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Equity Research Analyst · CoreTrack
1Financial Accounting, Reporting & Analysis
iAccounting System and Standards
Financial AccountingDebits and CreditsAccrual and Cash AccountingAccounting Policies, Estimates and…The Matching PrincipleDouble-Entry AccountingGoing ConcernInd AS and IFRSWhy Two Honest Companies…
iiFinancial Statement Architecture
The Three Financial StatementsConsolidated Financial StatementsStandalone and Consolidated Statements…How to Read a…How to Perform Trend…Which Accounting Rules Apply…
iiiIncome Statement, Profitability and Tax
The Income StatementRevenue vs Income vs ProfitHow to Read an Income StatementThe Profit LadderEBITDA and EBIT Compared,…EBIT vs EBT vs PATOperating ExpenditureTax-Loss CarryforwardWhy a Company's Effective…Deferred TaxDiluted EPSEffective Tax Rate
ivBalance Sheet and Capital Employed
The Balance SheetAsset TypesCapital EmployedReturn on Capital EmployedLiabilitiesBook ValueRetained EarningsOff-Balance-Sheet FinancingHow to Read a Balance SheetTangible Net Worth
vCash Flow and Liquidity
The Cash Flow StatementOperating, Investing and Financing…Operating Cash FlowProfit vs Cash FlowCash Flow From Operations vs EBITDARevenue Growth vs Operating Cash FlowHow to Read a Cash Flow StatementHow to Reconcile Cash…
viRevenue, Receivables and Working Capital
The Working Capital CycleThe Working Capital CycleReturn on Invested CapitalHow Working Capital Affects Cash FlowAccrued and Deferred RevenueRevenueHow to Analyse Revenue QualityAccounts PayableAccounts ReceivableExpected Credit Loss
viiInventory, Cost Accounting and Margins
Cost AbsorptionInventoryCost of Goods SoldFIFO vs Weighted Average CostAmortised Cost vs Fair ValueInventory Write-DownsMargin AnalysisContribution MarginOperating LeverageGross Profit vs Gross MarginHow to Analyse Profit MarginsHow to Interpret Operating…
viiiFixed Assets, Leases and Intangibles
DepreciationDepreciation MethodsAmortisation vs DepreciationAsset ImpairmentCapital ExpenditureAsset Efficiency and Capital IntensityProperty, Plant and EquipmentIntangible AssetsOperating Lease vs Finance…How to Analyse Capex…Why Capitalising Costs Increases…
ixDebt, Equity and Financial Instruments
Equity on the Balance SheetDebt TypesNet Debt and LeverageDebt vs Equity Accounting ClassificationHow to Analyse Debt…Convertible BondsInterest in the AccountsShare CapitalShare DilutionHybrid Instruments
xConsolidation and Business Combinations
ControlSubsidiaryGoodwillAssociate CompanyJoint Venture vs Associate…Intercompany EliminationsThe Equity MethodHow to Analyse Group…
xiCash, Investments and Financial Assets
Cash and Cash EquivalentsHow to Analyse Cash…The Fair Value HierarchyHow to Interpret a…Financial Asset ClassificationMarketable Securities and Short-Term Investments
xiiFinancial Ratios and Performance Diagnostics
Return on CapitalDuPont AnalysisHow to Perform Common-Size AnalysisDebt to EquityLiquidity RatiosLeverage and Coverage RatiosReturn on Equity and the DuPont DecompositionWhich Financial Ratios Matter…
xiiiEarnings Quality, Red Flags and Forensics
Earnings QualityHow to Prepare for…Channel StuffingEarnings ManagementHow to Analyse Related-Party…How to Spot Accounting…Why Frequent Exceptional Items…What an Auditor Change…
xivAnnual Reports, Notes and Disclosure Reading
Notes to the AccountsManagement Discussion and AnalysisSegment ReportingShareholding PatternPro Forma FinancialsAnnual Report vs Investor…How to Read an Annual Report
xvAudit, Assurance and Reporting Reliability
The Statutory Audit and the AuditorAudit MaterialityEmphasis of MatterFinancial RestatementInternal AuditLimited ReviewKey Audit MattersInternal Controls Over Financial ReportingThe Audit OpinionAuditor Independence
2Business, Industry & Company Analysis
iBusiness Fundamentals and Models
The Business EcosystemThe Business ModelStakeholdersThe Business Life CyclePlatform BusinessesHow to Build a…The Value NetworkMonetisationUnit EconomicsThe Profit PoolTake RateB2B vs B2C
iiRevenue and Pricing
The Revenue ModelRevenue Growth vs Monetisation…Pricing PowerRecurring RevenueAverage Revenue Per UserARPU vs Average Order ValuePrice DiscriminationGross Margin vs Contribution MarginFixed Costs vs Variable Costs
iiiOperating Model and Supply Chain
The Operating ModelThe Value ChainThroughputThe Supply ChainVertical IntegrationVertical vs Horizontal IntegrationProcurementCapacity UtilisationJust-in-Time vs Just-in-Case InventoryMake vs Buy
ivCustomers and Brands
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vCompetitive Advantage and Moats
The Sources of Competitive…Competitive RivalryEconomies of Scale and…Network EffectsSwitching CostsCost Leadership vs DifferentiationHow to Test Whether a Moat Is Eroding
viIndustry Structure and Sector Behaviour
Industry TypesConsolidation and FragmentationSubstitutesBuyer PowerSupplier PowerThe Industry Life CycleHerfindahl-Hirschman IndexSector vs IndustryCompany Analysis vs Industry AnalysisCyclical vs Defensive SectorHow to Apply Porter's…How to Analyse Competitive…
viiMarket Size and Addressable Market
Market SizeMarket Concentration vs Market ShareTop-Down vs Bottom-Up Market SizingDemand DriversThe Adoption CurveGrowth DriversMarket FragmentationMarket ShareHow to Interpret Market Share Changes
viiiInnovation and Technology Shift
InnovationResearch and DevelopmentTechnology Adoption and DiffusionThe Product Life CycleProduct Innovation vs Process InnovationDigital TransformationCannibalisationDisruptive InnovationThe Technology S-Curve
ixCorporate and Business Strategy
Corporate and Business Strategy ComparedHow to Build Business…How Execution Risk Can…Organic and Inorganic Growth ComparedGrowth Investment vs Capital ReturnOrganisation Design and TransformationHorizontal vs Conglomerate DiversificationCentralised vs Decentralised OrganisationCompany Research vs Investment ResearchHow to Separate Facts,…
xManagement and Governance Quality
Management QualityFounder-Led vs Professional ManagementThe PromoterThe BoardInstitutional OwnershipPromoter Ownership vs Institutional…The Agency ProblemIndependent DirectorsInsider OwnershipHow to Analyse Ownership…How Capital Allocation Shapes…
xiStrategic and Business Risk
Business RiskPlatform vs Pipeline BusinessAsset-Light vs Asset-Heavy vs…Commodity vs Branded BusinessHow to Write a…The Business Risk RegisterStrategy in PracticeStrategic Risk vs Financial RiskHow to Evaluate a…How to Build a…
xiiBusiness Research Method
Business AnalysisCompany Filings as a Research SourceCompetitor MappingThe Variant ViewPrimary ResearchPrimary vs Secondary Research
3Corporate Finance & Valuation
iCorporate Finance Fundamentals
Corporate FinanceCorporate Finance vs AccountingAgency CostsThe Financial ObjectiveThe Financing DecisionThe Investment DecisionProfit Maximisation vs Value…How Capital Allocation Affects…
iiTime Value of Money
Time Value of MoneyTime Value of MoneyCompoundingNominal and Effective Annual RatesThe Discount RateNominal vs Real Discount RateAnnuity vs Perpetuity
iiiCash Flow and Value Drivers
ReinvestmentReinvestment RateRevenue GrowthRevenue Growth vs ReinvestmentReturns in Corporate FinanceValue DriversOperating MarginEconomic ProfitFCFF vs FCFEHow to Normalise Earnings…
ivCost of Capital
The Cost of CapitalCost of CapitalSunk Cost vs Opportunity CostHow to Estimate a…Levered and Unlevered BetaCountry Risk PremiumEquity Risk PremiumThe Risk-Free Rate
vCapital Structure
Capital StructureHow to Analyse a…Financial LeverageOperating Leverage vs Financial…RecapitalisationDebt FinancingDebt CapacityGross Debt vs Net DebtEquity FinancingHow Leverage Can Increase…Refinancing RiskFinancial Distress
viCapital Budgeting
Capital BudgetingSunk CostsDiscounted PaybackPayback vs Discounted PaybackNet Present ValueInternal Rate of ReturnProject AppraisalIndependent vs Mutually Exclusive…How to Resolve NPV and IRR Conflicts
viiWorking Capital Finance
Capital RationingWorking Capital FinancingExcess CashCash ManagementShort-Term Financing
viiiPayout Policy
Payout PolicyPayout and Return of CapitalDividendsDividend Yield vs Payout RatioSignallingShare BuybacksDividend vs Buyback
ixValuation Fundamentals
ValuationValuation RangeFCFF vs FCFE ValuationSOTP vs Consolidated ValuationHow to Build a DCF ValuationHow to Build a…How to Build a…Firm Value and Equity ValueReplacement CostShareholder ValueEnterprise-to-Equity Value BridgeSum-of-the-PartsEnterprise Value vs Equity ValueValue vs PriceAsset Value vs Earnings ValueBook Value vs Adjusted Book ValueLiquidation Value vs Going-Concern…
xDiscounted Cash Flow
Discounted Cash FlowTerminal ValueNormalisationThe Forecast HorizonIncremental Cash FlowFree Cash Flow to FirmDiscounted Cash FlowBase Case vs Bull Case vs Bear CaseTwo-Stage vs Three-Stage DCFForward vs Historical FinancialsOperating vs Non-Operating AssetHow to Forecast Free Cash FlowHow to Audit a DCF Model
xiRelative Valuation
Relative ValuationDCF vs Relative ValuationConglomerate DiscountComparable Company AnalysisHow to Select Comparable CompaniesTrading MultiplesTrading Multiples
xiiTransaction Valuation
Transaction ValueDeal Value vs Enterprise ValueSources and UsesAccretion and DilutionHow to Analyse Accretion…Leveraged BuyoutManagement RolloverMinority Interest in ValuationControl Premium vs Minority DiscountPrecedent TransactionsLBO ReturnsTrading Comps vs Precedent TransactionsStrategic Buyer vs Financial BuyerHow to Build an…
xiiiValuation Discipline
Decision Rules in ValuationHow Valuation Ranges Improve…Implied AssumptionsImplied GrowthBase, Bull and BearScenario vs Sensitivity AnalysisMargin of SafetyHow to Check Discount…
4Public Equities & Securities Analysis
iEquity Research Fundamentals
Equity ResearchHow to write an…How to build an…SecuritiesCommon StockSecurity AnalysisEquity vs Debt SecurityEquity Research vs Security AnalysisThe ShareholderPreferred StockHow Market Price, Value…
iiEquity Markets and Listings
The Public CompanyPublic vs Private CompanyHow Listing Changes a…BuybackBuyback vs Rights IssueFollow-On OfferingIPO vs Follow-on OfferingThe Primary MarketThe Secondary MarketBonus Issue vs Stock SplitHow to read an…How Corporate Actions Affect…
iiiMarket Data and Liquidity
Market PriceFair Value vs Market PriceHow to Read Equity…How Liquidity Affects Equity…Volume, Delivery Volume and TurnoverMarket Capitalisation, Free Float…Market Capitalisation and Free FloatShare PricePrice Return and Total ReturnVolume Growth vs Price GrowthPrice Return vs Total ReturnHow to Analyse Share…Market DepthVolatility in Equity MarketsLiquidity vs VolatilityThe IndexTrading ActivityLarge, Mid and Small…
ivSector Research
Sector ResearchSecular GrowthSecular vs Cyclical GrowthCompetitive PositionSector DriversThe ThemeThematic ResearchTop-Down vs Bottom-Up ResearchSector vs Thematic ResearchHow to Research a Listed Company, in OrderHow to Update Research…
vEarnings Analysis
GuidanceHow to Read Management…The Revenue BuildConsensusDriver-Based ForecastingThe Forecast ModelGuidance, Forecast, Estimate and ResultThe Margin BuildHow to Read an…How to Find and…How Business Drivers Travel…
viQuality of Earnings
Quality of EarningsRevenue Growth vs Earnings GrowthRecurring vs Non-Recurring EarningsReading an Earnings Release,…How to Read an…One-Off ItemsAdjusted EBITDAReported vs Adjusted EarningsEBITDA vs Free Cash FlowDisclosure QualityEarnings Quality Checks You…Accounting Red Flags
viiValuation Application
The Target a Share…Implied ExpectationsUpsideDownsideThe MultipleThesis DisciplineDiscounted Cash Flow and MultiplesThesis Risk and Valuation RiskHow Valuation Ranges Inform…
viiiResearch Thesis and Models
The Investment ThesisModel AssumptionsHow to build an…Thesis DriversFact vs ThesisCatalysts and the Expectation GapDisconfirming EvidenceTime HorizonVariant PerceptionRe-RatingScenario vs SensitivityConfidence vs CertaintyHow Estimate Revisions Can…
ixCorporate Events
Corporate Events and ActionsCorporate Event vs Research CatalystMergers From a Research PerspectiveEvent RiskAcquisitions From a Research PerspectiveOrganic vs Acquisition-Led GrowthManagement ChangeCapital RaisesCorporate Action Adjustment
xGovernance and Disclosure
Material DisclosureDisclosure vs DisclaimerInsider TransactionsPromoter HoldingGovernance SignalsBoard Independence vs Management…
xiResearch Discipline and Cases
Research CoverageResearch OutputResearch Note vs Research ReportHow to Run an…How Research Post-Mortems Improve…The Peer GroupPeer Group vs Coverage UniverseThe Recommendation in Sell-Side ResearchFact Checking ResearchFact vs Opinion in ResearchThe Quarterly ResultResearch Independence

Product Innovation vs Process Innovation: Which One Pays

Both changes cost money, and both are earned back out of contribution. The two part on where that contribution has to come from. A change to how something is made is earned back against volume that already sells. A change to what is sold has to find volume nobody is buying yet. Same rupees out, two entirely different jobs to bring them home, and only one of those jobs needs a stranger to say yes.

Both cost money, so where do these two actually part company?

Two definitions and a table with a column each would be the obvious way to tell these two apart. Each kind of change is defined, told apart from the other, and split on what a change touches rather than on how clever it looks, under Innovation: The Types and Which Ones Threaten Incumbents, where both are taught at length with the case worked. Neither definition settles what follows.

A single question survives both definitions without either one asking it. Both kinds of change cost money. So what is each one earned back out of, and out of which volume? Recovery, not meaning, is what separates the two.

The same split shows up on an ordinary road. There are two ways to make a tea stall better. The first is a kettle that boils in half the time, and it gets earned back on the cups already going out every morning, to the same regulars, on the same road, with nobody outside the stall having to change their mind about anything. The second is a snack the stall has never sold. The same notes leave the till in both cases. Only one of the two needs a stranger to decide, for the first time, to buy something they have never bought.

With those two beside each other, the shape of everything below is already visible. The kettle's return sits inside a queue that exists. The snack's return sits in a queue nobody has joined. That one difference is worked first on published figures and then again on a case where the word process turns out to settle nothing whatever.

Try it out

What separates the two kinds of change?

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What is any change earned back out of, and at what rate?

No hedging is needed for what follows, so take it in one clean passage. A change costs a sum. The sum arrives in the standing baseSpending that arrives at the same size whether a year turns out busy or quiet. Rent, a salary bill and a building lease all belong to it, and which costs qualify is worked out elsewhere in these notes., the spending that turns up at the same size whether the year is busy or quiet. And it comes back one unit at a time, out of what each unit leaves behind after everything that moves with output has been paid.

Anjani Stationers Private Limited, invented for these notes and trading nowhere, makes hard-bound registers. One register carries Rs 46.20/- of contributionWhat a single sale leaves behind once every cost that rises and falls with output has been taken off it. Price less the costs that move, counted one unit at a time., a published figure. The year's published output is 2,50,000 registers. The two multiplied together give Rs 1,15,50,000/-, exactly the contribution that year published. The multiplication is not decoration. It checks that the two figures belong to the same year and the same works, and a count built on figures that failed that check would be a count built on nothing.

So here is the recovery division, in words before it is in figures: rupees added to what stands still, divided by contribution a unit, gives units of recovery. The honest unit of any recovery is a count of units, not a period. A period would need a rate at which those units arrive, and these notes publish no rate of arrival for anything at all. So no length of time is computed here. The arrival of the units is precisely the unknown thing, and putting a number of months on it would bury the one gap a reader most needs to see.

Rupees added to what stands still, read as a count of registers THE PUBLISHED RISE Rs 24,40,000/- 52,813.85 registers 52,813.85 registers 0 Rs 10,00,000/- Rs 30,00,000/- Rs 50,00,000/- 10% 20% 30% 40% the same count, read as a share of the year's 2,50,000 registers ONE RATE TURNS RUPEES INTO REGISTERS. WHICH REGISTERS IS A SEPARATE QUESTION.
Rupees added to what stands still convert into a count of registers at one published rate, and that count read against the year's volume is the size of the recovery job.
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What does the one published rise in standing cost take to earn back?

Exactly one movement in what stands still is published for this works. The standing base went from Rs 49,60,000/- in the earlier year to Rs 74,00,000/- in the published year, a rise of Rs 24,40,000/-. Earn that back at Rs 46.20/- a register and it takes 52,813.85 registers of contribution in a year, or 21.13 per cent of the 2,50,000 registers the works turned out that year.

Now say what that figure is and, in the same breath, what it is not. The count is the size of the recovery job, measured in the only unit that carries any contribution at all, and it is not a statement about what the money went on. The account publishing that rise does put the three lines it sits in on the record, each with a figure against it: Rs 6,00,000/- more of employee benefits, Rs 11,40,000/- more in the standing half of other operating costs, mostly the year's second warehouse, and Rs 7,00,000/- more of depreciation and amortisation against assets bought. The three added together come back to Rs 24,40,000/- to the rupee, and the source carrying them marks that split an estimate rather than a disclosure. Which line a rupee landed in, though, is not which kind of change bought it, so which kind of change any of it was stays unstated, and from outside a set of filed accounts that distinction is invisible. Why it is invisible is settled elsewhere in these notes under Research and Development: Spending Today for Revenue Later.

Rupees in, registers out, and the note that has to travel with the answer A RISE IN WHAT STANDS STILL Rs 24,40,000/- Rs 49,60,000/- to Rs 74,00,000/- / WHAT ONE REGISTER LEAVES Rs 46.20/- published, the same year = REGISTERS OF CONTRIBUTION 52,813.85 in a year, to stand where it stood THE NOTE THAT TRAVELS WITH THE FIGURE Both the rise and the count are priced at the published year's contribution a register. READ AGAINST THE YEAR THE WORKS ACTUALLY TURNED OUT 52,813.85 of 2,50,000 registers, which is 21.13 per cent THIS IS THE SIZE OF THE JOB. IT IS NOT A STATEMENT ABOUT WHAT THE MONEY WENT ON.
A rise of Rs 24,40,000/- in what stands still, earned back at Rs 46.20/- a register, takes 52,813.85 registers of contribution a year, which is 21.13 per cent of the 2,50,000 the works turned out.

Both the rise and the count are priced at the published year's contribution a register. The earlier year's contribution a register is not published, and its marginThe share of a sale price left standing after a stated group of costs has been taken off. Which costs are taken off is the whole of what a margin's name conveys, and the naming is settled elsewhere in these notes. differs. The pricing note travels with the figure or the figure does not travel. A reader meeting 52,813.85 registers without it cannot tell which year's rate priced a movement spanning two years, and a count whose rate is unknown is not a count at all. It is a shape.

Bring it home to a kitchen table. A household takes on a fixed monthly instalment and works out how many extra shifts would cover it. The shift count is honest arithmetic and takes a minute with a phone. Whether those shifts are on offer is a completely different question, nobody at the table can answer it, and it is the one that decides the year.

Try it out

A standing base rises by Rs 24,40,000/- where each register carries Rs 46.20/- of contribution. How many registers of contribution does that rise take to earn back, and what has to travel with the figure?

Which volume earns it back, and does that volume already exist?

Take that count, 52,813.85 registers, and ask the one question nobody has asked yet. Where do those registers come from?

For a change to how something is made, landing where the rate of the works is actually settled, the registers are already selling. The recovery is a slice of a block that exists. The slice can be set beside the order bookOrders taken and not yet delivered against. What sits there is a set of commitments other people made, which is exactly what separates it from a forecast., argued about with delivery notes on the table, and nobody outside the building has to do anything at all for the slice to be there. It was there before the proposal was typed.

For a change to what is sold, the registers are not there. The recovery is a block hanging off the end of the year with nothing underneath it, and every register inside it is a register somebody who is not yet a customer has to agree to buy. The same count means two completely different things depending on which side of the business's own volume it sits.

One count of registers, drawn twice, in two different places LANDING ON THE WAY THINGS ARE MADE 52,813.85 the rest of the registers that were selling anyway 2,50,000 registers the works already sells. The recovery is a slice cut out of them. Nobody outside the building has to do anything for this block to exist. LANDING ON WHAT IS SOLD the same 2,50,000, entirely unchanged by the proposal 52,813.85 The same count, hanging off the end of the year, with nothing beneath it. Every register in it needs somebody who is not a customer to agree to buy. SAME LENGTH, SAME ARITHMETIC, TWO COMPLETELY DIFFERENT CLAIMS ABOUT THE WORLD.
The same count means two completely different things depending on which side of the business's own volume it sits.

One sentence of consequence, and then it can stand on its own. One of these two recoveries can be argued about with the business's own records on the table. The other cannot be argued about at all without evidence nobody in these notes holds, and no amount of care with the arithmetic will supply it.

Try it out

The panel below moves the rupees added to what stands still. Which drawing changes as the control moves, and how?

Play with it

Move the rupees, and watch one count land in two places at once

At every setting the rupees added are divided by the published Rs 46.20/- a register, and that single answer is then drawn twice: once as a slice cut out of the registers the works already sells, and once as a bar of exactly the same length hanging past the end of them. The block of existing volume never changes size at any setting, and that is the second thing worth watching.

Added: Rs 24,40,000/-takes 52,813.85 registers of contributionwhich is 21.13 per cent of 2,50,000

At the published rise of Rs 24,40,000/- LANDING ON THE WAY THINGS ARE MADE: A SLICE OF REGISTERS ALREADY SELLING 2,50,000 registers, unchanged at every setting LANDING ON WHAT IS SOLD: THE SAME COUNT, BEYOND THE END OF THEM 0 1,00,000 2,00,000 3,00,000 4,00,000 registers, on one scale drawn once and never stretched THE TWO BARS ARE ALWAYS THE SAME LENGTH AND NEVER IN THE SAME PLACE.

Educational illustration. Contribution a register is held at the published Rs 46.20/- at every setting, and that is the published year's figure. The year's volume is held at the published 2,50,000 registers at every setting and never redraws. Rs 24,40,000/- is the published rise in what stands still, and the three lines holding it are priced under operating leverage, at Rs 6,00,000/- for employee benefits, Rs 11,40,000/- for the standing half of other operating costs and Rs 7,00,000/- for depreciation and amortisation. The three add back to the rise exactly and are marked there an estimate rather than a disclosure. Which line held a rupee is still not which kind of change bought it, so this panel treats it as a rise in standing cost and as nothing else. Any other setting is illustration only and matches no figure this library carries. The panel counts units of recovery. A return or a length of time would each need a rate at which units arrive, and no such rate is published anywhere in these notes.

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Two changes of the same kind in one works: why is one worth a great deal and the other nothing?

Throughput, covered separately in these notes, takes this same works and proves why a run of stages turns out what its slowest stage turns out, working three moves on paper to get there. Two of those finished moves are taken up here, with a question that treatment never had to ask: what would each one have had to be earned back against?

In that treatment, cutting runs at 150 registers an hour, printing at 125 and binding at 100, so the works makes 100 an hour and a rated abilityThe ceiling a works sets for itself: its own rate multiplied by the hours it counts as open. Nobody has promised to sell that much, and nobody has promised to make it either. of 4,00,000 registers a year on 4,000 line-hoursOne hour of availability on one production line. Count the lines, count the hours each was open, multiply the two, and that is the year's supply of them., against 2,50,000 registers actually turned out. Two changes are then worked there, and both are worked as supposings rather than as things that took place.

Suppose a faster press took printing from 125 registers an hour to 150. Binding would still take 100 an hour, so the works would still make 100 an hour and would still turn out 2,50,000 registers a year. The return is zero rather than merely small. The cost, meanwhile, would still arrive in the Rs 74,00,000/- that stands still, so the denominator of that recovery would be nothing at all while the number on top of it was entirely unchanged.

Take binding from 100 registers an hour to 125 instead, and rated ability moves from 4,00,000 registers to 5,00,000 on the same 4,000 line-hours, a gain of 1,00,000 registers of yearly ability. The constraintThe one stage in a run of stages that settles how fast the whole run goes. Every other stage waits on it for some part of its time, and which stage it is can move. does not disappear at that point. It relocates. Printing also runs at 125, the two then tie, and passing 125 an hour would need both raised together.

Two changes of the same kind, in the same works, in the same demonstration, are worth 1,00,000 registers of yearly ability and exactly nothing, so the word did no work in either case. The ruling deserves stating without softening. A change to how something is made is earned back against volume that already exists only where it reaches that volume. Where it does not reach it, the denominator is nothing while the cost stands exactly as it was.

Two recovery ledgers for two supposings of the very same kind SUPPOSE THE FASTER PRESS AT PRINTING 125 registers an hour taken to 150 Cost lands in what stands still no machine is priced anywhere in these notes The works would still make 100 an hour Rated ability 4,00,000, unchanged Registers a year 2,50,000, unchanged Extra registers to earn the cost back on NONE EXACTLY NOTHING, NOT A POOR RETURN SUPPOSE THE LIFT AT BINDING 100 registers an hour taken to 125 Cost lands in what stands still no machine is priced anywhere in these notes The works would make 125 an hour Rated ability 4,00,000 becomes 5,00,000 On the very same 4,000 line-hours Yearly ability the cost could be earned on 1,00,000 CONSTRAINT MOVES: A TIE AT 125 BOTH LEDGERS ARE SUPPOSINGS WORKED ELSEWHERE. NEITHER IS A THING THAT HAPPENED. This works runs at 100 an hour and its rated ability is 4,00,000 registers.
Two changes of the same kind, in the same works, in the same demonstration, are worth 1,00,000 registers of yearly ability and exactly nothing, so the word did no work in either case.

Figures this vivid crowd out the plain fact, so state it plainly. Neither move happened. Both are worked elsewhere as demonstrations. The business's rated ability is 4,00,000 registers, its works runs at 100 an hour, and no source says it bought a press or lifted a stage.

Try it out

In the throughput treatment, a faster press would take printing from 125 registers an hour to 150 and the works would still make 100 an hour. What does that establish about the two kinds of change?

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Which of the two returns can be worked out before anybody buys anything?

The plain answer flatters the wrong side, so answer it plainly first and then turn it over. The return on a change to how something is made, landing where the rate is settled, closes on figures that never leave the building: three stage rates, a count of hours, and what one unit leaves behind. Every one of those is a fact the works already holds about itself, written down somewhere in its own records.

The return on a change to what is sold needs one figure that sits in no ledger anywhere. The figure is a count of the people who are not buying today and would start. The count is not hard to find. The count has never been taken. No survey, no filing and no trade paper carries it for this works or for any other, and an appraisalThe piece of work done before a decision, putting a figure on what something would be worth if it went ahead. It is a claim about the future written in units, so the units decide what evidence it needs. that needs it is an appraisal with a hole in the middle. One appraisal closes on figures that never leave the building and the other does not close at all without evidence about people who are not customers yet.

What each appraisal needs, and where each figure lives THE FIGURE THE APPRAISAL NEEDS HOW IT IS MADE WHAT IS SOLD The three stage rates INSIDE THE WORKS INSIDE THE WORKS The line-hours in a year INSIDE THE WORKS INSIDE THE WORKS What one register leaves behind INSIDE THE WORKS INSIDE THE WORKS The registers already selling INSIDE THE WORKS INSIDE THE WORKS How many people not buying today would start NOT NEEDED NO FIGURE ANYWHERE THIS ONE CLOSES THIS ONE DOES NOT CLOSE FOUR ROWS THE SAME, ONE ROW DIFFERENT, AND THAT ROW DECIDES EVERYTHING.
One appraisal closes on figures that never leave the building and the other does not close at all without evidence about people who are not customers yet.

Stopping here would leave the first kind looking simply the better one, and it is not. Being computable is not the same as being valuable. A business that only makes the changes it can appraise will make the same kind of change every year, and it will do so through a review that behaves impeccably at every single step. The easier appraisal is the one that gets done, and what gets appraised is what gets proposed. The pull is real, and naming it is not the same as recommending anything.

Try it out

What does a change to what is sold need that a change landing on the stage which sets the rate does not?

Try it out

Which of the two returns can be worked out, before anybody buys anything, from figures the business already holds?

When does the earning back actually start?

Two starting guns, and they are not on the same clock. For a change landing on volume that already sells, the first register counting towards the recovery is a register that was going to be sold anyway. The recovery starts with the next order out of the existing book, more or less at once, and without a single person outside the building being asked for anything.

For a change to what is sold, the first register that counts is the first register somebody agrees to buy. Nothing in these notes says when that is, or whether it happens at all. One recovery starts with an order that already exists and the other starts with a decision somebody else has not made yet.

Two starting guns, and only one of them has been fired THE COST LANDS, IDENTICALLY, IN BOTH MADE EARNING BACK STARTS WITH THE NEXT ORDER ALREADY BOOKED The registers were going to be sold anyway. Nobody is asked for anything. SOLD A DECISION NOT YET MADE Nothing published says when this marker sits, or whether it arrives at all. Time runs left to right and carries no dates, because these notes publish none. SAME COST, SAME MOMENT. TWO STARTING POINTS THAT ARE NOT ON ONE CLOCK.
One recovery starts with an order that already exists and the other starts with a decision somebody else has not made yet.

The obvious next move is then refused, as a matter of evidence rather than of taste. No length of time is worked out here in either case. A period needs a rate at which units arrive, and these notes publish no path, no rate and no future period for anything whatever. A figure supplied at that point would be a made-up number, and it would be the one carrying every ounce of the weight.

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Where does this go wrong when nobody has made a mistake?

The sheet that was right three times and changed meaning on the fourth

A works has approved changes the same way for years, and the method is sound. A proposal arrives carrying a cost. Somebody divides that cost by what one unit leaves behind, gets a count of units, sets the count against the year's volume as a percentage, and the review approves anything whose percentage looks modest.

On the last three proposals the method worked, and worked well. All three landed on the way things were made, and the units in the denominator were units already going out of the door every week. Then a proposal arrives for a change to what is sold. The same division is done. The cost is real, the contribution a unit is the published one, the count is arithmetically perfect, and the percentage looks every bit as modest as the last three. The proposal is approved in the same meeting, in the same tone, with the same nod round the table.

The diagnosis that comes first to mind is not the right one, so be precise about what went wrong. Nobody made an arithmetic error, nobody invented a number, and nobody skipped a step of the procedure they had always followed. The denominator changed meaning while the formula stayed exactly where it was. On the first three sheets the units were units already sold. On the fourth they are units nobody has agreed to buy. The sheet leaves room for a percentage and no room at all for where the units came from, so it says nothing whatever about the difference.

The same division produced a claim about the order book three times and a claim about strangers on the fourth, and the number looked the same all four times.

Land the cost somewhere specific rather than saying the decision was worse. The cost has already arrived in the standing base, the part that does not fall back when the volume fails to appear. So a year later the works carries a heavier standing base against the same volume it always had, and the review asks why the new line underperformed. Nobody ever writes down that the sheet could not have answered the one question deciding the outcome.

The uncomfortable part sits here, and it deserves a second read. The track record of the method is precisely what made the error invisible. An unfamiliar method invites challenge from everybody around the table. A method that was right three times running arrives looking pre-checked, and up to a point it genuinely was.

The fix is not a better estimate, and anybody offering one has missed it. The units of the denominator belong on the sheet beside the percentage, and then units already sold and units somebody would have to start buying stop sharing a column.

Four sheets, one formula, and a denominator that changed meaning SHEET ONE cost / what one unit leaves units already selling MODEST approved SHEET TWO cost / what one unit leaves units already selling MODEST approved SHEET THREE cost / what one unit leaves units already selling MODEST approved SHEET FOUR cost / what one unit leaves units nobody has agreed to buy MODEST approved, in the same tone SAME FORMULA, SAME STRENGTH OF PERCENTAGE, FOUR TIMES OUT OF FOUR. Only the fourth denominator hangs over nothing, and the sheet has no column to say so.
The same division produced a claim about the order book three times and a claim about strangers on the fourth, and the number looked the same all four times.
Try it out

A proposal divides its cost by contribution a unit, gets a clean count of units and presents that count as the recovery. When does this reading mislead?

The sheet changed meaning without anybody making a mistake. See what process innovation asks. Bond Pricing and Yield Mechanics — free micro-course from Fin Maverick

What should be asked of any proposed change before its number is looked at?

Four questions, in this order, and the order is the useful part

One. What does it add to what stands still, in rupees, before any benefit is described at all? Take the cost first and take it alone. A benefit described before a cost is stated will always sound proportionate to it.

Two. Which volume is it earned back against, and does that volume already sell? Question two is the central one. The question has two answers, and they are not on a scale between each other.

Three. If it is earned back against volume that already sells, does it actually reach that volume? The faster press exists to force this question. A change can be squarely a change to how something is made and still land where nothing is decided, and then its denominator is nothing while its cost stands.

Four. What would have to be true about people outside this business for the number to hold? Answer with the word nothing where nothing is the honest answer, and write the sentence out where it is not.

A change whose appraisal needs nothing to be true outside the business is not thereby a better change, it is a cheaper one to check.

Run the two supposings through that card and watch where they come apart. Question one prices both, and neither carries a price anywhere in these notes, so both stop at the same place. Question two puts both on volume that already sells, so both pass. Question three separates them completely: one lands on the stage that settles the rate of the works and one does not. Questions two and three between them would have told the two apart before anybody had costed either machine, and that is the entire reason for asking them in that order.

Four questions in a fixed order, run against the two supposings ASK IN THIS ORDER THE PRESS AT PRINTING THE LIFT AT BINDING 1. What does it add to what stands still? a cost, unpriced a cost, unpriced 2. Which volume earns it back? already selling already selling 3. Does it reach that volume? NO YES 4. What must be true outside the business? nothing nothing QUESTION THREE SPLITS THEM, AND NEITHER MACHINE HAS BEEN COSTED YET. AN APPRAISAL NEEDING NOTHING TO BE TRUE OUTSIDE IS CHEAPER TO CHECK, NOT BETTER.
A change whose appraisal needs nothing to be true outside the business is not thereby a better change, it is a cheaper one to check.

Who actually uses this, and how. A lender looking at a works that has just added to what stands still will be told at most which lines rose, never which kind of change they bought, and does not need the second. The lender can divide the rise by contribution a unit and read off the count of units that has to keep arriving before the year merely stands where it stood. An analyst reading an announced change does the same division and then asks the only follow-up that matters. Are those units in the order book already, or is the announcement quietly a claim about people who are not customers? A household weighing up a second-hand delivery scooter against the deliveries it already makes every evening is doing precisely the same arithmetic on a smaller sheet of paper.

Try it out

Which single question, asked of any proposed change, does most to separate the two recoveries?

Where this sits, and what a jurisdiction adds to it

India supplies the currency and one institution, and nothing else here

India supplies the rupee, the lakh and crore way of grouping digits, the legal form Private Limited, and one institution named in the table below for the existence of official statistics gathered about works and factories. India supplies no figure. The mechanism itself is entirely universal: a cost is earned back out of contribution in every market anywhere, and the difference between units already sold and units not yet sold does not depend on which country the works stands in. An Indian capital allowance or a depreciation rate would be a rate written from memory, and how a spend is treated in a set of accounts is a separate subject.

Writing an Investment Thesis teaches you to state a view, name what would break it, and update when that evidence arrives.

What is handed on to other subjects?

The two kinds of change separate on what each one is earned back out of, and that one difference is the whole subject. Seven neighbouring questions belong to other subjects, and the table below says where each of them is taken up.

What a reader may have come forWhere it is taken up in these notes
What each kind of change actually is, and how they are told apartInnovation: The Types and Which Ones Threaten Incumbents
Spending now against revenue arriving later, and how such spending is treated in a set of accountsResearch and Development: Spending Today for Revenue Later
Why a run of stages goes at the rate of its slowest, and how a works rate is built out of three stage rates. Both supposings quoted here belong there, and took place nowhereThroughput: The Rate That Actually Decides Output
How quickly a new thing spreads once it existsTechnology Adoption and Diffusion: What Sets the Pace
Reading one product's own volume and margin over the yearsThe Product Life Cycle: Launch to Withdrawal
Where the new volume comes out of the old product rather than out of nowhereCannibalisation: When Your New Product Eats Your Old One
How much performance a given push actually buysThe Technology S-Curve: Why Progress Slows and Then Jumps

Where the figures here get checked

SourceDocumentHow it is treated hereWhere
Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation Official statistics gathered about works and factories in India Establishes that official statistics on works and factories are gathered and published at all. No national count states what a change to one particular works earns back. mospi.gov.in
The arithmetic worked above Notes written for this library Every rupee amount, hourly rate and count of registers above belongs to Anjani Stationers and to no real business. The two changes worked in the middle are demonstrations carried under throughput rather than things that took place. The count of registers is one published amount divided by another. finmaverick.com

Anjani Stationers Private Limited is invented.
Educational material. Not advice on any investment, tax, budget or market position.

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