is done. A direction cannot be met and cannot be missed, so it survives every year unharmed.

The unit has to be something the business already counts. An objective stated in a unit nobody measures cannot be checked even in principle, however precise the number attached to it looks. Anjani Stationers counts registers, accounts and rupees. Only those three units are available. Anything requiring a survey nobody runs, or a score nobody keeps, is a number with no meter behind it.

And the date has to be a date. This is the part everybody drops. An objective with no date cannot be false yet, and a thing that cannot be false yet can never be false at all. The moment of judgement keeps moving ahead of the judge. A date is what converts an intention into something a colleague can hold the drafter to.

Now report the case, without hedging. Nothing published anywhere in these notes states an objective for this business. The absence was not assumed from the shape of the record. A search ran through these notes for the phrase, using a pattern first proved against a phrase known to be present, and it came back with nothing at all. So the row is empty, and empty is a finding rather than a gap in the reading.

How should a note fill that row? The word unanswered, at full size, on its own line, in the same weight as the rows that are filled. Not a smaller font, not a footnote, not a dash. And then the reader knows precisely what to request next, being one sentence that carries a number, a unit the business already counts, and a date. A request like that can be answered in a minute or refused in a minute, and either reply is worth more than a paragraph of inference.

The conditions that would have to be true for a commitment to pay, stated before the money moves and checkable afterwards, are set out under How to Evaluate a Strategic Initiative Before It Is Taken.

The household version is short. One household says it wants to save more this year. The household next door says it wants Rs 1,00,000/- put aside by the end of the school year. Twelve months later only the second one can be wrong, and only the second one ever produced a conversation in March about whether the saving was on track.

The four cells an objective has to fill, and the same four for this business WHAT AN OBJECTIVE MUST CONTAIN A QUANTITY a number, never a direction such as more or better or stronger A UNIT something already counted here: registers, accounts, rupees A DATE a day it falls due, so the moment of judging stops moving ahead A WAY TO BE FALSE a reading that would show it was not met, available to a stranger WHAT THESE NOTES STATE FOR THIS BUSINESS NOTHING PUBLISHED ANYWHERE IN THESE NOTES STATES AN OBJECTIVE FOR THIS BUSINESS AN OBJECTIVE THAT CANNOT COME BACK FALSE IS NOT AN OBJECTIVE.
An objective needs a quantity, a unit the business already counts and a date, and nothing published in these notes states one for this business.
Try it out

3. Which of these would be an objective rather than an intention?

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Strategic Initiative

An initiative is an objective turned into a commitment of money, people or time that somebody signed. An initiative is the narrowest of the three links and the only one anybody has to put a name to a document for. An initiative is also the one link these notes record in full, so the figures below can be worked in the open rather than described.

Across one published year the standing base at Anjani Stationers went to Rs 74,00,000/- from Rs 49,60,000/-. The rise is Rs 24,40,000/-, or 49.19 per cent on top of what the first year carried. The accounts set down in six words where the money went, and those six words are the whole of what anybody said: people, space, and a binding operation the business bought into.

Now the part that teaches. Not one of the three is priced. Three things are named and one total is exact, so the cell is a single exact figure sitting above three empty rows. Amounts against accounting headsThe labelled buckets a set of accounts sorts spending into, so that similar costs are added up together. A head records where an amount was booked, and it is set by the rules of presentation rather than by anybody's reason for spending. do exist in these notes, assembled elsewhere and closing to the rupee, and those workings state in their own words that no line anywhere states the split, that an estimate is not a disclosure, and that a price against a head is still not a purpose. No head-level amount appears here. Setting three amounts beside three named purposes is exactly the mapping nobody published, and a reader would make it in their head whatever the caption underneath said.

Now to why standing cost is the right place for an initiative to land. A standing cost is the answer to for how long as well as to how much. The cost arrives every year until something is undone. A one-off payment closes on its own. A rent, a salaried person and a floor of space renew themselves quietly at the start of every year with nobody signing anything a second time. A qualification travels wherever the figure travels. The Rs 74,00,000/- is itself temporary, and a one-off item sitting inside it drops away.

One further published fact belongs here and is quoted exactly as it stands. The binding operation is Chitra Binding Works Private Limited, in which Anjani Stationers took a seventy per cent holdingA stake in a second company big enough to control it, bought outright. The buyer books what it handed over, and the stake is then something it holds, which is a different thing from trading. for Rs 21,00,000/-, with a guarantee of Rs 8,00,000/- over that company's borrowing disclosed rather than recognisedAn amount described in the notes to a set of accounts without being carried as a figure in the statements themselves. It is set out, and it is not added into any total.. The temptation runs the other way, so say the next thing immediately and in the open. The Rs 21,00,000/- is an investing payment and the Rs 24,40,000/- is an operating cost, so neither one is any part of the other, and no subtraction across them is available to anybody. The two live in different statements, and a subtraction across that line produces a number belonging to neither.

The household picture runs like this. A household takes a bigger flat and can name exactly the three things it was taken for: a room for the grandmother, a place to put the sewing machine, and a shorter walk to the school. Asked what any one of the three cost, the household has no answer. One cheque covered all of it. The total is exact and the split was never made, and no amount of staring at the cheque produces it.

The standing base across two published years, and what the rise went on YEAR ONE Rs 49,60,000/- YEAR TWO Rs 49,60,000/- carried over Rs 74,00,000/- in all Rs 24,40,000/- 0 Rs 40,00,000/- Rs 80,00,000/- Rs 74,00,000/- LESS Rs 49,60,000/- IS Rs 24,40,000/-, BEING 49.19 PER CENT MORE AND WHAT THE RECORD SAYS EACH OF THE THREE COST PEOPLE SPACE A BINDING OPERATION IT BOUGHT INTO ONE TOTAL IS EXACT. THREE THINGS ARE NAMED. NOT ONE OF THE THREE IS PRICED, AND THE SPLIT ACROSS THEM IS PUBLISHED NOWHERE AT ALL.
One total is exact and three things are named, and not one of the three is priced, so the cell is an exact figure sitting above three empty rows.
Try it out

4. The standing base rose Rs 24,40,000/- and the accounts name people, space and a binding operation the business bought into. What does the record say each of the three cost?

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What happens when the three links are read from the bottom upwards?

The three links are usually drawn top down. Somebody inside the business would build them in that order. A reader outside travels the other way, and the other way is where the chain stops being three definitions.

Start at the bottom. The initiative has an exact price, Rs 24,40,000/-, sitting on the face of a statement, dated, closing exactly against the year's other movements. There is nothing soft about it. One step up sits the objective, and the row is blank. One step further up sits the position, and that row is blank too.

The only link in this chain that leaves a trace in a set of accounts is the last one, and that is why almost every business can state what it spent and not what it was for. The reason is that each link is checked somewhere different. A position is checked against a document the business wrote about itself. An objective is checked against a count the business already keeps. An initiative is checked against the cost base. A commitment that arrives every year is exactly what a standing cost is. Two of those three places are nowhere near a set of accounts.

The generalisation has to be said carefully. An account of strategy usually overreaches on exactly this sentence. The pattern is a property of what accounts record. The pattern is not a claim about how businesses think. A business with all three links written down would leave exactly the same trace in its accounts as one with none of them written down. No statement anywhere carries a row for what somebody decided to be. So the blanks are invisible in the numbers, in both directions at once, and a reader who believes they can spot a thoughtful business by the shape of its cost base is reading something that is not there.

The everyday version is sitting in any inbox. A bank statement shows every payment made across a year, to the paisa, with dates and payees. The statement records not one reason for any of them. The statement is complete and it answers a different question from the one the reader brought to it.

Each link is narrower than the one above it, and each is checked somewhere else CHECKED AGAINST A DOCUMENT THE BUSINESS WROTE ABOUT ITSELF CHECKED AGAINST A COUNT THE BUSINESS ALREADY KEEPS CHECKED AGAINST THE COST BASE, IN A SET OF ACCOUNTS POSITION: WHAT THE BUSINESS DECIDED TO BE BLANK for whom, against what alternative, and therefore what it will not do OBJECTIVE: THE CHECKABLE OUTCOME BLANK a quantity, a unit already counted, and a date INITIATIVE: THE MONEY COMMITTED RECORDED IN FULL Rs 24,40,000/- of standing base, dated, and sitting on the face of a statement ONLY THE INNERMOST OF THE THREE IS CHECKED AGAINST A SET OF ACCOUNTS.
Each link is narrower than the one above it and each is checked somewhere different, and only the innermost of the three is checked against a set of accounts.
Try it out

5. A reader with only this business's accounts can see the commitment exactly and neither of the other two links at all. What does that tell them about the business?

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What did the commitment actually leave behind?

Here is why the two blank rows are a question about risk rather than a complaint about somebody's filing. The commitment landed, and the year closes on it exactly.

ContributionRevenue less only those costs that move up and down with the number of units. Whatever survives that one subtraction is what there is to meet everything else with. rose from Rs 1,02,60,000/- to Rs 1,15,50,000/-, up Rs 12,90,000/-. The standing base went up by Rs 24,40,000/-. And operating profitThe result of a year's trading, struck before any interest and before any tax. Take the standing costs away from contribution and this is what is sitting there. fell from Rs 53,00,000/- to Rs 41,50,000/-, down Rs 11,50,000/-. Rs 12,90,000/- of extra contribution less Rs 24,40,000/- of extra standing cost lands on exactly Rs 11,50,000/-, with no residue left over for any other cause.

The subtraction is a fact about the year. Now to what the commitment did to the exposure. A larger standing base means the same movement in revenue now lands harder on the result. The distance is published directly: it stood at 1.94 in the first year and at 2.78 in the second. The decomposition is published too, and it is the part worth slowing down for. Pin the standing base to the Rs 49,60,000/- the first year carried, then feed in the second year's revenue and contribution: the operating result comes out at Rs 65,90,000/- and the reading at 1.75. So revenue growth on its own was pushing the reading down, from 1.94 to 1.75, and the rise in standing cost then carried the whole way from 1.75 to 2.78.

Two qualifications travel with those readings and neither is optional. The division of cost into a moving part and a standing part is an estimate. Nobody disclosed it, and each reading printed here sits on top of it. And these notes say plainly that the Rs 74,00,000/- will not stay at that size. One item inside it arrived only once. Print the reading bare, with neither sentence beside it, and an estimate has quietly been promoted into something somebody disclosed.

One more thing, and it stops a common double count. The distance from the point where contribution would exactly meet the standing base is published too. The two readings are not two findings. Multiply the pair together and the answer comes out at exactly one, whatever the revenue and whatever the base. Each reading is the other one turned over. A note carrying both as two agreeing measurements has written one thing down twice, in two different voices. Only one of the two appears here.

A commitment taken without a written position still changes how hard every later movement lands, and that change is the strategic risk. A distance is not a forecast. A reading of 2.78 says how hard a movement would land if one arrived, and says nothing whatever about whether one is on the way.

Think of a household that took a bigger rent for reasons nobody now remembers. The reasons went; the rent stayed. Every short month since has been heavier than a short month used to be, and the heaviness does not consult the reasoning at all.

Move the standing base alone, and the distance a movement travels moves with it 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 TIMES OVER THE TWO STOPS THESE NOTES PUBLISH Rs 49,60,000/- reads 1.75, on an operating result of Rs 65,90,000/- Rs 74,00,000/- reads 2.78, on an operating result of Rs 41,50,000/- Rs 40,00,000/- Rs 65,00,000/- Rs 90,00,000/- Rs 49,60,000/- Rs 74,00,000/- SIZE OF THE STANDING BASE, WITH REVENUE AND CONTRIBUTION HELD AT THE PUBLISHED SECOND YEAR BOTH READINGS REST ON A SPLIT THESE NOTES CALL AN ESTIMATE RATHER THAN A DISCLOSURE.
Holding the published revenue and contribution still and moving only the standing base takes the distance from 1.75 to 2.78, so the commitment alone moved it.
Try it out

6. The panel holds revenue and contribution at the published second year and drags the standing base alone. What happens to the distance a revenue movement travels into the result as the base rises?

Play with it

Drag the standing base and watch the trace move, with nothing on the control saying why

One thing moves here: the size of the standing base. Everything else is held at the published second year and held there at every setting. The hardest claim in the chain becomes visible here: the trace a commitment leaves is decided by the size of the commitment and by nothing it was for. Look at the control and notice what is missing from it: no purpose, no position, no objective, and no statement anywhere that any setting is more likely than another.

Standing base of Rs 74,00,000/-, the published second year WHERE THE PUBLISHED REVENUE OF Rs 2,70,00,000/- GOES AT THIS SETTING MOVES WITH THE COUNT Rs 1,54,50,000/- STANDS STILL Rs 74,00,000/- WHAT IS LEFT, THE RESULT Rs 41,50,000/- THE DISTANCE A MOVEMENT IN REVENUE TRAVELS INTO THAT RESULT 2.78 times over 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 This axis is drawn once and never rescales, and it starts at 1.5 rather than at zero. Read the numbers, not the heights alone. THE SETTING: SIZE OF THE STANDING BASE Rs 49,60,000/- published, reads 1.75 Rs 74,00,000/- published, reads 2.78 Rs 40,00,000/- Rs 90,00,000/- NOTHING ON THIS CONTROL SAYS WHAT THE BASE WAS COMMITTED TO, OR WHY.

Rs 74,00,000/- standing base, operating result Rs 41,50,000/-, distance 2.78 times over

At this setting: a business keeping Rs 1,15,50,000/- of contribution and carrying a standing base of Rs 74,00,000/- would report an operating result of Rs 41,50,000/-, so a movement in revenue would travel into that result 2.78 times over. That particular reading is one these notes already carry, so the panel is repeating it here. Nothing on this control says what the base was committed to or why.

Held still at every setting: revenue at the published Rs 2,70,00,000/- and contribution at the published Rs 1,15,50,000/-, both from the second published year.

Educational illustration. Two spots on this track were read off these notes instead of worked out here, being the pinned stops at Rs 49,60,000/- and Rs 74,00,000/-, along with the result and the reading standing at each. Anywhere else on the track, what appears is a division the panel carries out in whole rupees, on amounts these notes already hold. Somebody estimated the cut between the half that moves with the count and the half that does not, nobody disclosed it, and every figure here inherits that; these notes add that the second year's Rs 74,00,000/- shrinks once a one-off item falls out of it. Sliding the pointer picks a size and asserts nothing beyond that, so no business is said to carry any particular setting and no setting is called likelier than its neighbour. The travel distance and the gap between contribution and the standing base are one measurement wearing two faces, so only one face is shown. And the track ends at Rs 90,00,000/- for a reason: with the base pushed right up to the whole of contribution, no remainder survives for anything to be measured against, so nothing appears there and nothing ought to.

Common Size and Trend Analysis teaches you to make three years of statements comparable and see what moved.

What can a reader honestly do when the first two rows come back blank?

Say the ordinary thing first, and say it early. Nothing that follows works without it. Almost nobody writes the position down. Anjani Stationers is not unusual, and nothing in these notes says anybody was careless. A thin paper trail behind a real decision is the normal condition of small and medium businesses everywhere, and treating it as a character flaw would convict most of the trading world on the same evidence.

So what is left for a reader? Two things, and both of them are real work rather than consolation.

First, ask for the sentence. If a business describes a commitment as strategic, then the position it is strategic to either exists somewhere in writing or it does not, and finding out which takes one question. The question costs a minute and has only two possible answers, and both of them are worth having. A produced document changes the whole reading. A shrug is also information, and it is information obtained rather than assumed.

Second, if there is no sentence, record that the commitment is being measured against nothing, and write it at full size. Not as a caveat in smaller type at the bottom. Not as a phrase hedged into the middle of a paragraph about something else. A row that says the position is not stated is a finding about what is available to be checked, and the next reader needs it in the same weight as everything else in the note.

One escape has to be closed, and it is the one an analyst reaches for. Reconstructing the position from what the business spent produces a sentence, and the sentence is the analyst's own. Every subsequent test of the business against it is a test of that drafting. An inferred position is the analyst's own sentence, and testing a commitment against it measures the analyst. There is no version of this where enough care converts an inference into somebody else's decision.

The tests that could honestly have been run before the money moved are set out under How to Evaluate a Strategic Initiative Before It Is Taken.

The human version is one sentence long. Ask a friend why they moved cities and they answer with the cost of the van.

Try it out

7. An analyst cannot find a written position, so writes one from what the business spent and then tests the business against it. What is wrong with that?

Putting this to work: the four questions that follow any commitment called strategic

A business may be met from outside as an equity research reader, appraised for a banking mandate, or worked on from inside while the case for a commitment is drafted. In all three the same four questions get asked, in this sequence, with none of them skipped. Answering each properly in turn is what does the work; reciting them as a list does nothing at all.

One, what position is this protecting or moving, and where is that sentence written? The document has to be named. If the answer is that it is not written anywhere, the row reads not stated and it stays exactly that size in the note.

Two, what objective does it serve, in what quantity, in what unit the business already counts, and by when? Same rule about blanks. A quantity with no unit anybody meters is not an answer, and a date left out is the commonest way this row gets filled with nothing while looking full.

Three, what exactly is committed, and for how long? Take this from the cost base rather than from the description. A commitment that arrives every year is a standing cost whatever anybody chose to call it. For this business that line reads Rs 24,40,000/- more standing base, arriving annually until something is undone.

Four, what does it do to how hard a later movement lands? Read as one measurement rather than as two agreeing ones. Here it reads 1.94 moving to 2.78, with the published qualification about the estimate carried alongside it.

A commitment with lines one and two blank is not a failed strategy, it is a commitment with nothing to be measured against. And notice what no line on this card reaches for. None of the four wants an odds, a frequency or a chance, and leaving that out was deliberate rather than careless.

The four lines, in fixed order, filled in for this commitment THE LINE WHAT IT COMES BACK AS HERE 1. WHAT POSITION, AND WHERE WRITTEN? name the document NOT STATED 2. WHAT OBJECTIVE, AND BY WHEN? quantity, unit already counted, date NOT STATED 3. WHAT IS COMMITTED, FOR HOW LONG? read off the cost base Rs 24,40,000/- more standing base, arriving every year until something is undone 4. HOW HARD DOES A MOVEMENT LAND NOW? one measurement, not two 1.94 moving to 2.78, with the published qualification carried alongside it 5. AND HOW LIKELY IS IT? no line on this card asks this, and that is the point LINES ONE AND TWO BLANK IS NOT A FAILED STRATEGY. IT IS NOTHING TO MEASURE AGAINST.
A commitment with the first two lines blank is not a failed strategy, it is a commitment with nothing to be measured against.

The strategy that was read off a cost base, and the arithmetic that then confirmed it

The analyst writing up the register maker's year needs one line about strategy. Every fact to hand is published and every one of them is correct. The standing base rose Rs 24,40,000/-. The accounts name people, space and a binding operation the business bought into. A seventy per cent holding in that operation was acquired for Rs 21,00,000/-. The analyst writes the sentence that seems to fall straight out of it: the strategy is to take the binding stage in-house.

The sentence reads well. The sentence is consistent with every published fact. Nobody wrote it anywhere, and the analyst is now the author of the business's strategy.

Then the analyst does the responsible thing and tests it. Extra contribution of Rs 12,90,000/- less extra standing cost of Rs 24,40,000/- is exactly the Rs 11,50,000/- the profit fell by. The year closes with no residue at all. So the note records that the strategy is confirmed as the cause of the year's result, with nothing left over for anything else.

So what went astray here? The diagnosis that first suggests itself is not the right one. No number was misread. The subtraction is correct and remains correct. The fault is that the test could not have failed. Contribution, standing cost and operating profit are three lines from one statement that are defined in terms of each other. The subtraction would have closed to the rupee whatever the money had been spent on, and whether or not any strategy existed at all. The analyst wrote a sentence, checked it against arithmetic that agrees with every sentence, and filed the agreement as evidence.

Six months later the note is used to judge whether the commitment worked. The judgement is made against the analyst's own sentence, so it measures how well the analyst wrote rather than what the business decided. Nobody reading the note can tell. The sentence and the arithmetic sit side by side in it and both of them are correct.

The genuinely uncomfortable part is this. A correct note would run shorter, and would look like less work. The shorter note records the commitment to the rupee, records that no position and no objective is published anywhere, and stops. The note with the strategy sentence in it looks like understanding. The one that looks like understanding contains exactly one sentence nobody supplied.

The fix is not a better inference. Before testing a strategy against a set of accounts, the author of the strategy has to be written down, and if that author is the analyst, the test is not available.

The note as written, with its own two lines set out THIS CLOSES WHATEVER THE SENTENCE SAYS THE SENTENCE The strategy is to take the binding stage in-house. WRITTEN BY THE ANALYST THE TEST, RULED IN AND ENTIRELY CORRECT Rs 12,90,000/- more contribution, less Rs 24,40,000/- more standing cost, is exactly the Rs 11,50,000/- the profit fell by. No residue. Conclusion: the strategy is confirmed as the cause of the year's result. THIS TEST COULD NOT HAVE FAILED THE ONE ROW THAT WAS AVAILABLE INSTEAD The standing base rose Rs 24,40,000/-, on people, space and a binding operation the business bought into. No position and no objective is published anywhere. THE NOTE THAT LOOKS LIKE UNDERSTANDING HOLDS ONE SENTENCE NOBODY SUPPLIED.
The subtraction closes to the rupee because three lines from one statement are defined in terms of each other, so it would have closed whatever the money had been spent on.
Try it out

8. Extra contribution of Rs 12,90,000/- less extra standing cost of Rs 24,40,000/- is exactly the Rs 11,50,000/- the profit fell by, with no residue. What does that subtraction confirm about the strategy behind the commitment?

Where this sits

What India supplies here, and what it does not

The Indian contribution is small and quickly listed: rupees, the habit of grouping large numbers in lakh and crore, the two words that follow a private company's name, and a school calendar deciding which months a register maker takes orders in. There is also a public register into which companies lodge their yearly accounts, mentioned purely because it exists. The mechanism is fully universal: a commitment that arrives every year is a standing cost in every country, a position is a sentence or it is not one anywhere, and the observation that only the last link of the chain reaches a set of accounts holds wherever accounts are kept.

No filing rule, threshold, level or interval bears on anything in this guide. Anybody wanting the position as it stands on the day of reading goes to the live text that same day and writes the date next to whatever is lifted out of it.

The edge of this guide. What it covers is three things a reader is asked to treat as one word, being what a business decided to be, the checkable outcome that follows from it, and the money committed to reach it, plus which of the three one invented business actually publishes. The chain attaches no likelihood to anything, scores nothing, names no real business, puts no value on the commitment and returns no verdict on whether the money was well spent. Fourteen further questions land on this subject from every side, each of them treated separately, and the two columns pair them up.

The question the reader arrived withRead instead
What the risks sitting inside an operation are, and why one outside movement lands differently on two businessesBusiness Risk: The Risks That Sit Inside the Operation
What could honestly have been established before the money moved, and what would have to be true for it to payHow to Evaluate a Strategic Initiative Before It Is Taken
Choosing between courses of action, and whether a set of choices hangs togetherCorporate and Business Strategy Compared: Where and How to Win
What happens when a chosen course is carried out badlyHow Execution Risk Can Change a Strategy's Outcome
Building out what a business would look like under a different set of conditionsHow to Build Business Scenarios for a Company
Telling a risk that changes what a business owes from one that changes what a business isStrategic Risk vs Financial Risk: Where Each One Bites
Recording exposures as ordered rows, and deciding the order before writing a wordThe Business Risk Register: Recording What Could Go Wrong
Plotting two published measurements against each other without supplying a thirdHow to Build a Strategic Risk Matrix Without Inventing a Number
Writing up the record of a business and the field it trades inHow to Write a Business and Industry Case Study
Estimating how likely something is, without inventing precisionLikelihood: Estimating Probability Without False Precision
Turning an identified risk into a rated positionRisk Assessment: From Identification to a Rated Position
What may be done about a risk once it is written down, and the four ways of dealing with oneThe Four Risk Treatments
Who is accountable for a named riskThe Risk Owner: The Named Person Accountable for a Risk
How much risk an organisation will carry, and where it draws its limitsRisk Appetite, Tolerance, Capacity and Limits
Risk Management Program Bootcamp — Fin Maverick

What can a reader check here, and what was written for teaching?

Two rows, and neither of them supplies a number. One names a public register for the fact that it exists at all; the other says plainly that every rupee above was written rather than filed. Between them they stand behind one sentence: no form a business fills in anywhere asks it to write down what it decided to be, so the two blank rows above are a fact about paperwork rather than a verdict on anybody.

The source namedSiteNamed for what, and how it is handled here
Ministry of Corporate Affairsmca.gov.inNamed for the existence of the public register through which companies file their yearly accounts, and for nothing else. The register stands behind exactly one sentence: nothing a business lodges anywhere asks it to state what it decided to be.
The arithmetic abovefinmaverick.comEvery amount, count and reading in this guide was set down for teaching. None was read off a lodged document, a survey or a trade study, and none belongs to a business anybody could look up.

Anjani Stationers Private Limited, Chitra Binding Works Private Limited and the Sunrise Public School group are invented.
Educational material. Not advice on any investment, tax, budget or market position.

Covered in this topic

Subtopics

Strategic ObjectiveStrategic Initiative
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